How Changes in Technology and Automation will Affect the Labour Market in Africa

Estimates of how many jobs are vulnerable to being replaced by machine vary but it is clear that developing countries are more susceptible to automation compared to high-income countries. Traditionally, blue-collar routine jobs have been automated but with the emergence of greatly improved computing power, artificial intelligence and robotics, a much larger scope of occupations are at risk. Vulnerability to automation is now based on whether jobs or tasks are codifiable and whether they are routine or not. Highly-trained and skilled jobs can be more at risk than more varied, lesser skilled jobs. This rapid literature review found that whilst there is evidence, information and discussion of the impact of automation on the labour market in industrialised nations, there is much less on the potential impact in developing countries. The World Development Report 2016 Digital Dividends (World Bank 2016) was an excellent source of data and many of the figures presented are from this report. Whether you are a “techno-optimist” or a “techno-pessimist”, the impact of automation on the labour market will require long-term adjustment and policy changes to ensure the future of work is inclusive and sustainable and addresses increasing income inequality (Gelb and Khan December 2016) in an ever more automated and digital economy

Interpreting Tuberculin Skin Tests in a Population With a High Prevalence of HIV, Tuberculosis, and Nonspecific Tuberculin Sensitivity

Understanding the epidemiology and clinical course of tuberculosis is hampered by the absence of a perfect test for latent tuberculosis infection. The tuberculin skin test (TST) is widely used but suffers poor specificity in those receiving the bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine and poor sensitivity in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections. TST responses for a target population in Harare, Zimbabwe (HIV prevalence, 21%), recruited in 2005–2006, were interpreted by using a separate calibration population in Harare, for which interferon-gamma release assays (enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot)) results were also known. Statistical fitting of the responses in the calibration population allowed computation of the probability that an individual in the target population with a given TST and HIV result would have tested ELISpot positive. From this, estimates of the prevalence of tuberculosis infection, and optimal TST cutpoints to minimize misdiagnosis, were computed for different assumptions about ELISpot performance. Different assumptions about the sensitivity and specificity of ELISpot gave a 40%–57% prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the target population (including HIV-infected individuals) and optimal TST cutpoints typically in the 10 mm–20 mm range. However, the optimal cutpoint for HIV-infected individuals was consistently 0 mm. This calibration method may provide a valuable tool for interpreting TST results in other populations

Enumeration of Functional T-Cell Subsets by Fluorescence-Immunospot Defines Signatures of Pathogen Burden in Tuberculosis

IFN-γ and IL-2 cytokine-profiles define three functional T-cell subsets which may correlate with pathogen load in chronic intracellular infections. We therefore investigated the feasibility of the immunospot platform to rapidly enumerate T-cell subsets by single-cell IFN-γ/IL-2 cytokine-profiling and establish whether immunospot-based T-cell signatures distinguish different clinical stages of human tuberculosis infection.We used fluorophore-labelled anti-IFN-γ and anti-IL-2 antibodies with digital overlay of spatially-mapped colour-filtered images to enumerate dual and single cytokine-secreting M. tuberculosis antigen-specific T-cells in tuberculosis patients and in latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). We validated results against established measures of cytokine-secreting T-cells.Fluorescence-immunospot correlated closely with single-cytokine enzyme-linked-immunospot for IFN-γ-secreting T-cells and IL-2-secreting T-cells and flow-cytometry-based detection of dual IFN-γ/IL-2-secreting T-cells. The untreated tuberculosis signature was dominated by IFN-γ-only-secreting T-cells which shifted consistently in longitudinally-followed patients during treatment to a signature dominated by dual IFN-γ/IL-2-secreting T-cells in treated patients. The LTBI signature differed from active tuberculosis, with higher proportions of IL-2-only and IFN-γ/IL-2-secreting T-cells and lower proportions of IFN-γ-only-secreting T-cells.Fluorescence-immunospot is a quantitative, accurate measure of functional T-cell subsets; identification of cytokine-signatures of pathogen burden, distinct clinical stages of M. tuberculosis infection and long-term immune containment suggests application for treatment monitoring and vaccine evaluation

A molecular assay for sensitive detection of pathogen-specific T-cells.

Here we describe the development and validation of a highly sensitive assay of antigen-specific IFN-γ production using real time quantitative PCR (qPCR) for two reporters--monokine-induced by IFN-γ (MIG) and the IFN-γ inducible protein-10 (IP10). We developed and validated the assay and applied it to the detection of CMV, HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) specific responses, in a cohort of HIV co-infected patients. We compared the sensitivity of this assay to that of the ex vivo RD1 (ESAT-6 and CFP-10)-specific IFN-γ Elispot assay. We observed a clear quantitative correlation between the two assays (P<0.001). Our assay proved to be a sensitive assay for the detection of MTB-specific T cells, could be performed on whole blood samples of fingerprick (50 uL) volumes, and was not affected by HIV-mediated immunosuppression. This assay platform is potentially of utility in diagnosis of infection in this and other clinical settings

Novel M tuberculosis Antigen-Specific T-Cells Are Early Markers of Infection and Disease Progression

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Region-of-Difference-1 gene products present opportunities for specific diagnosis of M. tuberculosis infection, yet immune responses to only two gene-products, Early Secretory Antigenic Target-6 (ESAT-6) and Culture Filtrate Protein-10 (CFP-10), have been comprehensively investigated.T-cell responses to Rv3873, Rv3878 and Rv3879c were quantified by IFN-γ-enzyme-linked-immunospot (ELISpot) in 846 children with recent household tuberculosis exposure and correlated with kinetics of tuberculin skin test (TST) and ESAT-6/CFP-10-ELISpot conversion over six months and clinical outcome over two years.Responses to Rv3873, Rv3878, and Rv3879c were present in 20-25% of contacts at enrolment. Rv3873 and Rv3879c responses were associated with and preceded TST conversion (P=0.02 and P=0.04 respectively), identifying these antigens as early targets of cell-mediated immunity following M. tuberculosis exposure. Responses to Rv3873 were additionally associated with subsequent ESAT-6/CFP-10-ELISpot conversion (P=0.04). Responses to Rv3873 and Rv3878 predicted progression to active disease (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI] 3.06 [1.05,8.95; P=0.04], and 3.32 [1.14,9.71; P=0.03], respectively). Presence of a BCG-vaccination scar was associated with a 67% (P=0.03) relative risk reduction for progression to active tuberculosis.These RD1-derived antigens are early targets of cellular immunity following tuberculosis exposure and T-cells specific for these antigens predict progression to active tuberculosis suggesting diagnostic and prognostic utility

Clinical outcomes and response to treatment of patients receiving topical treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum: a prospective cohort study

Background: pyoderma gangrenosum (PG) is an uncommon dermatosis with a limited evidence base for treatment. Objective: to estimate the effectiveness of topical therapies in the treatment of PG. Methods: prospective cohort study of UK secondary care patients with a clinical diagnosis of PG suitable for topical treatment (recruited July 2009 to June 2012). Participants received topical therapy following normal clinical practice (mainly Class I-III topical corticosteroids, tacrolimus 0.03% or 0.1%). Primary outcome: speed of healing at 6 weeks. Secondary outcomes: proportion healed by 6 months; time to healing; global assessment; inflammation; pain; quality-of-life; treatment failure and recurrence. Results: Sixty-six patients (22 to 85 years) were enrolled. Clobetasol propionate 0.05% was the most commonly prescribed therapy. Overall, 28/66 (43.8%) of ulcers healed by 6 months. Median time-to-healing was 145 days (95% CI: 96 days, ∞). Initial ulcer size was a significant predictor of time-to-healing (hazard ratio 0.94 (0.88;80 1.00); p = 0.043). Four patients (15%) had a recurrence. Limitations: No randomised comparator Conclusion: Topical therapy is potentially an effective first-line treatment for PG that avoids possible side effects associated with systemic therapy. It remains unclear whether more severe disease will respond adequately to topical therapy alone