The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.</p

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.</p

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.</p

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.</p

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.</p

The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust

Uncertainty around statistics is inevitable. However, communicators of uncertain statistics, particularly in high-stakes and potentially political circumstances, may be concerned that presenting uncertainties could undermine the perceived trustworthiness of the information or its source. In a large survey experiment (Study 1; N = 10 519), we report that communicating uncertainty around present COVID-19 statistics in the form of a numeric range (versus no uncertainty) may lead to slightly lower perceived trustworthiness of the number presented but has no impact on perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information. We also show that this minimal impact of numeric uncertainty on trustworthiness is also present when communicating future, projected COVID-19 statistics (Study 2; N = 2,309). Conversely, we find statements about the mere existence of uncertainty, without quantification, can reduce both perceived trustworthiness of the numbers and of their source. Our findings add to others suggesting that communicators can be transparent about statistical uncertainty without undermining their credibility as a source but should endeavour to provide a quantification, such as a numeric range, where possible.</p

Influence of dietary lysine on growth performance of high-lean growth gilts fed from 160 to 300 lb

One-hundred eight high-lean growth gilts (159.6 lb) were used to determine the dietary lysine requirement to optimize growth performance from 160 to 300 lb. The experiment was designed as a randomized complete block, with initial weight serving as the blocking factor. Six dietary treatments were used, ranging from .44 to .94% digestible lysine (.59 to 1.16% total lysine). Pigs were housed in pens of three, with six replicate pens/treatment. Pig weights and feed disappearance were collected weekly to calculate average daily gain (ADG), average daily feed intake (ADFI), and feed efficiency (F/G). Average daily gain increased from 160 to 230 lb, from 230 to 300 lb, and from 160 to 300 lb. Average daily feed intake was not influenced by dietary treatment. The gilts consumed 6.47, 6.65, and 6.56 lb/day from 160 to 230, from 230 to 300, and from 160 to 300 lb, respectively. Thus, F/G improved linearly from 160 to 230 lb and quadratically from 230 to 300 and from 160 to 300 lb as a function of increased ADG. Lysine intake was increased linearly for all three weight periods as digestible lysine increased in the diet. The data from this experiment suggest that high-lean growth gilts requires at least 26 g/d of lysine from 160 to 230 and from 230 to 300 lb. Thus, matching nutrition with genetics is essential to optimize both rate and efficiency of gain

L-VRAP-a lunar volatile resources analysis package for lunar exploration

The Lunar Volatile Resources Analysis Package (L-VRAP) has been conceived to deliver some of the objectives of the proposed Lunar Lander mission currently being studied by the European Space Agency. The purpose of the mission is to demonstrate and develop capability; the impetus is very much driven by a desire to lay the foundations for future human exploration of the Moon. Thus, LVRAP has design goals that consider lunar volatiles from the perspective of both their innate scientific interest and also their potential for in situ utilisation as a resource. The device is a dual mass spectrometer system and is capable of meeting the requirements of the mission with respect to detection, quantification and characterisation of volatiles. Through the use of appropriate sampling techniques, volatiles from either the regolith or atmosphere (exosphere) can be analysed. Furthermore, since L-VRAP has the capacity to determine isotopic compositions, it should be possible for the instrument to determine the sources of the volatiles that are found on the Moon (be they lunar per se, extra-lunar, or contaminants imparted by the mission itself

Large-scale pharmacogenomic study of sulfonylureas and the QT, JT and QRS intervals: CHARGE Pharmacogenomics Working Group

Sulfonylureas, a commonly used class of medication used to treat type 2 diabetes, have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Their effects on QT interval duration and related electrocardiographic phenotypes are potential mechanisms for this adverse effect. In 11 ethnically diverse cohorts that included 71 857 European, African-American and Hispanic/Latino ancestry individuals with repeated measures of medication use and electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements, we conducted a pharmacogenomic genome-wide association study of sulfonylurea use and three ECG phenotypes: QT, JT and QRS intervals. In ancestry-specific meta-analyses, eight novel pharmacogenomic loci met the threshold for genome-wide significance (P&lt;5 × 10−8), and a pharmacokinetic variant in CYP2C9 (rs1057910) that has been associated with sulfonylurea-related treatment effects and other adverse drug reactions in previous studies was replicated. Additional research is needed to replicate the novel findings and to understand their biological basis

The first decade of web-based sports injury surveillance: Descriptive epidemiology of injuries in US high school boys' soccer (2005-2006 through 2013-2014) and national collegiate athletic association men's soccer (2004-2005 through 2013-2014)

Context: The advent of Web-based sports injury surveillance via programs such as the High School Reporting Information Online system and the National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance Program has aided the acquisition of boys' and men's soccer injury data. Objective: To describe the epidemiology of injuries sustained in high school boys' soccer in the 2005-2006 through 2013-2014 academic years and collegiate men's soccer in the 2004-2005 through 2013-2014 academic years using Web-based sports injury surveillance. Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Setting: Online injury surveillance from soccer teams of high school boys (annual average ¼ 100) and collegiate men (annual average ¼ 41). Patients or Other Participants: Boys' or men's soccer players who participated in practices and competitions during the 2005-2006 through 2013-2014 academic years in high school and the 2004-2005 through 2013-2014 academic years in college, respectively. Main Outcome Measure(s): Athletic trainers collected time-loss (24 hours) injury and exposure data. Injury rates per 1000 athlete-exposures (AEs), injury rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and injury proportions by body site and diagnosis were calculated. Results: High School Reporting Information Online documented 2912 time-loss injuries during 1 592 238 AEs; the National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance Program documented 4765 time-loss injuries during 686 918 AEs. The injury rate was higher in college than in high school (6.94 versus 1.83/1000 AEs; IRR ¼ 3.79; 95% CI ¼ 3.62, 3.97). Injury rates increased with smaller school size for high schools and were higher in Division I than in Divisions II and III. The injury rate was higher during competitions than during practices in both high school (IRR ¼ 3.55; 95% CI ¼ 3.30, 3.83) and college (IRR ¼ 3.45; 95% CI ¼ 3.26, 3.65). Most injuries were to the lower extremity. However, concussion was a common injury, particularly in collegiate goalkeepers and at all positions for high school players. Concussions accounted for more than one-fifth of injuries in high school games. Conclusions: Injury-prevention interventions should be tailored to reflect variations in the incidence and type of injury by level of competition, event type, and position