Anomaly Detection for Resonant New Physics with Machine Learning

Despite extensive theoretical motivation for physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM) of particle physics, searches at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have found no significant evidence for BSM physics. Therefore, it is essential to broaden the sensitivity of the search program to include unexpected scenarios. We present a new model-agnostic anomaly detection technique that naturally benefits from modern machine learning algorithms. The only requirement on the signal for this new procedure is that it is localized in at least one known direction in phase space. Any other directions of phase space that are uncorrelated with the localized one can be used to search for unexpected features. This new method is applied to the dijet resonance search to show that it can turn a modest 2 sigma excess into a 7 sigma excess for a model with an intermediate BSM particle that is not currently targeted by a dedicated search.Comment: Replaced with short PRL version. 7 pages, 2 figures. Revised long version will be submitted separatel

A Climatology of Precipitation Displacement Errors in High-Resolution Ensembles

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) are currently the precipitation input used in hydrological models. Utilization of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) instead of QPE as the hydrological model input would improve warning lead times for flash and river flooding and provide emergency managers advanced warning to help mitigate damages. Currently, displacement magnitude errors which can misrepresent the location of impacts limits QPF utilization. This study examines displacement errors in two convective allowing ensembles, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRE) and the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF), to determine generalized displacements errors, as well as if initiation hour displacements might help project the overall displacement of the system, to help improve QPF displacement errors. A systematic westward bias in QPF displacement was found in HRRRE, along with individual biases among certain members of HREF. While a relationship between initiation hour displacements and accumulation displacements is suggested, the nature of that relationship remains unclea

MAMBA: A Measurement Architecture for Model-Based Analysis

Model-based measurement techniques are relevant in the field of software analysis. Several meta models for the specification of quantitative measures have been proposed. However, they often focus either on static or dynamic aspects of a software system. Nevertheless, considering reengineering activities often both dimensions reveal valuable complementary insights. Existing meta models are also frequently bound to specific modeling languages, redefine underlying concepts for any new meta model, or provide only limited tool support for the automated computation of measurements from modeled measures. We present MAMBA, an integrated measurement architecture for model-based analysis---both static and dynamic---of software systems, that can be specified by arbitrary Ecore-based modeling languages. MAMBA extends the Structured Metrics Meta-Model (SMM) by additional modeling features, such as arbitrary statistical aggregate functions and periodic aggregate functions, e.g., for dynamic analysis at runtime. To consider measurements for querying system models, we outline the MAMBA Query Language (MQL) that employs SMM measures. Furthermore, we provide tool support that applies the measures specified in an (extended) SMM model and can integrate raw measurements provided by arbitrary static and dynamic analysis tools to produce the desired measurement model. We demonstrate the applicability of the approach based on three evaluation scenarios from different contexts: migration of software systems into the cloud, model-based engineering of railway control systems, and dynamic analysis for model-driven software modernization

An Optimization Approach to Balancing Risk and Cost in Combatant Command Capability Advocacy

Unified Combatant Commands (UCCs) have broad continuing missions around the globe where they are tasked to provide functional expertise and defense of geographical areas.  Accomplishing these missions requires a robust portfolio of military capabilities (e.g., aircraft, spacecraft, command and control systems, radar systems).  UCCs routinely perform analyses to identify gaps between capabilities required to accomplish their mission and those currently at their disposal.  Each year they submit a prioritized list of required capabilities, including new systems and greater capacity with existing systems, to the Joint Staff in the costly and time-consuming Integrated Priority List (IPL) process.  This process relies on operational art and subject matter expertise, and sometimes fails to identify acquisition opportunities that achieve an optimal balance between risk and cost.  Because this IPL process affects all of the DOD’s personnel, material, systems and missions, it is arguably the most significant analytic challenge faced by the United States military.  This article presents an integer linear programming model that computes an optimal balance between operational risk and the cost of acquiring new capabilities, and allows decision makers to identify the real-world impact of their budgetary decisions.  We apply this model to the mission of providing aerospace defense of the United States and illustrate through sensitivity analysis the meaningful insights that can be gained by studying the relationship between the risk of not achieving 100 percent radar coverage and the opportunity cost of advocating for new capabilities

Genetic correlates of longevity and selected age-related phenotypes: a genome-wide association study in the Framingham Study

BACKGROUND: Family studies and heritability estimates provide evidence for a genetic contribution to variation in the human life span. METHODS:We conducted a genome wide association study (Affymetrix 100K SNP GeneChip) for longevity-related traits in a community-based sample. We report on 5 longevity and aging traits in up to 1345 Framingham Study participants from 330 families. Multivariable-adjusted residuals were computed using appropriate models (Cox proportional hazards, logistic, or linear regression) and the residuals from these models were used to test for association with qualifying SNPs (70, 987 autosomal SNPs with genotypic call rate [greater than or equal to]80%, minor allele frequency [greater than or equal to]10%, Hardy-Weinberg test p [greater than or equal to] 0.001).RESULTS:In family-based association test (FBAT) models, 8 SNPs in two regions approximately 500 kb apart on chromosome 1 (physical positions 73,091,610 and 73, 527,652) were associated with age at death (p-value < 10-5). The two sets of SNPs were in high linkage disequilibrium (minimum r2 = 0.58). The top 30 SNPs for generalized estimating equation (GEE) tests of association with age at death included rs10507486 (p = 0.0001) and rs4943794 (p = 0.0002), SNPs intronic to FOXO1A, a gene implicated in lifespan extension in animal models. FBAT models identified 7 SNPs and GEE models identified 9 SNPs associated with both age at death and morbidity-free survival at age 65 including rs2374983 near PON1. In the analysis of selected candidate genes, SNP associations (FBAT or GEE p-value < 0.01) were identified for age at death in or near the following genes: FOXO1A, GAPDH, KL, LEPR, PON1, PSEN1, SOD2, and WRN. Top ranked SNP associations in the GEE model for age at natural menopause included rs6910534 (p = 0.00003) near FOXO3a and rs3751591 (p = 0.00006) in CYP19A1. Results of all longevity phenotype-genotype associations for all autosomal SNPs are web posted at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/projects/gap/cgi-bin/study.cgi?id=phs000007. CONCLUSION: Longevity and aging traits are associated with SNPs on the Affymetrix 100K GeneChip. None of the associations achieved genome-wide significance. These data generate hypotheses and serve as a resource for replication as more genes and biologic pathways are proposed as contributing to longevity and healthy aging

Tai Chi for Osteopenic Women: Design and Rationale of a Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Post-menopausal osteopenic women are at increased risk for skeletal fractures. Current osteopenia treatment guidelines include exercise, however, optimal exercise regimens for attenuating bone mineral density (BMD) loss, or for addressing other fracture-related risk factors (e.g. poor balance, decreased muscle strength) are not well-defined. Tai Chi is an increasingly popular weight bearing mind-body exercise that has been reported to positively impact BMD dynamics and improve postural control, however, current evidence is inconclusive. This study will determine the effectiveness of Tai Chi in reducing rates of bone turnover in post-menopausal osteopenic women, compared with standard care, and will preliminarily explore biomechanical processes that might inform how Tai Chi impacts BMD and associated fracture risks. Methods/Design: A total of 86 post-menopausal women, aged 45-70y, T-score of the hip and/or spine -1.0 and -2.5, have been recruited from primary care clinics of a large healthcare system based in Boston. They have been randomized to a group-based 9-month Tai Chi program plus standard care or to standard care only. A unique aspect of this trial is its pragmatic design, which allows participants randomized to Tai Chi to choose from a pre-screened list of community-based Tai Chi programs. Interviewers masked to participants' treatment group assess outcomes at baseline and 3 and 9 months after randomization. Primary outcomes are serum markers of bone resorption (C-terminal cross linking telopeptide of type I collagen), bone formation (osteocalcin), and BMD of the lumbar spine and proximal femur (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry). Secondary outcomes include health-related quality-of-life, exercise behavior, and psychological well-being. In addition, kinetic and kinematic characterization of gait, standing, and rising from a chair are assessed in subset of participants (n = 16) to explore the feasibility of modeling skeletal mechanical loads and postural control as mediators of fracture risk. Discussion: Results of this study will provide preliminary evidence regarding the value of Tai Chi as an intervention for decreasing fracture risk in osteopenic women. They will also inform the feasibility, value and potential limitations related to the use of pragmatic designs for the study of Tai Chi and related mind-body exercise. If the results are positive, this will help focus future, more in-depth, research on the most promising potential mechanisms of action identified by this study. Trial registration: This trial is registered in Clinical Trials.gov, with the ID number of NCT01039012

Genetic Correlates of Longevity and Selected Age-related Phenotypes: A Genome-wide Association Study in the Framingham Study

Background: Family studies and heritability estimates provide evidence for a genetic contribution to variation in the human life span. Methods: We conducted a genome wide association study (Affymetrix 100K SNP GeneChip) for longevity-related traits in a community-based sample. We report on 5 longevity and aging traits in up to 1345 Framingham Study participants from 330 families. Multivariable-adjusted residuals were computed using appropriate models (Cox proportional hazards, logistic, or linear regression) and the residuals from these models were used to test for association with qualifying SNPs (70, 987 autosomal SNPs with genotypic call rate ≥80%, minor allele frequency ≥10%, Hardy-Weinberg test p ≥ 0.001). Results: In family-based association test (FBAT) models, 8 SNPs in two regions approximately 500 kb apart on chromosome 1 (physical positions 73,091,610 and 73, 527,652) were associated with age at death (p-value < 10^-5). The two sets of SNPs were in high linkage disequilibrium (minimum r2 = 0.58). The top 30 SNPs for generalized estimating equation (GEE) tests of association with age at death included rs10507486 (p = 0.0001) and rs4943794 (p = 0.0002), SNPs intronic to FOXO1A, a gene implicated in lifespan extension in animal models. FBAT models identified 7 SNPs and GEE models identified 9 SNPs associated with both age at death and morbidity-free survival at age 65 including rs2374983 near PON1. In the analysis of selected candidate genes, SNP associations (FBAT or GEE p-value < 0.01) were identified for age at death in or near the following genes: FOXO1A, GAPDH, KL, LEPR, PON1, PSEN1, SOD2, and WRN. Top ranked SNP associations in the GEE model for age at natural menopause included rs6910534 (p = 0.00003) near FOXO3a and rs3751591 (p = 0.00006) in CYP19A1. Results of all longevity phenotype-genotype associations for all autosomal SNPs are web posted at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/projects/gap/cgi-bin/study.cgi?id=phs000007. Conclusion: Longevity and aging traits are associated with SNPs on the Affymetrix 100K GeneChip. None of the associations achieved genome-wide significance. These data generate hypotheses and serve as a resource for replication as more genes and biologic pathways are proposed as contributing to longevity and healthy aging

“Could You Define That in Bot Terms?” : Requesting, Creating and Using Bots on Reddit

Bots are estimated to account for well over half of all web traffic, yet they remain an understudied topic in HCI. In this paper we present the findings of an analysis of 2284 submissions across three discussion groups dedicated to the request, creation and discussion of bots on Reddit. We set out to examine the qualities and functionalities of bots and the practical and social challenges surrounding their creation and use. Our findings highlight the prevalence of misunderstandings around the capabilities of bots, misalignments in discourse between novices who request and more expert members who create them, and the prevalence of requests that are deemed to be inappropriate for the Reddit community. In discussing our findings, we suggest future directions for the design and development of tools that support more carefully guided and reflective approaches to bot development for novices, and tools to support exploring the consequences of contextuallyinappropriate bot ideas

Flow-Cytometric Phosphoprotein Analysis Reveals Agonist and Temporal Differences in Responses of Murine Hematopoietic Stem/Progenitor Cells

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are probably the best-studied adult tissue-restricted stem cells. Although methods for flow cytometric detection of phosphoproteins in hematopoeitic progenitors and mature cells are available, analogous protocols for HSC are lacking. We present a robust method to study intracellular signaling in immunophenotypically-defined murine HSC/progenitor cell (HPC)-enriched populations. Using this method, we uncover differences in the response dynamics of several phosphoproteins representative of the Ras/MAP-Kinase(K), PI3K, mTOR and Jak/STAT pathways in HSC/HPCs stimulated by Scf, Thpo, as well as several other important HSC/HPC agonists