A New Test of a Theory about Old Mosquitoes

In vector control, it is widely accepted that killing adult mosquitoes would sharply reduce the proportion of old mosquitoes and cause the greatest changes to malaria transmission. The principle is based on a mathematical model of the sporozoite rate (the proportion of infective mosquitoes) that emphasized changes in mosquito age. Killing adult mosquitoes also reduces mosquito population densities, which are directly proportional to human biting rates (the number of bites, per person, per day). Eect sizes of vector control can be compared using sporozoite rates and human biting rates, which are commonly measured. We argue that human biting rates convey more use- ful information for planning, monitoring and evaluating vector control, and operational research should focus on understanding mosquito ecology

Epidemiology of Malaria in an Area Prepared for Clinical Trials in Korogwe, North-eastern Tanzania.

Site preparation is a pre-requesite in conducting malaria vaccines trials. This study was conducted in 12 villages to determine malariometric indices and associated risk factors, during long and short rainy seasons, in an area with varying malaria transmission intensities in Korogwe district, Tanzania. Four villages had passive case detection (PCD) of fever system using village health workers. Four malariometric cross-sectional surveys were conducted between November 2005 and May 2007 among individuals aged 0-19 years, living in lowland urban, lowland rural and highland strata. A total of 10,766 blood samples were collected for malaria parasite diagnosis and anaemia estimation. Blood smears were stained with Giemsa while haemoglobin level was measured by HaemoCue. Socio-economic data were collected between Jan-Apr 2006. Adjusting for the effect of age, the risk of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia was significantly lower in both lowland urban, (OR = 0.26; 95%CI: 0.23-0.29, p < 0.001) and highlands, (OR = 0.21; 95%CI: 0.17-0.25, p < 0.001) compared to lowland rural. Individuals aged 6-9 years in the lowland rural and 4-19 years in both lowland urban and highlands had the highest parasite prevalence, whilst children below five years in all strata had the highest parasite density. Prevalence of splenomegaly and gametocyte were also lower in both lowland urban and highlands than in lowland rural. Anaemia (Hb <11 g/dl) prevalence was lowest in the lowland urban. Availability of PCD and higher socio-economic status (SES) were associated with reduced malaria and anaemia prevalence. Higher SES and use of bed nets in the lowland urban could be the important factors for low malaria infections in this stratum. Results obtained here were used together with those from PCD and DSS in selecting a village for Phase 1b MSP3 vaccine trial, which was conducted in the study area in year 2008

Impact of seasonality and malaria control interventions on Anopheles density and species composition from three areas of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity

Background Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. Methods From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). Results In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18–0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49–0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002–0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005–0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07–0.33, p < 0.001). Conclusions LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders

Quantification of anti-parasite and anti-disease immunity to malaria as a function of age and exposure.

Fundamental gaps remain in our understanding of how immunity to malaria develops. We used detailed clinical and entomological data from parallel cohort studies conducted across the malaria transmission spectrum in Uganda to quantify the development of immunity against symptomatic P. falciparum as a function of age and transmission intensity. We focus on: anti-parasite immunity (i.e. ability to control parasite densities) and anti-disease immunity (i.e. ability to tolerate higher parasite densities without fever). Our findings suggest a strong effect of age on both types of immunity, not explained by cumulative-exposure. They also show an independent effect of exposure, where children living in moderate/high transmission settings develop immunity faster as transmission increases. Surprisingly, children in the lowest transmission setting appear to develop immunity more efficiently than those living in moderate transmission settings. Anti-parasite and anti-disease immunity develop in parallel, reducing the probability of experiencing symptomatic malaria upon each subsequent P. falciparum infection

Spatial variation and socio-economic determinants of Plasmodium falciparum infection in northeastern Tanzania

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria due to <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Tanzania. According to health statistics, malaria accounts for about 30% and 15% of hospital admissions and deaths, respectively. The risk of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection varies across the country. This study describes the spatial variation and socio-economic determinants of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection in northeastern Tanzania.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was conducted in 14 villages located in highland, lowland and urban areas of Korogwe district. Four cross-sectional malaria surveys involving individuals aged 0-19 years were conducted during short (Nov-Dec) and long (May-Jun) rainy seasons from November 2005 to June 2007. Household socio-economic status (SES) data were collected between Jan-April 2006 and household's geographical positions were collected using hand-held geographical positioning system (GPS) unit. The effects of risk factors were determined using generalized estimating equation and spatial risk of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection was modelled using a kernel (non-parametric) method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was a significant spatial variation of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection, and urban areas were at lower risk. Adjusting for covariates, high risk of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection was identified in rural areas of lowland and highland. Bed net coverage levels were independently associated with reduced risk of <it>P. falciparum </it>by 19.1% (95%CI: 8.9-28.2, p < 0.001) and by 39.3% (95%CI: 28.9-48.2, p < 0.001) in households with low and high coverage, respectively, compared to those without bed nets. Households with moderate and lower SES had risk of infection higher than 60% compared to those with higher SES; while inhabitants of houses built of mud walls were at 15.5% (95%CI: 0.1 - 33.3, p < 0.048) higher risk compared to those living in houses built by bricks. Individuals in houses with thatched roof had an excess risk of 17.3% (95%CI: 4.1 - 32.2, p < 0.009) compared to those living in houses roofed with iron sheet.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There was high spatial variation of risk of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection and urban area was at the lowest risk. High bed net coverage, better SES and good housing were among the important risk factors associated with low risk of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection.</p

Malaria Transmission, Infection, and Disease following Sustained Indoor Residual Spraying of Insecticide in Tororo, Uganda.

Tororo, a district in Uganda with historically high malaria transmission intensity, has recently scaled up control interventions, including universal long-lasting insecticidal net distribution in 2013 and 2017, and sustained indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide since December 2014. We describe the burden of malaria in Tororo 5 years following the initiation of IRS. We followed a cohort of 531 participants from 80 randomly selected households in Nagongera subcounty, Tororo district, from October 2017 to October 2019. Mosquitoes were collected every 2 weeks using CDC light traps in all rooms where participants slept, symptomatic malaria was identified by passive surveillance, and microscopic and submicroscopic parasitemia were measured every 4 weeks using active surveillance. Over the 2 years of follow-up, 15,780 female anopheline mosquitos were collected, the majority (98.0%) of which were Anopheles arabiensis. The daily human biting rate was 2.07, and the annual entomological inoculation rate was 0.43 infective bites/person/year. Only 38 episodes of malaria were diagnosed (incidence 0.04 episodes/person/year), and there were no cases of severe malaria or malarial deaths. The prevalence of microscopic parasitemia was 1.9%, and the combined prevalence of microscopic and submicroscopic parasitemia was 10.4%, each highest in children aged 5-15 years (3.3% and 14.0%, respectively). After 5 years of intensive vector control measures in Tororo, the burden of malaria was reduced to very low transmission levels. However, a significant proportion of the population remained parasitemic, primarily school-aged children with submicroscopic parasitemia, providing a potential reservoir for malaria transmission

Informal Urban Settlements and Cholera Risk in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

In 2008, for the first time in human history, more than half of the world's population was living in urban areas, and this proportion is expected to increase. As a result of poor economic opportunities and an increasing shortage of affordable housing, much of the spatial growth in many of the world's fastest growing cities is a result of the expansion of informal settlements where residents live without security of tenure and with limited access to basic infrastructure. Although inadequate water and sanitation facilities, crowding, and other poor living conditions can have a significant impact on the spread of infectious diseases, analyses relating these diseases to ongoing global urbanization, especially at the neighborhood and household level in informal settlements, have been infrequent. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyzed urban environmental data and the burden of cholera in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We found that cholera incidence was most closely associated with informal housing, population density, and the income level of informal residents. Our analysis suggests that the current growth of many cities in developing countries and expansion of informal settlements will be associated with increased risks to human health, including cholera and other infectious diseases, and underscores the importance of urban planning, resource allocation, and infrastructure placement and management, as the rapidly progressive trend of global urbanization proceeds