Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation: Empirical Evidences from Pakistan (1976-2010).

This study empirically verifies the existence of significant relationship between inflation and trade openness for Pakistan using annual time-series data for the period of 1976 to 2010. The basic objective of this study is to examine the Romer‘s hypothesis for Pakistan with real agriculture value added, real exchange rate, real gross domestic product, financial market openness, money and quasi money and used trade openness, import openness and export openness ratios separately as explanatory variables with inflation rate as dependent variables. For this purpose, we have used multivariate Johansen (1998) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Approach and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the expected empirical findings shows that there is a significant positive long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which rejects the existence of Romer‘s hypothesis for Pakistan. JEL classification: B26, E31, P24, P44 Keywords: Trade Openness, Inflation, Unit Root Testing, Multivariate Cointegration Approach, Vector Error Correction Model, Pakista

Maqasid-al-Shariah-based socio-economic development index (SCECDI): The case of some selected Islamic economies / Sana Ullah and Adiqa Kausar Kiani

The main objective of this study is to develop a socio-economic development index (SCECDI), which is composed of social development index (SCDI) and economic development index (ECDI). For the analysis, we have included 14 Islamic countries which are Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and U.A.E for the years 2010 and 2015.Pakistan’s spending on education and health is quite low during last five years on average, while value added agriculture is the highest among all Muslim countries. Meanwhile, spending on health and education in Saudi Arabia is quite high, besides having quite high export value added and capital formation. These are required for better economic development. Highest educational profile is observed in Malaysia, while the employment rate is highest in Kuwait among all. We have diversified the summary profile for all countries of the variables included for the analysis in the study. Expected outcome is that those Islamic economies which have better economic conditions, will have more than 0.50 values for SCECDI, while others may have the value in between 0-0.50. We also demonstrate the importance of SCECDI focusing the dynamic characteristics of all Islamic countries included in the study

STOCK RETURNS PREDICTION BY USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE

Artificial neural networks are extensively used to predict the financial time series. This study implements the neural network model for predicting the daily returns of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE). Such an application for PSE is very rare. A multi-layer perception network is used for the model used in this study, while the network is trained using the Error Back Propagation algorithm. The results showed that the predictive power of the network was performed by the return of the previous day rather than the input of the first three days. Therefore, this study showed satisfactory results for PSE. In short, artificial intelligence can be used to give a better picture of stock market operators and can be used as an alternative or additional to predict financial variables

An Instrument for Measuring National Readiness and Capacity to Participate in Global Knowledge Base Economy

An important question often asked is what are the determinants of science, technology and innovation (STI)? Is STI a measurable quantity? How can it be measured in quantitative terms? To answers                                                          these questions, a Science, Technology and Innovation Index (STII) has been developed for top 100 economies of the world on the basis of GDP, to evaluate, determine and measure the overall scientific, technological and innovative capacity and readiness of a country. The STII relies on four dimensions, each built around two or three pillars, each of which is composed of individual indicators, for a total of 44 STI indicators. The STI index is the average of aggregate of four dimensions. The economies are ranked on the basis of STII values and classified into six groups: i.e. leaders, potential leaders, dynamic adopters, slow adopters, marginalized and laggards. For more meaningful assessment of the STI capacities of nations, it captures the achievement gap of individual countries with the highest achiever. A comprehensive analysis into the strengths and weaknesses in different dimensions of STI capability of eight East - South Asian countries is also provided. The results show that there are significant dispari¬ties between developed and developing nations in STI capacity and its various aspects. STI capacity and achievement gap analysis of individual countries provides useful information for STI policy makers to furnish their STI policies for increasing national capacity, and readiness to participate in the knowledge based economy

STOCK RETURNS PREDICTION BY USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE

Artificial neural networks are extensively used to predict the financial time series. This study implements the neural network model for predicting the daily returns of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE). Such an application for PSE is very rare. A multi-layer perception network is used for the model used in this study, while the network is trained using the Error Back Propagation algorithm. The results showed that the predictive power of the network was performed by the return of the previous day rather than the input of the first three days. Therefore, this study showed satisfactory results for PSE. In short, artificial intelligence can be used to give a better picture of stock market operators and can be used as an alternative or additional to predict financial variables

Impact of Science Technology and Innovation (STI) on Economic Growth and Development: A Case Study of Pakistan

The study reports the case study research about the impact of STI on economic growth and development. 305 scientists responded the questionnaire. Out of 305, 94% (288) confirmed that STI has the impact on economic growth and economic development.  In response to the 2nd question, about the impact of their research on economic growth and development, 85 %(260) scientists supported that STI has the positive impact on economic growth. The STI system of Pakistan is also discussed and found that STI system in Pakistan is very weak. To improve STI system of Pakistan, there is dire need of long-term STI policy. Therefore, at the end of the study on the basis of survey results and STI capacity indicator, the policy recommendations and implications of the study are presented. These recommendations are very useful for STI policy makers and planners for Pakistan as well as developing countries, to improve STI situation.&nbsp

Numerical treatment for mathematical model of farming awareness in crop pest management

The most important factor for increasing crop production is pest and pathogen resistance, which has a major impact on global food security. Pest management also emphasizes the need for farming awareness. A high crop yield is ultimately achieved by protecting crops from pests and raising public awareness of the devastation caused by pests. In this research, we aim to investigate the intricate impacts of nonlinear delayed systems for managing crop pest management (CPM) supervised by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). Our focus will be on highlighting the intricate and often unpredictable relationships that occur over time among crops, pests, strategies for rehabilitation, and environmental factors. The nonlinear delayed CPM model incorporated the four compartments: crop biomass density [B(t)], susceptible pest density [S(t)], infected pest density [I(t)], and population awareness level [A(t)]. The approximate solutions for the four compartments B(t), S(t), I(t), and A(t) are determined by the implementation of sundry scenarios generated with the variation in crop biomass growth rate, rate of pest attacks, pest natural death rate, disease associated death rate and memory loss of aware people, by means of exploiting the strength of the Adams (ADS) and explicit Runge-Kutta (ERK) numerical solvers. Comparative analysis of the designed approach is carried out for the dynamic impacts of the nonlinear delayed CPM model in terms of numerical outcomes and simulations based on sundry scenarios

An empirical analysis of TFP gains in the agricultural crop-sub-sector of NWFP using Malmquist Index approach

Parallel session 3: Technical change and productivity growthPresented at GLOBELICS 2009, 7th International Conference, 6-8 October, Dakar, Senegal.This paper investigates the total factor productivity (TFP) performance of NWFP agriculture crop subsector from 1970 to 2004. It identifies the sources of growth of TFP growth and assesses TFP growth changes in agriculture crop sub-sector. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach is used to estimate the changes in the production frontier. The Malmquist productivity index has decomposed total factor productivity into technological change (TECHCH) and technical efficiency change (EFFCH). TECHCH implies shifts in the frontier or innovation while EFFCH implies catching up to the frontier. Empirical results suggest that the NWFP crop sector features low productivity growth. Catching up is the main driver for TFP growth

Determinants of Female Labor Force Participation

There are many factors related to female entering the labor market. For example, household income, household expenditure, education and status of the head of the household (male/ female). The degree of correlation between each variable and female labor force participation rate varies throughout the country. This study focused on the factors due to which women enter in labor market. Tobit model is used for this analysis. It is concluded that education and household expenditures have positive but insignificant impact on the female LF, whereas household income and head of the household has negative impact on FLF. It is suggested that in order to improve the working condition of female labor force government should take necessary action, for example women education etc

R&D Expenditure as an Accelerator of Economic Growth with Special Reference to Developing Countries

Purpose: In this network age, among the other factors which increase economic growth, the R&D activities, a pivotal and effective factor, carried out by a country. The present study attempts to investigate the empirical R&D expenditure-economic growth nexus in developing and developed economies, and also provides useful insight about how R&D investment works to enhance the economic growth of a country. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this regard, 21 years data of top 100 economies of the world from 1995 to 2015 has been utilized. The Panel ARD Model approach has been preferred to explore the impact of R&D investment on economic growth (GDP). For construction of the estimation model, five different variables are used. In order to accomplish the results, along with analysing the data of 100 countries a whole, analysis has also been made by dividing countries into different categories and groups. Overall, the Panel ARDL test has been performed on nine different groups of countries. Findings: The results reveal that, ceteris paribus, there is a strong positive association between R&D expenditure and economic growth (GDP) in the long-run; 1% increase in GERD leads to 0.07% increase in GDP. However, the impact in the developing countries (0.043%) is lower compared to the developed OECD countries (0.27%). No impact of the R&D expenditure on economic growth is observed in the short-run. Implications/Originality/Value: The study presents some thought-provoking ideas, policy recommendations and implications for the policy makers, planners and researchers, especially in the context of developing economies. &nbsp