Dietary dairy product intake and incident type 2 diabetes: a prospective study using dietary data from a 7-day food diary

The consumption of specific dairy types may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes. Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between total and types of dairy product intake and risk of developing incident type 2 diabetes, using a food diary. Methods: A nested case-cohort within the EPIC-Norfolk Study was examined, including a random subcohort (n=4,000) and cases of incident diabetes (n=892, including 143 cases in the subcohort) followed-up for 11 years. Diet was assessed using a prospective 7-day food diary. Total dairy intake (g/day) was estimated and categorised into high-fat (≥3.9%) and low-fat (<3.9% fat) dairy, and by subtype into yoghurt, cheese and milk. Combined fermented dairy product intake (yoghurt, cheese, sour cream) was estimated and categorised into high- and low-fat. Prentice-weighted Cox regression HRs were calculated. Results: Total dairy, high-fat dairy, milk, cheese and high-fat fermented dairy product intakes were not associated with the development of incident diabetes. Low-fat dairy intake was inversely associated with diabetes in age- and sex-adjusted analyses (tertile [T] 3 vs T1, HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.66, 0.98]), but further adjustment for anthropometric, dietary and diabetes risk factors attenuated this association. In addition, an inverse association was found between diabetes and low-fat fermented dairy product intake (T3 vs T1, HR 0.76 [95% CI 0.60, 0.99]; ptrend=0.049) and specifically with yoghurt intake (HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.55, 0.95]; ptrend=0.017) in multivariable adjusted analyses. Conclusions/interpretation: Greater low-fat fermented dairy product intake, largely driven by yoghurt intake, was associated with a decreased risk of type 2 diabetes development in prospective analyses. These findings suggest that the consumption of specific dairy types may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes, highlighting the importance of food group subtypes for public health messages

Changes in waist circumference and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study

Abstract: Background: Measures of abdominal adiposity are strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data are limited and conflicting regarding the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. The main aims of this paper are to investigate the association between changes in waist circumference (WC) and all-cause and CVD mortality and to examine these changes in relation to concurrent changes in weight. Methods: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997, aged 39–79, a number of whom also attended a second examination (1998–2000), and were followed up to 2016 for mortality. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they had WC, weight and height measurements at both time-points; those with a self-reported history of CVD or cancer, body mass index 5 cm were 1.51 (1.29–1.75) and 1.25 (1.06–1.46) respectively. For CVD mortality in men and women with a WCG > 5 cm, the HRs were 1.84 (1.39–2.43) and 1.15 (0.85–1.55) respectively. In analyses of concurrent changes in WC and weight, the greatest risk (HRs) (95% CIs) in men occurred with weight loss and WCG: 1.80 (1.13–2.86) for all-cause and 2.22 (1.03–4.82) for CVD mortality. In women, the greatest risk for both all-cause (HR 1.50 (1.16–1.95)) and CVD mortality (HR 1.81 (1.15–2.85)) was observed in those with weight loss and maintenance of WC (WCM). Conclusions: Objectively measured WCG > 5 cm, was associated with subsequent higher total mortality risk and higher CVD mortality risk in men. Interventions focusing on preventing increase in central adiposity rather than lowering weight per se in later life may potentially have greater health benefits

Mediterranean diet reduces risk of incident stroke in a population with varying cardiovascular disease risk profiles

Background and Purpose: Although some evidence has found that the Mediterranean Diet (MD)is protective for stroke risk, few studies have investigated whether this relationship differs by sex or cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods: We investigated the relationship between adherence to the MD score (MDS),estimated using 7-day dietary diaries (7DD) and risk of incident stroke in an observational prospective population-based cohort study of 23,232 men and women(54.5% women) aged 40-77 years who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer study in Norfolk, UK. Risk of incident stroke was calculated using multivariable Cox-regression, in the whole population, and also stratified by gender and CVD risk profile, using the Framingham Risk Score(FRS). Results: During 17.0 years of follow up (395,048 total person years) 2009 incident strokes occurred. Risk of stroke was significantly reduced with greater adherence to the MDS (Q4 vs Q1 HR 0.83:95% CI 0.74-0.94; P-trend <0.01) in the whole population and in women (Q4 vs Q1 HR 0.78; 95% CI 0.65, 0.93; P-trend<0.01) but not in men (Q4 vs Q1 HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.79, 1.12; P-trend =0.55).There was reduced risk of stroke in those at high risk of CVD and across categories of the MDS (Q4 vs Q1 HR 0.87:95% CI 0.76-0.99; P-trend =0.04).However, this was driven by the associations in women (Q4 vs Q1 HR 0.80:95% CI0.65-0.97; P-trend =0.02). Conclusion: Greater adherence to the MD wasassociated with lower risk of stroke in a UK Caucasian population. For thefirst time in the literature, we also investigated the associations between theMDS in those at both low and high risk of CVD. Although the findings in ourstudy were driven by the associations in women, they have implications for thegeneral public and clinicians for prevention of stroke

apoB/apoA-I Ratio and Lp(a) Associations With Aortic Valve Stenosis Incidence: Insights From the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study.

Background Apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio and lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) are associated with aortic valve stenosis (AVS) disease progression. Clinical characteristics such as age, sex, and presence of concomitant coronary artery disease may strongly modify these associations; however, these effects have not been well defined in longitudinal studies. We set out to assess these associations between apoB/apoA-I ratio, Lp(a), and AVS incidence in a large population study. Methods and Results We analyzed data from 17 745 participants (mean age, 59.2±9.1 years; men, 44.9%) in the EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer in Norfolk Prospective Population Study) population study in whom apoB/apoA-I and Lp(a) levels were measured. Participants were identified as having incident AVS if they were hospitalized or died with AVS as an underlying cause. After a median follow-up of 19.8 years (17.9-21.0 years) there were 403 (2.2%) incident cases of AVS. The hazard ratio for AVS risk was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.19-1.41; P50 mg/dL) remained an independent risk factor for AVS after adjustment for age, sex, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and concomitant coronary artery disease (hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.33-2.19 [P<0.001]). Conclusions In this population study, apoB/apoA-I ratio was associated with risk of AVS incidence, especially in younger and female participants and those without concomitant coronary artery disease. Lp(a) was an independent risk factor for AVS incidence. Interventional trials are needed to investigate whether modulating apoB/apoA-I or lowering Lp(a) can prevent or slow down AVS

Evaluation at scale of microbiome-derived metabolites as biomarker of flavan-3-ol intake in epidemiological studies.

The accurate assessment of dietary intake is crucial to investigate the effect of diet on health. Currently used methods, relying on self-reporting and food composition data, are known to have limitations and might not be suitable to estimate the intake of many bioactive food components. An alternative are nutritional biomarkers, which can allow an unbiased assessment of intake. They require a careful evaluation of their suitability, including: (a) the availability of a precise, accurate and robust analytical method, (b) their specificity (c) a consistent relationship with actual intake. We have evaluated human metabolites of a microbiome-derived flavan-3-ol catabolite, 5-(3',4'-dihydroxyphenyl)-[gamma]-valerolactone (gVL), as biomarker of flavan-3-ol intake in large epidemiological studies. Flavan-3-ols are widely consumed plant bioactives, which have received considerable interest due to their potential ability to reduce CVD risk. The availability of authentic standards allowed the development of a validated high-throughput method suitable for large-scale studies. In dietary intervention studies, we could show that gVL metabolites are specific for flavan-3-ols present in tea, fruits, wine and cocoa-derived products, with a strong correlation between intake and biomarker (Spearman's r = 0.90). This biomarker will allow for the first time to estimate flavan-3-ol intake and further investigation of associations between intake and disease risk

Energy intake at breakfast and weight change: prospective study of 6,764 middle-aged men and women

Abstract Main text 1996 Abstract To investigate the association between percentage of total dail

Mediterranean diet adherence and cognitive function in older, UK adults: The EPIC-Norfolk study

Background In Mediterranean countries, adherence to a traditional Mediterranean dietary pattern (MedDiet) is associated with better cognitive function and reduced dementia risk. It is unclear if similar benefits exist in non-Mediterranean regions. Objective To examine associations between MedDiet adherence and cognitive function in an older, UK population. To investigate whether associations differed between individuals with high versus low cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Design We conducted an analysis in 8009 older individuals with dietary data at Health Check 1 (1993-1997) and cognitive function data at Health Check 3 (2006-2011) of the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk). Associations were explored between MedDiet adherence and global and domain specific cognitive test scores and risk of poor cognitive performance in the entire cohort, and when stratified according to CVD risk status. Results Higher MedDiet adherence defined by the Pyramid MedDiet score was associated with better global cognition (β±SE=-0.012±0.002; P<0.001), verbal episodic memory (β±SE=-0.009±0.002; P<0.001), and simple processing speed (β±SE=-0.002±0.001; P=0.013). Lower risk of poor verbal episodic memory (OR(95%CI)=0.784 (0.641,0.959); P=0.018), complex processing speed (OR(95%CI)=0.739 (0.601,0.907); P=0.004), and prospective memory (OR(95%CI)=0.841 (0.724,0.977); P=0.023) was also observed for the highest versus lowest Pyramid MedDiet tertiles. The effect of a one-point increase in Pyramid score on global cognitive function was equivalent to 1.7 fewer years of cognitive ageing. MedDiet adherence defined by the MEDAS score (mapped using both binary and continuous scoring) showed similar, albeit less consistent, associations. In stratified analyses, associations were evident in individuals at higher CVD risk only (P<0.05). Conclusions Higher adherence to the MedDiet is associated with better cognitive function and lower risk of poor cognition in older, UK adults. This evidence underpins the development of interventions to enhance MedDiet adherence, particularly in individuals at higher CVD risk, aiming to reduce the risk of age-related cognitive decline in non-Mediterranean populations

Association of High-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Versus Apolipoprotein A-I With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: The European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk Prospective Population Study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, and the Women's Health Study.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk stratification over and above high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is unclear. We studied the associations between plasma levels of HDL-C and apoA-I, either alone or combined, with risk of CHD events and cardiovascular risk factors among apparently healthy men and women. METHODS AND RESULTS: HDL-C and apoA-I levels were measured among 17 661 participants of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk prospective population study. Hazard ratios for CHD events and distributions of risk factors were calculated by quartiles of HDL-C and apoA-I. Results were validated using data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and WHS (Women's Health Study) cohorts, comprising 15 494 and 27 552 individuals, respectively. In EPIC-Norfolk, both HDL-C and apoA-I quartiles were strongly and inversely associated with CHD risk. Within HDL-C quartiles, higher apoA-I levels were not associated with lower CHD risk; in fact, CHD risk was higher within some HDL-C quartiles. ApoA-I levels were associated with higher levels of CHD risk factors: higher body mass index, HbA1c, non-HDL-C, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B, systolic blood pressure, and C-reactive protein, within fixed HDL-C quartiles. In contrast, HDL-C levels were consistently inversely associated with overall CHD risk and CHD risk factors within apoA-I quartiles (P<0.001). These findings were validated in the ARIC and WHS cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that apoA-I levels do not offer predictive information over and above HDL-C. In fact, within some HDL-C quartiles, higher apoA-I levels were associated with higher risk of CHD events, possibly because of the unexpected higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in association with higher apoA-I levels. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000479

Mendelian randomization study of B-type natriuretic peptide and type 2 diabetes: evidence of causal association from population studies

&lt;p&gt;Background: Genetic and epidemiological evidence suggests an inverse association between B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in blood and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the prospective association of BNP with T2D is uncertain, and it is unclear whether the association is confounded.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: We analysed the association between levels of the N-terminal fragment of pro-BNP (NT-pro-BNP) in blood and risk of incident T2D in a prospective case-cohort study and genotyped the variant rs198389 within the BNP locus in three T2D case-control studies. We combined our results with existing data in a meta-analysis of 11 case-control studies. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we compared the observed association between rs198389 and T2D to that expected from the NT-pro-BNP level to T2D association and the NT-pro-BNP difference per C allele of rs198389. In participants of our case-cohort study who were free of T2D and cardiovascular disease at baseline, we observed a 21% (95% CI 3%-36%) decreased risk of incident T2D per one standard deviation (SD) higher log-transformed NT-pro-BNP levels in analysis adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, family history of T2D, history of hypertension, and levels of triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The association between rs198389 and T2D observed in case-control studies (odds ratio = 0.94 per C allele, 95% CI 0.91-0.97) was similar to that expected (0.96, 0.93-0.98) based on the pooled estimate for the log-NT-pro-BNP level to T2D association derived from a meta-analysis of our study and published data (hazard ratio = 0.82 per SD, 0.74-0.90) and the difference in NT-pro-BNP levels (0.22 SD, 0.15-0.29) per C allele of rs198389. No significant associations were observed between the rs198389 genotype and potential confounders.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Our results provide evidence for a potential causal role of the BNP system in the aetiology of T2D. Further studies are needed to investigate the mechanisms underlying this association and possibilities for preventive interventions.&lt;/p&gt

Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people.

AIMS: The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people. METHODS AND RESULTS: Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com. CONCLUSION: The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication