Associations of vitamin D binding protein variants with the vitamin D-induced increase in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D

Background: Vitamin D deficiency is a global problem that may be improved by vitamin D supplementation; however, the individual's response to the intervention varies. We aimed to investigate possible genetic factors that may modify the impact of environmental exposure on vitamin D status. The candidate gene variant we investigated was the Gc gene-rs4588 polymorphism at the vitamin D receptor (DBP) locus. Methods: A total of 619 healthy adolescent Iranian girls received 50000 IU of vitamin D3 weekly for 9 weeks. Serum 25(OH) D concentrations, metabolic profiles and dietary intake were measured at baseline and after 9 weeks of supplementation. The genotypes of the DBP variant (rs4588) were analyzed using the TaqMan genotyping assay. Results: Our results revealed that the rs4588 polymorphism might be associated with serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D both at baseline (p value=0.03) and after intervention (p value=0.008). It seemed that the outcome of the intervention was gene-related so that the subjects with common AA genotype were a better responder to vitamin D supplementation (Changes (%) 469.5(427.1) in AA carriers vs. 335.8(530) in GG holders), and carriers of the less common GG genotype experienced a rise in blood glucose after 9 weeks (Changes (%) 0 (1.5)). Our findings also showed that the statistical interaction between this variant and supplementation was statistically significant (intervention effect p-value<0.001 and p-value SNP effect=0.03). The regression model also revealed that after adjusted for potential confounders, likelihood of affecting serum 25(OH)D in individuals who were homozygous for the uncommon allele G was less than those homozygous for the more common AA genotype (OR=4.407 (1.82-8.89); p=0.001). Conclusion: Serum vitamin 25(OH) D following vitamin 25(OH) D3 supplementation appears to be modified by genetic background. The Gc genetic variant, rs4588 encoding the vitamin D receptor seems to influence the response to vitamin D supplementation. Key words: Total 25(OH) D, Supplementation, Gc gene, rs4588

A genetic variant in the cytochrome P450 family 2 subfamily R member 1 determines response to vitamin D supplementation

Background Globally, about 1 billion people have inadequate levels of serum vitamin D and it is prevalent in all ethnicities and age groups. Few foods naturally contain sufficient vitamin D; therefore, most people get their requirements through supplementation. Hence vitamin D status is affected by genetic and environmental determinants including season of measurement, diet habitual, health status, body mass index and concurrent medication. Further studies are necessary to understand how genetic variation influences vitamin D metabolism. We aimed to explore the association between a potential vitamin D-related polymorphism (the rs10766197 polymorphism in the CYP2R1 gene) with the response to supplementation of vitamin D in 253 healthy Iranian girls. Material and method A total of 253 healthy subjects received 50,000 IU of vitamin D3 weekly for 9 weeks. Serum 25(OH)D concentrations and metabolic profiles were measured at baseline and after 9 weeks of supplementation. The genotypes of the CYP2R1 variant (rs10766197) were identified using TaqMan genotyping assays. Results Serum 25(OH)D during the supplementation, increased in all individuals. Subjects with a AA major genotype at this locus had higher vitamin D concentrations after intervention (Changes (%) 448.4% ± 425% in AA vs 382.7% ± 301% in GG). This genetic variant modulated the response to supplementation (p < 0.001 and p-value SNP = 0.05). Regression analysis showed that the probability of affecting serum 25(OH)D, in individuals who had homozygous major allele GG was two-fold higher than carriers of the uncommon allele A (OR = 2.1 (1–4.2); p = 0.03). Interestingly, the Hs-CRP was reduced in AA carries while was elevated in individuals with GG and AG genotypes, after high-dose vitamin D supplementation. Conclusion Changes in serum vitamin D and metabolic profile following high dose supplementation with vitamin D were associated with CYP2R1 polymorphism. Although carriers of the common G allele showed a greater response in the serum vitamin D

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p