Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Optimal treatment duration of glyceryl trinitrate for chronic anal fissure: results of a prospective randomized multicenter trial

Background: Chronic anal fissure (CAF) is a painful condition that is unlikely to resolve with conventional conservative management. Previous studies have reported that topical treatment of CAF with glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) reduces pain and promotes healing, but optimal treatment duration is unknown. Methods: To assess the effect of different treatment durations on CAF, we designed a prospective randomized trial comparing 40 versus 80 days with twice daily topical 0.4% GTN treatment (Rectogesic®, Prostrakan Group). Chronicity was defined by the presence of both morphological (fibrosis, skin tag, exposed sphincter, hypertrophied anal papilla) and time criteria (symptoms present for more than 2 months or pain of less duration but similar episodes in the past). A gravity score (1 = no visible sphincter; 2 = visible sphincter; 3 = visible sphincter and fibrosis) was used at baseline. Fissure healing, the primary endpoint of the study, maximum pain at defecation measured with VAS and maximum anal resting pressure were assessed at baseline and at 14, 28, 40 and 80 days. Data was gathered at the end of the assigned treatment. Results: Of 188 patients with chronic fissure, 96 were randomized to the 40-day group and 92 to the 80-day group. Patients were well matched for sex, age, VAS and fissure score. There were 34 (19%) patients who did not complete treatment, 18 (10%) because of side effects. Of 154 patients who completed treatment, 90 (58%) had their fissures healed and 105 (68%) were pain free. There was no difference in healing or symptoms between the 40- and the 80-day group. There was no predictor of fissure healing. A low fissure gravity score correlated with increased resolution of pain (P < 0.05) and improvement of VAS score (P < 0.05) on both univariate and multivariate analysis. A lower baseline resting pressure was associated with better pain resolution on univariate analysis (P < 0.01). VAS at defecation and fissure healing significantly improved until 40 days (P < 0.001), while the difference between 40 and 80 days was not significant. Conclusion: We found no benefits in treating CAF with topical GTN for 80 days compared to 40 days. Fissure healing and VAS improvement continue until 6 weeks of treatment but are unlikely thereafter. © 2010 Springer-Verlag

Methotrexate withdrawal at 6 vs 12 months in juvenile idiopathic arthritis in remission a randomized clinical trial

Context Novel therapies have improved the remission rate in chronic inflammatory disorders including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Therefore, strategies of tapering therapy and reliable parameters for detecting subclinical inflammation have now become challenging questions. Objectives To analyze whether longer methotrexate treatment during remission of JIA prevents flares after withdrawal of medication and whether specific biomarkers identify patients at risk for flares. Design, Setting, and Patients Prospective, open, multicenter, medicationwithdrawal randomized clinical trial including 364 patients (median age, 11.0 years) with JIA recruited in 61 centers from 29 countries between February 2005 and June 2006. Patients were included at first confirmation of clinical remission while continuing medication. At the time of therapy withdrawal, levels of the phagocyte activation marker myeloidrelated proteins 8 and 14 heterocomplex (MRP8/14) were determined. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to continue with methotrexate therapy for either 6 months (group 1 [n=183]) or 12 months (group 2 [n=181]) after induction of disease remission. Main Outcome Measures Primary outcome was relapse rate in the 2 treatment groups; secondary outcome was time to relapse. In a prespecified cohort analysis, the prognostic accuracy of MRP8/14 concentrations for the risk of flares was assessed. Results Intention-to-treat analysis of the primary outcome revealed relapse within 24 months after the inclusion into the study in 98 of 183 patients (relapse rate, 56.7%) in group 1 and 94 of 181 (55.6%) in group 2. The odds ratio for group 1 vs group 2 was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.82-1.27; P=.86). The median relapse-free interval after inclusion was 21.0 months in group 1 and 23.0 months in group 2. The hazard ratio for group 1 vs group 2 was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.82-1.41; P=.61). Median follow-up duration after inclusion was 34.2 and 34.3 months in groups 1 and 2, respectively. Levels of MRP8/14 during remission were significantly higher in patients who subsequently developed flares (median, 715 [IQR, 320-1110] ng/mL) compared with patients maintaining stable remission (400 [IQR, 220-800] ng/mL; P=.003). Low MRP8/14 levels indicated a low risk of flares within the next 3 months following the biomarker test (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). Conclusions In patients with JIA in remission, a 12-month vs 6-month withdrawal of methotrexate did not reduce the relapse rate. Higher MRP8/14 concentrations were associated with risk of relapse after discontinuing methotrexate. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN18186313.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Does delay in diagnosing colorectal cancer in symptomatic patients affect tumor stage and survival? A population-based observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diagnosing colorectal cancer (CRC) at an early stage improves survival. To what extent any delay affects outcome once patients are symptomatic is still unclear.</p> <p>Our objectives were to evaluate the association between diagnostic delay and survival in symptomatic patients with early stage CRC and late stage CRC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective population-based observational study evaluating daily clinical practice in Northern Holland. Diagnostic delay was determined through questionnaire-interviews. Dukes' stage was classified into two groups: early stage (Dukes A or B) and late stage (Dukes C or D) cancer. Patients were followed up for 3.5 years after diagnosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 272 patients were available for analysis. Early stage CRC was present in 136 patients while 136 patients had late stage CRC. The mean total diagnostic delay (SE) was 31 (1.5) weeks in all CRC patients. No significant difference was observed in the mean total diagnostic delay in early versus late stage CRC (<it>p </it>= 0.27).</p> <p>In early stage CRC, no difference in survival was observed between patients with total diagnostic delay shorter and longer than the median (Kaplan-Meier, log-rank <it>p </it>= 0.93).</p> <p>In late stage CRC, patients with a diagnostic delay shorter than the median had a shorter survival than patients with a diagnostic delay longer than the median (log-rank <it>p </it>= 0.01). In the multivariate Cox regression model with survival as dependent variable and median delay, age, open access endoscopy, number and type of symptoms as independent variables, the odd's ratio for survival in patients with long delay (>median) versus short delay (≤median) was 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 3.0; <it>p </it>= 0.01). Tumor-site was not associated with patient survival. When separating late stage CRC in Dukes C and Dukes D tumors, a shorter delay was associated with a shorter survival in Dukes D tumors only and not in Dukes C tumors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In symptomatic CRC patients, a longer diagnostic and therapeutic delay in routine clinical practice was not associated with an adverse effect on survival. The time to CRC diagnosis and initiation of treatment did not differ between early stage and late stage colorectal cancer.</p

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance: The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required. Objective: To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus. Evidence Review: Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition. Findings: In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535¿000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territor. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence,deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments fornoncommunicable disease and cancer control.The Institute for Health Metricsand Evaluation received funding from the Bill &Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Evaluation and Management of Deficiency of Adenosine Deaminase 2: An International Consensus Statement

IMPORTANCE: Deficiency of adenosine deaminase 2 (DADA2) is a recessively inherited disease characterized by systemic vasculitis, early-onset stroke, bone marrow failure, and/or immunodeficiency affecting both children and adults. DADA2 is among the more common monogenic autoinflammatory diseases, with an estimate of more than 35 000 cases worldwide, but currently, there are no guidelines for diagnostic evaluation or management. OBJECTIVE: To review the available evidence and develop multidisciplinary consensus statements for the evaluation and management of DADA2. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The DADA2 Consensus Committee developed research questions based on data collected from the International Meetings on DADA2 organized by the DADA2 Foundation in 2016, 2018, and 2020. A comprehensive literature review was performed for articles published prior to 2022. Thirty-two consensus statements were generated using a modified Delphi process, and evidence was graded using the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine Levels of Evidence. FINDINGS: The DADA2 Consensus Committee, comprising 3 patient representatives and 35 international experts from 18 countries, developed consensus statements for (1) diagnostic testing, (2) screening, (3) clinical and laboratory evaluation, and (4) management of DADA2 based on disease phenotype. Additional consensus statements related to the evaluation and treatment of individuals with DADA2 who are presymptomatic and carriers were generated. Areas with insufficient evidence were identified, and questions for future research were outlined. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: DADA2 is a potentially fatal disease that requires early diagnosis and treatment. By summarizing key evidence and expert opinions, these consensus statements provide a framework to facilitate diagnostic evaluation and management of DADA2