From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas

Posterior shoulder tightness; an intersession reliability study of 3 clinical tests.

Background Although posterior shoulder tightness (PST) has been associated with shoulder pathology and altered glenohumeral joint kinematics, uncertainty remains regarding its cause and definition. To understand the efficacy of treatments for PST, it must be possible to identify people with PST for the purposes of research and clinical decision-making. Clinical tests for PST must demonstrate acceptable levels of measurement reliability in order to identify the condition and to evaluate the response to intervention. There is currently a lack of research describing intersession reliability for measures of PST. The aim of this study was to quantify the inter-session reliability for three clinical tests used to identify PST over a 6–10 week interval. Methods A convenience sample of 26 asymptomatic adult participants (52 shoulders) were recruited from a university setting over a five-month duration. Participants attended the human movement laboratory for measurement of glenohumeral joint internal rotation, horizontal adduction and low flexion on two occasions separated by an interval of 6–10 weeks. Intra-class correlation coefficients were calculated from the mean square values derived from the within-subject, single factor (repeated measures) ANOVA. Test-retest measurement stability was evaluated by calculating the standard error of measurement and the minimum detectable change for each measurement. Results All 3 tests demonstrated good intersession intra-rater reliability (0.86–0.88), and the standard error of measurement (95%) were 7.3° for glenohumeral horizontal adduction, 9.4° for internal rotation, and 6.9° for low flexion. The minimum detectable change for glenohumeral horizontal adduction was 10.2°, internal rotation was 13.3°, and low flexion was 9.7°. Conclusion In this population of people without symptoms, the 3 measures of PST all demonstrated acceptable inter-session reliability. The standard error of measurement and minimum detectable change results can be used to determine if a change in measures of PST are due to measurement error or an actual change over time.Peer reviewe