The effect of strict state measures on the epidemiologic curve of COVID-19 infection in the context of a developing country : a simulation from Jordan

COVID-19 has posed an unprecedented global public health threat and caused a significant number of severe cases that necessitated long hospitalization and overwhelmed health services in the most affected countries. In response, governments initiated a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that led to severe economic and social impacts. The effect of these intervention measures on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are not well investigated within developing country settings. This study simulated the trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic curve in Jordan between February and May and assessed the effect of Jordan’s strict NPI measures on the spread of COVID-19. A modified susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was utilized. The compartments in the proposed model categorized the Jordanian population into six deterministic compartments: suspected, exposed, infectious pre-symptomatic, infectious with mild symptoms, infectious with moderate to severe symptoms, and recovered. The GLEAMviz client simulator was used to run the simulation model. Epidemic curves were plotted for estimated COVID-19 cases in the simulation model, and compared against the reported cases. The simulation model estimated the highest number of total daily new COVID-19 cases, in the pre-symptomatic compartmental state, to be 65 cases, with an epidemic curve growing to its peak in 49 days and terminating in a duration of 83 days, and a total simulated cumulative case count of 1048 cases. The curve representing the number of actual reported cases in Jordan showed a good pattern compatibility to that in the mild and moderate to severe compartmental states. The reproduction number under the NPIs was reduced from 5.6 to less than one. NPIs in Jordan seem to be effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the reproduction rate. Early strict intervention measures showed evidence of containing and suppressing the disease

Prevalence of nicotine dependence among university students in Jordan: a cross-sectional study

Tobacco epidemic is one of the biggest public health threats the world has ever encountered. The objective of this study was to identify the prevalence of nicotine dependence among university students in Jordan and assess factors associated with this dependence.  A cross-sectional study using simple random sampling was conducted among university students from 3 public and 3 private universities selected for their convenience from central, middle, and east Jordan via administering a questionnaire between October 2016 and January 2017. The total number of participants was 892.  The overall nicotine dependence was 51.2%. Correlates to nicotine dependence were studying at an undergraduate level (OR=3.6; 95% CI: 1.4-8.1); studying humanities (OR=1.73; 95% CI: 1.2-2.1); existing of a smoking family member (OR=1.63; 95% CI: 1.5-1.9); starting smoking before age of 15 years (OR=1.60; 95% CI: 1.2-2.1); water pipe smoking (OR=1.48; 95% CI: 1.1-2.0); and studying at governmental universities (OR=1.36; 95% CI: 1.0-1.8).  Several socio-demographic characteristics had an impact on nicotine dependence. Future research is necessary to further improve our understanding of motives for smoking and dependence.&nbsp

Effectiveness of interactive teaching intervention on medical students' knowledge and attitudes toward stem cells, their therapeutic uses, and potential research applications

Background: Stem cell science is rapidly developing with the potential to alleviate many non-treatable diseases. Medical students, as future physicians, should be equipped with the proper knowledge and attitude regarding this hopeful field. Interactive teaching, whereby the teachers actively involve the students in the learning process, is a promising approach to improve their interest, knowledge, and team spirit. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of an interactive teaching intervention on medical students' knowledge and attitudes about stem cell research and therapy. Methods: A pre-post test study design was employed. A six-session interactive teaching course was conducted for a duration of six weeks as an intervention. Pre- and post-intervention surveys were used. The differences in the mean scores of students' knowledge and attitudes were examined using paired t-test, while gender differences were examined using an independent t-test. Results: Out of 71 sixth-year medical students from different nationalities invited to participate in this study, the interactive teaching course was initiated by 58 students resulting in a participation rate of 81.7%. Out of 58 students, 48 (82.8%) completed the entire course. The mean age (standard deviation) of students was 24 (1.2) years, and 32 (66.7%) were males. The results showed poor knowledge about stem cells among the medical students in the pre-intervention phase. Total scores of stem cell-related knowledge and attitudes significantly improved post-intervention. Gender differences in knowledge and attitudes scores were not statistically significant post-intervention. Conclusions: Integrating stem cell science into medical curricula coupled with interactive learning approaches effectively increased students' knowledge about recent advances in stem cell research and therapy and improved attitudes toward stem cell research and applications. Keywords: Arab; Attitudes; Education; Interactive teaching; Jordan; Knowledge; Medical curriculum; Stem cells; Students

Gender differences in waterpipe tobacco smoking among university students in four eastern mediterranean countries

© 2020 Hamadeh R.R. et al. INTRODUCTION Males have a higher prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) than females in most Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries, with a smaller gender gap than that of cigarette smoking. The objective of this study was to determine gender differences among university students with respect to WTS initiation, smoking behavior, tobacco flavors, and expenditure on WTS, in four EMR countries. METHODS A cross-sectional online survey was conducted based on convenient samples of ever waterpipe smokers among university students in four EMR countries (Egypt, Jordan, Occupied Palestinian Territories, and the United Arab Emirates) in 2016. The total samples included 2470 participants. Study participants were invited through flyers, university portals, emails and Facebook, followed by emails with links to the internet survey. RESULTS Females (80.4%) were more likely than males (66.4%, p\u3c0.001) to be in the younger age group (18–22 years) and they were less likely to be current waterpipe smokers (females, 60.0%; males 69.5%, p\u3c0.001). Two-thirds of students across both genders smoked their first waterpipe at the age of 15–19 years, with more females starting with family members. Over one-third of males and 14.9% of the females usually smoked ≥10 heads (p\u3c0.001). About half (46.6%) of females smoked for less than half an hour compared to 30.5% of males (p\u3c0.001). Only 1% of females smoked non-flavored tobacco compared to 11% of males (p\u3c0.001). There was a significant (p=0.05) positive correlation (r=0.808) with respect to tobacco flavor usually smoked between males and females with apple/double apple being the most popular. CONCLUSIONS There were gender differences in WTS in several aspects. The study has implications for educational establishments, tobacco control and women civil society groups, as well as policymakers

Harm perceptions of waterpipe tobacco smoking among university students in five Eastern Mediterranean Region countries: A cross-sectional study

© 2018 Abu-Rmeileh N. INTRODUCTION Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) continues to be very common in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), partially because of cultural acceptance but also because of misconceptions of its harm. This paper aimed to describe the beliefs towards waterpipe harm of university students who smoked waterpipe in five EMR countries. METHODS This study was conducted in 2016 across five EMR countries: Egypt, Jordan, Occupied Palestinian Territories, Oman and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Participants were recruited from among university students in each country. Students’ characteristics, smoking behavior, flavor preference and knowledge of WTS harm were collected using an internet-based survey. Participants were included if they were ever waterpipe tobacco smokers and between 18 and 29 years of age. Bivariate analyses assessed variations in student-perceived WTS harm across the countries. Linear regression analysis was used to assess WTS perceived harm differences between students in the different countries. RESULTS A total of 2 544 university students participated from the five countries. Among ever smoking students, 66% reported WTS in the past 30 days, with the highest proportions (40%) from Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT) and (41%) Jordan. Dual smoking of waterpipe and cigarettes was highest among students from Egypt. Most participants from the five countries had high level of perceived harm related to WTS during pregnancy. Less than 50% of the students believed that WTS could lead to the death of the smoker, can be harmful for non-smokers and have an addictive effect. Female students, those older than 22 years, and those who didn’t smoke waterpipe in the last 30 days significantly had a higher level of WTS perceived harm. Participating students believed that cigarettes are more addictive and contain more nicotine compared to waterpipe. CONCLUSIONS Misperceptions of waterpipe harm are common among university students in the five EMR countries. Immediate public health action is needed, including enforcement of waterpipe tobacco control regulations along with awareness campaigns

Individual-level determinants of waterpipe smoking demand in four Eastern-Mediterranean countries

© 2018 The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. The prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is at alarmingly high levels, especially among young people. The objective of this research was to evaluate the preferences of young adult waterpipe smokers with respect to potential individual-level determinants of waterpipe smoking using discrete choice experiment methodology. Participants were young adult university students (18-29 years) who were ever waterpipe smokers, recruited from universities across four Eastern Mediterranean countries: Jordan, Oman, Palestine and the United Arab Emirates. The Internet-based discrete choice experiment, with 6 × 3 × 2 block design, evaluated preferences for choices of waterpipe smoking sessions, presented on hypothetical waterpipe café menus. Participants evaluated nine choice sets, each with five fruit-flavored options, a tobacco flavored option (non-flavored), and an opt-out option. Choices also varied based on nicotine content (0.0% vs. 0.05% vs. 0.5%) and price (low vs. high). Participants were randomized to receive menus with either a pictorial + text health-warning message or no message (between-subjects attribute). Multinomial logit regression models evaluated the influence of these attributes on waterpipe smoking choices. Across all four samples (n = 1859), participants preferred fruit-flavored varieties to tobacco flavor, lower nicotine content and lower prices. Exposure to the health warning did not significantly predict likelihood to opt-out. Flavor accounted for 81.4% of waterpipe smoking decisions. Limiting the use of fruit flavors in waterpipe tobacco, in addition to accurate nicotine content labeling and higher pricing may be effective at curbing the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Relationship between Peer Pressure and Risk of Eating Disorders among Adolescents in Jordan

Background. The prevalence of disordered eating behaviors (DEBs) have increased worldwide. It is estimated that about 31.6% of Jordanian adolescents developed DEB. Engaging in peer groups is a prominent event in which adolescents try to belong to peers as part of exploring their social identity. Purpose. To assess the relationship between risk of eating disorders and peer pressure among adolescents. Methods. A descriptive, correlational, cross-sectional design utilized multistage cluster sampling technique was used to recruit students from 8th to 10th grades from both sexes from schools in northern Jordan. Data were collected from a self-administered, online questionnaire which was given to 738 participants. Results. The difference in overall mean of the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns (I-PIEC) between adolescents with disordered eating behaviors and normal eating behaviors states was statistically significant. Scores for interaction peer pressure means were statistically higher for girls than for boys; conversely, likeability mean scores were statistically higher for boys than girls. Conclusions. The current findings suggest that healthcare professionals are encouraged to conduct appropriate school-based primary prevention for disordered eating behaviors

Could “trained immunity” be induced by live attenuated vaccines protect against COVID-19? Review of available evidence

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents a severe global public health threat. Caused by SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19 is characterized by high transmission rate that correlates with high viral load. The full clinical spectrum of the illness, the prevalence rates of mild symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, and the case fatality rates are still poorly understood, highlighting the importance of early preventive measures. Unfortunately, appropriate vaccination against SARS-Cov-2 is not yet available. Unless a target vaccine is developed, COVID-19 impacts will be devastating. “Trained immunity” (TI), which could be induced by live attenuated vaccines (LAVs), is a potential public health preventive approach to boost the host immune system. Trained innate immune cells demonstrated phenotypical and functional changes leading them to acquire immunological memory and amplify their responses against subsequent infections. This phenomenon could have important public health preventive implications by harnessing the early immune responses against COVID-19, restricting its progression, and suppressing its infectivity. Some LAVs have induced a broad, nonspecific, protection against unrelated pathogens and decreased mortality from conditions other than the targeted infectious diseases. This review summarizes the relevant literature and 1) emphasizes the role of available LAVs as potential stimulants for TI and 2) proposes this phenomenon as a potential preventive approach against COVID-19 that needs thoughtful consideration and further investigation. Clinical trials in this field are then urgently needed in line of vaccine and treatment unavailability. This is specifically true when considering two evolving scenarios; the virus spread may not diminish with warm weather, and that it will erupt a second-hit severe outbreak next winter

Waterpipe use and cognitive susceptibility to cigarette smoking among never-cigarette smoking Jordanian youth: Analysis of the 2009 Global Youth Tobacco Survey

Introduction: Susceptibility to cigarette smoking, defined as lack of a firm decision to not initiate smoking, predicts youth smoking initiation and experimentation and is a first step in the transition to regular smoking. This study investigated whether waterpipe (WP) smoking, an increasingly prevalent form of tobacco use among Arab adolescents, was associated with increased susceptibility to cigarette smoking. Methods: A secondary analysis of the 2009 Jordan Global Youth Tobacco Survey was conducted to assess the association between WP use and cigarette susceptibility, after adjusting for important confounders. Results: A total of 1,476 youth aged 13-15 years old who had never smoked cigarettes were identified and represented 166,593 never-cigarette smoking Jordanian youth. We found 40% of boys and 29% of girls were susceptible to cigarette smoking, and both boys (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41-1.54) and girls (AOR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.83-2.04) who had ever smoked WP were more susceptible to cigarette smoking than those who never smoked WP. Conclusion: This is the first study to report that WP use may increase youth\u27s susceptibility to initiate cigarette smoking