Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as\u27that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

ALMA 1.3 Millimeter Map of the HD 95086 System

Planets and minor bodies such as asteroids, Kuiper-belt objects and comets are integral components of a planetary system. Interactions among them leave clues about the formation process of a planetary system. The signature of such interactions is most prominent through observations of its debris disk at millimeter wavelengths where emission is dominated by the population of large grains that stay close to their parent bodies. Here we present ALMA 1.3 mm observations of HD 95086, a young early-type star that hosts a directly imaged giant planet b and a massive debris disk with both asteroid- and Kuiper-belt analogs. The location of the Kuiper-belt analog is resolved for the first time. The system can be depicted as a broad ($\Delta R/R \sim$0.84), inclined (30\arcdeg$\pm$3\arcdeg) ring with millimeter emission peaked at 200$\pm$6 au from the star. The 1.3 mm disk emission is consistent with a broad disk with sharp boundaries from 106$\pm$6 to 320$\pm$20 au with a surface density distribution described by a power law with an index of --0.5$\pm$0.2. Our deep ALMA map also reveals a bright source located near the edge of the ring, whose brightness at 1.3 mm and potential spectral energy distribution are consistent with it being a luminous star-forming galaxy at high redshift. We set constraints on the orbital properties of planet b assuming co-planarity with the observed disk.Comment: accepted for publication in A

Do health behaviours change after colonoscopy? A prospective cohort study on diet, alcohol, physical activity and smoking among patients and their partners

Objectives: To describe diet, alcohol, physical activity and tobacco use prospectively, that is, before and 10 months after colonoscopy for patients and their partners. Design: Prospective cohort study of health behaviour change in patients and partners. Comparison groups are patients receiving a normal result notification (NRN) versus patients receiving an abnormal result notification (ARN). Patients and partners (controls) are also compared. Setting: 5 Scottish hospitals. Participants: Of 5798 colonoscopy registrations, 2577 (44%) patients met the eligibility criteria of whom 565 (22%) were recruited; 460 partners were also recruited. Measures: International Physical Activity Questionnaire, Scottish Collaborative Group Food Frequency Questionnaire (includes alcohol), smoking status, sociodemographic characteristics, body mass index, medical conditions, colonoscopy result, Multidimensional Health Locus of Control Scale, behaviour-specific self-efficacy scales. Results: 57% of patients were men, with a mean age of 60.8 years (SE 0.5) and 43% were from more affluent areas. 72% (n=387) of patients received an ARN and 28% (n=149) received an NRN. Response rate of the second questionnaire was 68.9%. Overall, 27% of patients consumed < 5 measures of fruit and vegetables/day, 20% exceeded alcohol limits, 50% had low levels of physical activity and 21% were obese. At 10-month follow-up, a 5% reduction in excessive alcohol consumption and an 8% increase in low levels of physical activity were observed among patients; no significant changes occurred in partners. Baseline high alcohol consumption and low physical activity were the strongest predictors of these behaviours at follow-up. Low alcohol self-efficacy and increasing age were associated with poorer health-related behaviours at follow-up for alcohol consumption and physical activity, respectively. Conclusions: Colonoscopy is associated with marginal beneficial changes in some behaviours but not others. Further work is needed to explore how services can optimise increases in beneficial behaviours and mitigate increases in harmful ones

The Grizzly, October 16, 1981

Long Range Improvements Planned • Homecoming Coming Up • Fraternity Hazing Topic of Next Forum • Sadat: The Champion of Peace • USGA Notes • Procedure and Schedule for Spring Term Registration • Frats Resume Reimert Cleanup • Student Advising Program to be Revised Next Year • Transplanted Texan: Evaluation of a Brown-noser • Increased Internationalism Has Positive Effect on Campus • Bad Weather Attendance Rules • Homecoming Queen Candidates • Community and Civilization Course • Ursinus News Briefs: The law of the sea: is it a new threat to peace?; Exploring career options; CPAs to sponsor student manuscript contest • Student Use of Helfferich Clarified • New Medical Ethics Course Offered at Ursinus • Field Hockey Winning Ways Return • Booters Offense Sharp • Bear Loss in Final Quarterhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1064/thumbnail.jp

Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

The Grizzly, February 5, 1982

Wismer Thefts Provoke Action • Lloyd\u27s Tenure Rejection Official • KDK Attains Highest GPA • Rod Luck Visits W\u27s Gymnastics • Comment: New Faculty Program a Contradiction of Goals? • On Energy Conservation • Administration\u27s Views on Pledging • Book Store Improves Under New Management • Bell Rate Hikes to Affect Students • Pattern Changes Planned for Next Semester • The Way to a Man\u27s Heart • Japanese Program Opens This Summer • Aquamen Swamp E-town • Racqueteers Rolling • Women Splash to Victory • Sterling Brown to Take Over Football Team • B-Ball Takes Two • Girls Dump Mighty Macshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1071/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, December 4, 1981

Dealing With Financial Pressure • EcBA Department Interviews for New Positions • Freshman Relates Pre-Collegiate Experiences in Japan • Union Evaluation Prompts Improvement • Campus-wide Planning Meeting Sets Competitive Goals for UC • Residents Fix Up Curtis Hall • Lucas Named To PaCIE • \u27Messiah\u27 Rehearsal Open to Public • Jarvis and Rutherford in Last Coffeehouse • Best Albums of 1981 • Senior Poet Honored Nationally • New Wrestlers Lead the Way • Girls B-Ball Prime for Opener • Baseball Team Has New Skipper • Men\u27s Swimmers Take Third Place • Hoopsters Off to Slow Start • Gymnasts Pleasing • Women\u27s Swim Team Prepares for Tough Schedule • Mike Fagan All-MAChttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1069/thumbnail.jp