Do we listen to what we are told? An empirical study on human behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic: neural networks vs. regression analysis

In this work, we contribute the first visual open-source empirical study on human behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate how compliant a general population is to mask-wearing-related public-health policy. Object-detection-based convolutional neural networks, regression analysis and multilayer perceptrons are combined to analyse visual data of the Viennese public during 2020. We find that mask-wearing-related government regulations and public-transport announcements encouraged correct mask-wearing-behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, changes in announcement and regulation contents led to heterogeneous effects on people's behaviour. Comparing the predictive power of regression analysis and neural networks, we demonstrate that the latter produces more accurate predictions of population reactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our use of regression modelling also allows us to unearth possible causal pathways underlying societal behaviour. Since our findings highlight the importance of appropriate communication contents, our results will facilitate more effective non-pharmaceutical interventions to be developed in future. Adding to the literature, we demonstrate that regression modelling and neural networks are not mutually exclusive but instead complement each other

Towards interpreting recurrent neural networks through probabilistic abstraction

National Research Foundation (NRF) Singapore under its AI Singapore Programm

Identification of a Functional Genetic Variant at 16q12.1 for Breast Cancer Risk: Results from the Asia Breast Cancer Consortium

Genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of breast cancer. We carried out a multi-stage genome-wide association (GWA) study in over 28,000 cases and controls recruited from 12 studies conducted in Asian and European American women to identify genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer. After analyzing 684,457 SNPs in 2,073 cases and 2,084 controls in Chinese women, we evaluated 53 SNPs for fast-track replication in an independent set of 4,425 cases and 1,915 controls of Chinese origin. Four replicated SNPs were further investigated in an independent set of 6,173 cases and 6,340 controls from seven other studies conducted in Asian women. SNP rs4784227 was consistently associated with breast cancer risk across all studies with adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.25 (1.20−1.31) per allele (P = 3.2×10−25) in the pooled analysis of samples from all Asian samples. This SNP was also associated with breast cancer risk among European Americans (per allele OR  = 1.19, 95% CI  = 1.09−1.31, P = 1.3×10−4, 2,797 cases and 2,662 controls). SNP rs4784227 is located at 16q12.1, a region identified previously for breast cancer risk among Europeans. The association of this SNP with breast cancer risk remained highly statistically significant in Asians after adjusting for previously-reported SNPs in this region. In vitro experiments using both luciferase reporter and electrophoretic mobility shift assays demonstrated functional significance of this SNP. These results provide strong evidence implicating rs4784227 as a functional causal variant for breast cancer in the locus 16q12.1 and demonstrate the utility of conducting genetic association studies in populations with different genetic architectures

Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, "select and shrink for summary statistics" (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28-1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08-1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21-1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29-1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35-1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs

Genome-Wide Association Study in East Asians Identifies Novel Susceptibility Loci for Breast Cancer

Genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of both sporadic and familial breast cancer. We aimed to discover novel genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer. We conducted a four-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 19,091 cases and 20,606 controls of East-Asian descent including Chinese, Korean, and Japanese women. After analyzing 690,947 SNPs in 2,918 cases and 2,324 controls, we evaluated 5,365 SNPs for replication in 3,972 cases and 3,852 controls. Ninety-four SNPs were further evaluated in 5,203 cases and 5,138 controls, and finally the top 22 SNPs were investigated in up to 17,423 additional subjects (7,489 cases and 9,934 controls). SNP rs9485372, near the TGF-β activated kinase (TAB2) gene in chromosome 6q25.1, showed a consistent association with breast cancer risk across all four stages, with a P-value of 3.8×10−12 in the combined analysis of all samples. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.89 (0.85–0.94) and 0.80 (0.75–0.86) for the A/G and A/A genotypes, respectively, compared with the genotype G/G. SNP rs9383951 (P = 1.9×10−6 from the combined analysis of all samples), located in intron 5 of the ESR1 gene, and SNP rs7107217 (P = 4.6×10−7), located at 11q24.3, also showed a consistent association in each of the four stages. This study provides strong evidence for a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus represented by rs9485372, near the TAB2 gene (6q25.1), and identifies two possible susceptibility loci located in the ESR1 gene and 11q24.3, respectively

Genetic Data from Nearly 63,000 Women of European Descent Predicts DNA Methylation Biomarkers and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Risk

DNA methylation is instrumental for gene regulation. Global changes in the epigenetic landscape have been recognized as a hallmark of cancer. However, the role of DNA methylation in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) remains unclear. In this study, high-density genetic and DNA methylation data in white blood cells from the Framingham Heart Study (N = 1,595) were used to build genetic models to predict DNA methylation levels. These prediction models were then applied to the summary statistics of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ovarian cancer including 22,406 EOC cases and 40,941 controls to investigate genetically predicted DNA methylation levels in association with EOC risk. Among 62,938 CpG sites investigated, genetically predicted methylation levels at 89 CpG were significantly associated with EOC risk at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P <7.94 x 10(-7). Of them, 87 were located at GWAS-identified EOC susceptibility regions and two resided in a genomic region not previously reported to be associated with EOC risk. Integrative analyses of genetic, methylation, and gene expression data identified consistent directions of associations across 12 CpG, five genes, and EOC risk, suggesting that methylation at these 12 CpG may influence EOC risk by regulating expression of these five genes, namely MAPT, HOXB3, ABHD8, ARHGAP27, and SKAP1. We identified novel DNA methylation markers associated with EOC risk and propose that methylation at multiple CpG may affect EOC risk via regulation of gene expression. Significance: Identification of novel DNA methylation markers associated with EOC risk suggests that methylation at multiple CpG may affect EOC risk through regulation of gene expression.Peer reviewe