Finanspolitikken i lyset af coronakrisen

Coronakrisen har ført til en af de mest markante finanspolitiske indsatser i nyere tid. Artiklen belyser faserne i de anvendte finanspolitiske redskaber. Samlet set vurderes tiltagene inkl. hjælpepakker at være en ”god forretning” for dansk økonomi i den forstand, at understøttelsen af indkomsterne for nulevende generationer overstiger belastningen af fremtidige generationer. Samtidig har det økonomiske tilbageslag og hjælpepakker mv. ikke i nævneværdigt omfang påvirket råderummet frem mod 2025. Vurderingerne skal ses i lyset af, at der er tale om midlertidige tiltag i en ekstraordinær situation med ledige ressourcer, en rente tæt på nul, og hvor den offentlige gæld i udgangspunktet er la

The ECB'S Inflation Objective

The ECB''s objective of medium-term inflation below 2 percent has been portrayed by critics as ambiguous, asymmetric, and excessively stringent. This paper attempts a comprehensive evaluation of the trade-offs for the euro area and finds that: (1) in terms of guiding inflation expectations and policymaking, the current definition has functioned much as would an inflation target centered on 1 1/2-1 3/4 percent; (2) the absence of a specific (point) target for medium-term inflation has encumbered the communication of monetary policy; and (3) a target toward the upper end of the ECB''s price-stability range would seem, at least with the current membership of EMU, to strike a judicious balance between the benefits of price stability, on the one hand, and the need to assist relative price and wage adjustment across EMU and safeguard against deflation, on the other hand.European Central Bank;Price stabilization;inflation, monetary policy, price stability, inflation rates, inflation target, low inflation, central bank, inflation targeting, monetary union, relative price, monetary fund, inflation-targeting, inflation rate, average inflation, price level, real interest rate, inflation objective, rate of inflation, steady-state inflation, real exchange rates, nominal interest rates, high inflation, percent inflation, real interest rates, monetary economics, rates of inflation, gdp deflator, effects of inflation, real rates, relative prices, price mechanism, monetary transmission, wage inflation, aggregate demand, european monetary union, annual inflation, inflation stabilization, monetary policies, lower inflation, nominal interest rate, monetary policy rules, actual inflation, financial stability, inflation process, real variables, money base, national bank, inflation across countries, monetary stabilization, inflation targeting framework, retail price index, monetary policy decisions, monetary policy strategy, maximum inflation rate, monetary unions, monetary transmission mechanism, maximum inflation, average inflation rate, inflationary pressures, money growth, moderate inflation, inflation convergence, monetary policy rule, reduction in inflation, inflation preferences

Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?

This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behavior of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to 1, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New Keynesian Phillips curve. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.