Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective treatments for infected patients, and mechanisms to continue routine health care

Can disordered mobile phone use be considered a behavioral addiction? An update on current evidence and a comprehensive model for future research

Despite the many positive outcomes, excessive mobile phone use is now often associated with potentially harmful and/or disturbing behaviors (e.g., symptoms of deregulated use, negative impact on various aspects of daily life such as relationship problems, and work intrusion). Problematic mobile phone use (PMPU) has generally been considered as a behavioral addiction that shares many features with more established drug addictions. In light of the most recent data, the current paper reviews the validity of the behavioral addiction model when applied to PMPU. On the whole, it is argued that the evidence supporting PMPU as an addictive behavior is scarce. In particular, it lacks studies that definitively show behavioral and neurobiological similarities between mobile phone addiction and other types of legitimate addictive behaviors. Given this context, an integrative pathway model is proposed that aims to provide a theoretical framework to guide future research in the field of PMPU. This model highlights that PMPU is a heterogeneous and multi-faceted condition

Micro-fabrication of Carbon Structures by Pattern Miniaturization in Resorcinol-Formaldehyde Gel

A simple and novel method to fabricate and miniaturize surface and sub-surface micro-structures and micro-patterns in glassy carbon is proposed and demonstrated. An aqueous resorcinol-formaldehyde (RF) sol is employed for micro-molding of the master-pattern to be replicated, followed by controlled drying and pyrolysis of the gel to reproduce an isotropically shrunk replica in carbon. The miniaturized version of the master-pattern thus replicated in carbon is about one order of magnitude smaller than original master by repeating three times the above cycle of molding and drying. The micro-fabrication method proposed will greatly enhance the toolbox for a facile fabrication of a variety of Carbon-MEMS and C-microfluidic devices.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m² [underweight], 18·5 kg/m² to <20 kg/m², 20 kg/m² to <25 kg/m², 25 kg/m² to <30 kg/m², 30 kg/m² to <35 kg/m², 35 kg/m² to <40 kg/m², =40 kg/m² [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m² (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m² (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m² (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m² (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m² in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m² (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m² (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m² (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world’s men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI =35 kg/m²). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world’s poorest regions, especially in south Asia

The Role of Health Behaviours Across the Life Course in the Socioeconomic Patterning of All-Cause Mortality: The West of Scotland Twenty-07 Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Socioeconomic differentials in mortality are increasing in many industrialised countries. Purpose: This study aims to examine the role of behaviours (smoking, alcohol, exercise, and diet) in explaining socioeconomic differentials in mortality and whether this varies over the life course, between cohorts and by gender. Methods: Analysis of two representative population cohorts of men and women, born in the 1950s and 1930s, were performed. Health behaviours were assessed on five occasions over 20 years. Results: Health behaviours explained a substantial part of the socioeconomic differentials in mortality. Cumulative behaviours and those that were more strongly associated with socioeconomic status had the greatest impact. For example, in the 1950s cohort, the age-sex adjusted hazard ratio comparing respondents with manual versus non-manual occupational status was 1.80 (1.25, 2.58); adjustment for cumulative smoking over 20 years attenuated the association by 49 %, diet by 43 %, drinking by 13 % and inactivity by only 1%. Conclusions: Health behaviours have an important role in explaining socioeconomic differentials in mortality. © 2013 The Author(s)

Large-Scale Gene Disruption in Magnaporthe oryzae Identifies MC69, a Secreted Protein Required for Infection by Monocot and Dicot Fungal Pathogens

To search for virulence effector genes of the rice blast fungus, Magnaporthe oryzae, we carried out a large-scale targeted disruption of genes for 78 putative secreted proteins that are expressed during the early stages of infection of M. oryzae. Disruption of the majority of genes did not affect growth, conidiation, or pathogenicity of M. oryzae. One exception was the gene MC69. The mc69 mutant showed a severe reduction in blast symptoms on rice and barley, indicating the importance of MC69 for pathogenicity of M. oryzae. The mc69 mutant did not exhibit changes in saprophytic growth and conidiation. Microscopic analysis of infection behavior in the mc69 mutant revealed that MC69 is dispensable for appressorium formation. However, mc69 mutant failed to develop invasive hyphae after appressorium formation in rice leaf sheath, indicating a critical role of MC69 in interaction with host plants. MC69 encodes a hypothetical 54 amino acids protein with a signal peptide. Live-cell imaging suggested that fluorescently labeled MC69 was not translocated into rice cytoplasm. Site-directed mutagenesis of two conserved cysteine residues (Cys36 and Cys46) in the mature MC69 impaired function of MC69 without affecting its secretion, suggesting the importance of the disulfide bond in MC69 pathogenicity function. Furthermore, deletion of the MC69 orthologous gene reduced pathogenicity of the cucumber anthracnose fungus Colletotrichum orbiculare on both cucumber and Nicotiana benthamiana leaves. We conclude that MC69 is a secreted pathogenicity protein commonly required for infection of two different plant pathogenic fungi, M. oryzae and C. orbiculare pathogenic on monocot and dicot plants, respectively