Many species risk mountain top extinction long before they reach the top

Analyses of topography show that mountains do not monotonically decrease in area with elevation as is commonly believed and that in reality land area often increases at higher elevations. This finding bodes well for the future of biodiversity since it means that in many parts of the world there are sufficient upslope areas for low- and mid-elevation species to migrate into as temperatures increase. However, more attention needs to be given to determining if migrating species can actually reach these expansive high-elevation areas. Many factors can prevent species from migrating upslope including stable ecotones. Often ecotonal boundaries are not set by mean temperatures alone and thus are not shifting upslope with warming. An example of this are tropical alpine treelines, which are not shifting upslope despite rapid warming potentially due to the stabilizing influences of climatic factors other than mean temperatures (e.g., extreme cold events) or non-climatic factors (e.g., soil or human disturbances). Stable ecotones can potentially prevent species from expanding their ranges into upland areas in which case the amount of land at higher elevations is irrelevant and species may face “mountain top extinctions” long before they reach the actual tops of the mountains

Where are the tropical plants? A call for better inclusion of tropical plants in studies investigating and predicting the effects of climate change

Tropical plant species are systematically underrepresented in large-scale analyses or synthesis looking at the potential effects of global climate change.  The reason being that we simply don’t know enough about the distributions and ecologies of most tropical plant species to predict their fate under climate change. This gaping hole in our knowledge is extremely worrisome given the high diversity of tropical plants, the crucial roles that they play in supporting global diversity and ecosystem function, and the elevated threats that climate change may pose to tropical species in general.  </p

There are many barriers to species’ migrations

Temperature-change trajectories are being used to identify the geographic barriers and thermal ‘cul-de-sacs’ that will limit the ability of many species to track climate change by migrating. We argue that there are many other potential barriers to species’ migrations. These include stable ecotones, discordant shifts in climatic variables, human land use, and species’ limited dispersal abilities. To illustrate our argument, for each 0.5° latitude/longitude grid cell of the Earth’s land surface, we mapped and tallied the number of cells for which future (2060–2080) climate represents an analog of the focal cell’s current climate. We compared results when only considering temperature with those for which both temperature and total annual precipitation were considered in concert. We also compared results when accounting for only geographic barriers (no cross-continental migration) with those involving both geographic and potential ecological barriers (no cross-biome migration). As expected, the number of future climate analogs available to each pixel decreased markedly with each added layer of complexity (e.g. the proportion of the Earth’s land surface without any available future climate analogs increased from 3% to more than 36% with the inclusion of precipitation and ecological boundaries). While including additional variables can increase model complexity and uncertainty, we must strive to incorporate the factors that we know will limit species’ ranges and migrations if we hope to predict the effects of climate change at a high-enough degree of accuracy to guide management decisions

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations

Populations occurring at species\u27 range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species\u27 perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species\u27 distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species\u27 persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species\u27 range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change

The dangers of carbon-centric conservation for biodiversity: a case study in the Andes

Carbon-centric conservation strategies such as the United Nation’s program to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), are expected to simultaneously reduce net global CO2 emissions and mitigate species extinctions in regions with high endemism and diversity, such as the Tropical Andes Biodiversity Hotspot. Using data from the northern Andes, we show, however, that carbon-focused conservation strategies may potentially lead to increased risks of species extinctions if there is displacement (i.e., “leakage”) of land-use changes from forests with large aboveground biomass stocks but relatively poor species richness and low levels of endemism, to forests with lower biomass stocks but higher species richness and endemism, as are found in the Andean highlands (especially low-biomass non-tree growth forms such as herbs and epiphytes that are often overlooked in biological inventories). We conclude that despite the considerable potential benefits of REDD+ and other carbon-centric conservation strategies, there is still a need to develop mechanisms to safeguard against possible negative effects on biodiversity in situations where carbon stocks do not covary positively with species diversity and endemism

Regeneration of Different Plant Functional Types in a Masson Pine Forest Following Pine Wilt Disease

Pine wilt disease is a severe threat to the native pine forests in East Asia. Understanding the natural regeneration of the forests disturbed by pine wilt disease is thus critical for the conservation of biodiversity in this realm. We studied the dynamics of composition and structure within different plant functional types (PFTs) in Masson pine forests affected by pine wilt disease (PWD). Based on plant traits, all species were assigned to four PFTs: evergreen woody species (PFT1), deciduous woody species (PFT2), herbs (PFT3), and ferns (PFT4). We analyzed the changes in these PFTs during the initial disturbance period and during post-disturbance regeneration. The species richness, abundance and basal area, as well as life-stage structure of the PFTs changed differently after pine wilt disease. The direction of plant community regeneration depended on the differential response of the PFTs. PFT1, which has a higher tolerance to disturbances, became dominant during the post-disturbance regeneration, and a young evergreen-broad-leaved forest developed quickly after PWD. Results also indicated that the impacts of PWD were dampened by the feedbacks between PFTs and the microclimate, in which PFT4 played an important ecological role. In conclusion, we propose management at the functional type level instead of at the population level as a promising approach in ecological restoration and biodiversity conservation

Evolutionary heritage shapes tree distributions along an Amazon-to-Andes elevation gradient

Understanding how evolutionary constraints shape the elevational distributions of tree lineages provides valuable insight into the future of tropical montane forests under global change. With narrow elevational ranges, high taxonomic turnover, frequent habitat specialization, and exceptional levels of endemism, tropical montane forests and trees are predicted to be highly sensitive to environmental change. Using plot census data from a gradient traversing > 3,000 m in elevation on the Amazonian flank of the Peruvian Andes, we employ phylogenetic approaches to assess the influence of evolutionary heritage on distribution trends of trees at the genus‐level. We find that closely related lineages tend to occur at similar mean elevations, with sister genera pairs occurring a mean 254 m in elevation closer to each other than the mean elevational difference between non‐sister genera pairs. We also demonstrate phylogenetic clustering both above and below 1,750 m a.s.l, corresponding roughly to the cloud‐base ecotone. Belying these general trends, some lineages occur across many different elevations. However, these highly plastic lineages are not phylogenetically clustered. Overall, our findings suggest that tropical montane forests are home to unique tree lineage diversity, constrained by their evolutionary heritage and vulnerable to substantial losses under environmental changes, such as rising temperatures or an upward shift of the cloud‐base.National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: NSF DEB LTREB 1754647 and NSF DEB LTREB 1754664; Natural Environment Research Council, Grant/Award Number: NE/G018278/1 and NE/L002558/1; Australian Research Council, Grant/Award Number: DP17010409