The compensatory reserve index predicts recurrent shock in patients with severe dengue

BACKGROUND: Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is one of the major clinical phenotypes of severe dengue. It is defined by significant plasma leak, leading to intravascular volume depletion and eventually cardiovascular collapse. The compensatory reserve Index (CRI) is a new physiological parameter, derived from feature analysis of the pulse arterial waveform that tracks real-time changes in central volume. We investigated the utility of CRI to predict recurrent shock in severe dengue patients admitted to the ICU. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational study in the pediatric and adult intensive care units at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Patients were monitored with hourly clinical parameters and vital signs, in addition to continuous recording of the arterial waveform using pulse oximetry. The waveform data was wirelessly transmitted to a laptop where it was synchronized with the patient's clinical data. RESULTS: One hundred three patients with suspected severe dengue were recruited to this study. Sixty-three patients had the minimum required dataset for analysis. Median age was 11 years (IQR 8-14 years). CRI had a negative correlation with heart rate and moderate negative association with blood pressure. CRI was found to predict recurrent shock within 12 h of being measured (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.54-3.26), P < 0.001). The median duration from CRI measurement to the first recurrent shock was 5.4 h (IQR 2.9-6.8). A CRI cutoff of 0.4 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for predicting recurrent shock (0.66 [95% CI 0.47-0.85] and 0.86 [95% CI 0.80-0.92] respectively). CONCLUSION: CRI is a useful non-invasive method for monitoring intravascular volume status in patients with severe dengue

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Funding WHO

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories

Methods to discriminate primary from secondary dengue during acute symptomatic infection

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus infection results in a broad spectrum of clinical outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic infection through to severe dengue. Although prior infection with another viral serotype, i.e. secondary dengue, is known to be an important factor influencing disease severity, current methods to determine primary versus secondary immune status during the acute illness do not consider the rapidly evolving immune response, and their accuracy has rarely been evaluated against an independent gold standard. METHODS: Two hundred and ninety-three confirmed dengue patients were classified as experiencing primary, secondary or indeterminate infections using plaque reduction neutralisation tests performed 6 months after resolution of the acute illness. We developed and validated regression models to differentiate primary from secondary dengue on multiple acute illness days, using Panbio Indirect IgG and in-house capture IgG and IgM ELISA measurements performed on over 1000 serial samples obtained during acute illness. RESULTS: Cut-offs derived for the various parameters demonstrated progressive change (positively or negatively) by day of illness. Using these time varying cut-offs it was possible to determine whether an infection was primary or secondary on single specimens, with acceptable performance. The model using Panbio Indirect IgG responses and including an interaction with illness day showed the best performance throughout, although with some decline in performance later in infection. Models based on in-house capture IgG levels, and the IgM/IgG ratio, also performed well, though conversely performance improved later in infection. CONCLUSIONS: For all assays, the best fitting models estimated a different cut-off value for different days of illness, confirming how rapidly the immune response changes during acute dengue. The optimal choice of assay will vary depending on circumstance. Although the Panbio Indirect IgG model performs best early on, the IgM/IgG capture ratio may be preferred later in the illness course

The compensatory reserve index predicts recurrent shock in patients with severe dengue

Background Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is one of the major clinical phenotypes of severe dengue. It is defined by significant plasma leak, leading to intravascular volume depletion and eventually cardiovascular collapse. The compensatory reserve Index (CRI) is a new physiological parameter, derived from feature analysis of the pulse arterial waveform that tracks real-time changes in central volume. We investigated the utility of CRI to predict recurrent shock in severe dengue patients admitted to the ICU. Methods We performed a prospective observational study in the pediatric and adult intensive care units at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Patients were monitored with hourly clinical parameters and vital signs, in addition to continuous recording of the arterial waveform using pulse oximetry. The waveform data was wirelessly transmitted to a laptop where it was synchronized with the patient’s clinical data. Results One hundred three patients with suspected severe dengue were recruited to this study. Sixty-three patients had the minimum required dataset for analysis. Median age was 11 years (IQR 8–14 years). CRI had a negative correlation with heart rate and moderate negative association with blood pressure. CRI was found to predict recurrent shock within 12 h of being measured (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.54–3.26), P < 0.001). The median duration from CRI measurement to the first recurrent shock was 5.4 h (IQR 2.9–6.8). A CRI cutoff of 0.4 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for predicting recurrent shock (0.66 [95% CI 0.47–0.85] and 0.86 [95% CI 0.80–0.92] respectively). Conclusion CRI is a useful non-invasive method for monitoring intravascular volume status in patients with severe dengue

The energy expenditure at critically ill patients

The aim of this study was to determine energy expenditure and to find relations between resting energy expenditure (REE) and selected parameters in 14 polytraumatic patients in the ICU of University Hospital in Hradec Kralove, which were easily measurable and usable for REE prediction. In this study 7 men (age 36 ± 18 years) and 7 women (age 58 ± 28 years) with polytrauma were examined. The assessment of REE was measured via indirect calorimetry (IC) method. The examination also included bioimpedance analysis (BIA). BIA was useful especially for obtaining values of overhydration (OH), lean tissue mass (LTM) and metabolically active body cell mass (BCM). Average REE-IC (measured by IC) was 2116 ± 516 kcal·day-1 in men and 1450 ± 407 kcal·day-1 in women (P = 0.018). Statistically significant difference between men's and women's population was also found in these relations: calculation of basal energy expenditure according to Harris-Bennedict equation without (P = 0.001) and with deduction of OH from body weight (P = 0.001), at "breathing energy expenditure" (REE related to respiratory rate) (P = 0.018) and at (REE related to heart rate) "heart rate energy expenditure" (P = 0.038). REE-IC related to kilogram of BCM with and without deduction of overhydration was shown as statistically significant..

Intravenous magnesium sulfate for the management of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease with autonomic nervous system dysregulation in Vietnamese children: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Over the last 15 years, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has emerged as a major public health burden across the Asia-Pacific region. A small proportion of HFMD patients, typically those infected with enterovirus 71 (EV71), develop brainstem encephalitis with autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysregulation and may progress rapidly to cardiopulmonary failure and death. Although milrinone has been reported to control hypertension and support myocardial function in two small studies, in practice, a number of children still deteriorate despite this treatment. Magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) is a cheap, safe, and readily available medication that is effective in managing tetanus-associated ANS dysregulation and has shown promise when used empirically in EV71-confirmed severe HFMD cases.We describe the protocol for a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of intravenous MgSO4 in Vietnamese children diagnosed clinically with HFMD plus ANS dysregulation with systemic hypertension. A loading dose of MgSO4 or identical placebo is given over 20 min followed by a maintenance infusion for 72 h according to response, aiming for Mg levels two to three times the normal level in the treatment arm. The primary endpoint is a composite of disease progression within 72 h defined as follows: development of pre-specified blood pressure criteria necessitating the addition of milrinone, the need for ventilation, shock, or death. Secondary endpoints comprise these parameters singly, plus other clinical endpoints including the following: requirement for other inotropic agents; duration of hospitalization; presence of neurological sequelae at discharge in survivors; and neurodevelopmental status assessed 6 months after discharge. The number and severity of adverse events observed in the two treatment arms will also be compared. Based on preliminary data from a case series, and allowing for some losses, 190 patients (95 in each arm) will allow detection of a 50 % reduction in disease progression with 90 % power at a two-sided 5 % significance level.Given the large numbers of HFMD cases currently being seen in hospitals in Asia, if MgSO4 is shown to be effective in controlling ANS dysregulation and preventing severe HFMD complications, this finding would be important to pediatric care throughout the region.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01940250 (Registered 22 August 2013)

Lovastatin for the treatment of adult patients with dengue: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Background Dengue endangers billions of people in the tropical world, yet no therapeutic is currently available. In part, the severe manifestations of dengue reflect inflammatory processes affecting the vascular endothelium. In addition to lipid lowering, statins have pleiotropic effects that improve endothelial function, and epidemiological studies suggest that outcomes from a range of acute inflammatory syndromes are improved in patients already on statin therapy. Methods Following satisfactory review of a short pilot phase (40 mg lovastatin vs placebo in 30 cases), we performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 5 days of 80 mg lovastatin vs placebo in 300 Vietnamese adults with a positive dengue NS1 rapid test presenting within 72 hours of fever onset. The primary outcome was safety. Secondary outcomes included comparisons of disease progression rates, fever clearance times, and measures of plasma viremia and quality of life between the treatment arms. Results Adverse events occurred with similar frequency in both groups (97/151 [64%] placebo vs 82/149 [55%] lovastatin; P= .13), and were in keeping with the characteristic clinical and laboratory features of acute dengue. We also observed no difference in serious adverse events or any of the secondary outcome measures. Conclusions We found lovastatin to be safe and well tolerated in adults with dengue. However, although the study was not powered to address efficacy, we found no evidence of a beneficial effect on any of the clinical manifestations or on dengue viremia. Continuing established statin therapy in patients who develop dengue is safe.</p