Public Debt Episodes in Irish Economic History 1950-2015

In this paper I study the public debt dynamics of three episodes (the crises of the 1950s, the 1980s and 2010-15) in Ireland’s modern economic history. By using traditional debt dynamic decomposition formulae, I measure the components which contributed most to public debt ratio reduction following previous high debt episodes. I also employ the case of Sweden for comparative purposes, in how it emerged from the increase in public debt in the aftermath of its banking crisis 1991-1993. The key findings which emerge are 1) the reduction of the public ratio following the 1980s episode was predominantly driven by cumulative primary surpluses, though a favourable growth and interest rate differential emerged as the key determinant in the late 1990s. Additionally, public debt in the 1980s was considerably more difficult to service in terms of tax revenues and maturity structures than the current event. 2) Public debt continued to increase following the crisis of the 1950s due to higher interest rates and lower inflation, despite a recovery in growth and fiscal contraction. 3) In line with other research isolating the uniqueness of open economy debt reductions, I find that though Sweden (like Ireland) reduced public debt in an environment of strong international growth, it did so in a macroeconomic environment of higher interest rates and falling inflation, entirely through budget surplus accumulation

The Feasibility of Using Vanadium and Nickel to Track Oil Spills in Coastal Environments

Crude oil has been increasing in world demand over the past century. It is known that oil is resistant to weathering processes and if spilled, can cause serious environmental damage to an area, on land or sea. A complementary approach to current methods of tracking oil and identifying spill-impacted sediments may be to measure trace metals associated with crude oil. Trace metals, such a vanadium (V) and nickel (Ni) are known to be elevated in concentration in some oil sources, but little work has been done on this topic. This research explored less expensive and time-consuming methods to track or identify an oil spill-impacted area using the trace metals V and Ni that would serve as a complementary method to current GC/MS analyses. Using a ratio of extractable V and Ni versus conservative background elements found in abundance in sediments where this ratio may change as a result of oil spill contamination, it looks possible to determine if there is an elevated concentration of V and Ni in spill impacted areas compared to control areas. Two control sites, Wax Lake in the Atchafalaya Basin, and an area in the Gulf of Mexico near the Deepwater Horizon impact site, but sampled pre-spill, were compared to other sites, one known for most samples to have been impacted by the spill and other areas with more isolated contamination. Three different statistical techniques were used to compare possible impacted sites to control sites. The analyses covered ratios of V/Al, V/Fe, Ni/Al, and Ni/Fe to test for contamination, and Zn and Mg ratios to serve as control elements that should not be changed by a spill. Two of the three statistical methods generally supported the visibly oil impacted area had elevated concentrations of V and Ni. This work concludes that it may be possible to use these V and Ni ratios to determine areas of crude oil contamination of sediments in coastal areas

Active damping application to the shuttle RMS

Control Structure Interaction (CSI) is a relatively new technology developed over the last 10 to 15 years for application to large flexible space vehicles. The central issue is recognition that high performance control systems necessary for good spacecraft performance may adversely interact with the dynamics of the spacecraft structures, a problem increasingly aggravated by the large size and reduced stiffness of modern spacecraft structural designs. The CSI analysis and design methods were developed to avoid interactions while maintaining spacecraft performance without exceeding structural capabilities, but they remain largely unvalidated by hardware experiments or demonstrations, particularly in-space flight demonstrations. One recent proposal for a low cost flight validation of CSI technology is to demonstrate active damping augmentation of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (RMS). An analytical effort to define the potential for such an active damping augmentation demonstration to improve the structural dynamic response of the RMS following payload maneuvers is described. It is hoped that this study will lead to an actual inflight CSI test with the RMS using existing shuttle hardware to the maximum extent possible. By using the existing hardware, the flight demonstration results may eventually be of direct benefit to actual Space Shuttle RMS operations, especially during the construction of the Space Station Freedom

MASCOT - MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox

MASCOT software was created to provide the conceptual aircraft designer accurate predictions of air vehicle stability and control characteristics. The code takes as input mass property data in the form of an inertia tensor, aerodynamic loading data, and propulsion (i.e. thrust) loading data. Using fundamental non-linear equations of motion, MASCOT then calculates vehicle trim and static stability data for any desired flight condition. Common predefined flight conditions are included. The predefined flight conditions include six horizontal and six landing rotation conditions with varying options for engine out, crosswind and sideslip, plus three takeoff rotation conditions. Results are displayed through a unique graphical interface developed to provide stability and control information to the conceptual design engineers using a qualitative scale indicating whether the vehicle has acceptable, marginal, or unacceptable static stability characteristics. This software allows the user to prescribe the vehicle s CG location, mass, and inertia tensor so that any loading configuration between empty weight and maximum take-off weight can be analyzed. The required geometric and aerodynamic data as well as mass and inertia properties may be entered directly, passed through data files, or come from external programs such as Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP). The current version of MASCOT has been tested with VSP used to compute the required data, which is then passed directly into the program. In VSP, the vehicle geometry is created and manipulated. The aerodynamic coefficients, stability and control derivatives, are calculated using VorLax, which is now available directly within VSP. MASCOT has been written exclusively using the technical computing language MATLAB . This innovation is able to bridge the gap between low-fidelity conceptual design and higher-fidelity stability and control analysis. This new tool enables the conceptual design engineer to include detailed static stability and trim constraints in the conceptual design loop. The unique graphical interface developed for this tool presents the stability data in a format that is understandable by the conceptual designer, yet also provides the detailed quantitative results if desired

Evaluation of inertial devices for the control of large, flexible, space-based telerobotic arms

Inertial devices, including sensors and actuators, offer the potential of improving the tracking of telerobotic commands for space-based robots by smoothing payload motions and suppressing vibrations. In this paper, inertial actuators (specifically, torque-wheels and reaction-masses) are studied for that potential application. Batch simulation studies are presented which show that torque-wheels can reduce the overshoot in abrupt stop commands by 82 percent for a two-link arm. For man-in-the-loop evaluation, a real-time simulator has been developed which samples a hand-controller, solves the nonlinear equations of motion, and graphically displays the resulting motion on a computer workstation. Currently, two manipulator models, a two-link, rigid arm and a single-link, flexible arm, have been studied. Results are presented which show that, for a single-link arm, a reaction-mass/torque-wheel combination at the payload end can yield a settling time of 3 s for disturbances in the first flexible mode as opposed to 10 s using only a hub motor. A hardware apparatus, which consists of a single-link, highly flexible arm with a hub motor and a torque-wheel, has been assembled to evaluate the concept and is described herein

The Role of Uncertainty in Aerospace Vehicle Analysis and Design

Effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) begins at the earliest phase in the design phase for which there are adequate models and continues tightly integrated to the analysis and design cycles as the refinement of the models and the fidelity of the tools increase. It is essential that uncertainty quantification strategies provide objective information to support the processes of identifying, analyzing and accommodating for the effects of uncertainty. Assessments of uncertainty should never render the results more difficult for engineers and decision makers to comprehend, but instead provide them with critical information to assist with resource utilization decisions and risk mitigation strategies. Success would be measured by the tools to enable engineers and decision makers to effectively balance critical project resources against system requirements while accounting for the impact of uncertainty

MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox Trim and Static Stability Module

MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox (MASCOT) utilizes geometric, aerodynamic, and inertial inputs to calculate air vehicle stability in a variety of critical flight conditions. The code is based on fundamental, non-linear equations of motion and is able to translate results into a qualitative, graphical scale useful to the non-expert. MASCOT was created to provide the conceptual aircraft designer accurate predictions of air vehicle stability and control characteristics. The code takes as input mass property data in the form of an inertia tensor, aerodynamic loading data, and propulsion (i.e. thrust) loading data. Using fundamental nonlinear equations of motion, MASCOT then calculates vehicle trim and static stability data for the desired flight condition(s). Available flight conditions include six horizontal and six landing rotation conditions with varying options for engine out, crosswind, and sideslip, plus three take-off rotation conditions. Results are displayed through a unique graphical interface developed to provide the non-stability and control expert conceptual design engineer a qualitative scale indicating whether the vehicle has acceptable, marginal, or unacceptable static stability characteristics. If desired, the user can also examine the detailed, quantitative results

Predictors of Bank Distress : The 1907 Crisis in Sweden

This paper contributes to literature on bank distress using the Swedish experience of the in- ternational crisis of 1907, often paralleled with 2008. By employing previously unanalyzed bank-level data, we use logit regressions and principal component analysis to measure the im- pact of pre-crisis bank characteristics on the probability of their subsequent distress. The crisis was characterized by “creative destruction,” as those banks with weaker corporate governance structures, wider branching networks, operating with lower cost efficiency were more likely to experience distress. We find that poor credit allocation rather than foreign borrowing, as often stressed, were associated with ultimate demise

Mechanical Characterization of Patterned Silver Columnar Nanorods with the Atomic Force Microscope.

Patterned silver (Ag) columnar nanorods were prepared by the glancing angle physical vapor deposition method. The Ag columnar nanorods were grown on a Si (100) substrate patterned with posts in a square “lattice” of length 1 μm. An electron beam source was used as the evaporation method, creating the deposition flux which was oriented 85˚ from the substrate normal. A Dimension Icon with NanoScope V controller atomic force microscope was used to measure the spring constant in 10 nm increments along the long axis of five 670 nm long Ag nanorod specimens. The simple beam bending model was used to analyze the data. Unexpected behavior of the spring constant data was observed which prevented a conclusive physically realistic value of the Young’s modulus to be calculated

Matlab Stability and Control Toolbox: Trim and Static Stability Module

This paper presents the technical background of the Trim and Static module of the Matlab Stability and Control Toolbox. This module performs a low-fidelity stability and control assessment of an aircraft model for a set of flight critical conditions. This is attained by determining if the control authority available for trim is sufficient and if the static stability characteristics are adequate. These conditions can be selected from a prescribed set or can be specified to meet particular requirements. The prescribed set of conditions includes horizontal flight, take-off rotation, landing flare, steady roll, steady turn and pull-up/ push-over flight, for which several operating conditions can be specified. A mathematical model was developed allowing for six-dimensional trim, adjustable inertial properties, asymmetric vehicle layouts, arbitrary number of engines, multi-axial thrust vectoring, engine(s)-out conditions, crosswind and gyroscopic effects