Convergence of actual, warranted, and natural growth rates in a Kaleckian–Harrodian‐classical model

This paper describes a dynamic one-sector macroeconomic model that draws on both post-Keynesian and classical/neo-Marxian themes. The model features an equilibrium in which Harrod’s actual, warranted, and natural growth rates coincide. Dynamic processes unfolding over both short and long time scales lead the economy to exhibit both business cycles and long waves. The Keynesian stability condition is assumed not to hold, so the model features short-run instability, which is bounded from above by a utilization ceiling. Labor constraints affect distribution through conflict pricing. In contrast to other Kaleckian–Harrodian models, we do not assume an exogenous source of demand. Instead, short-run instability is bounded from below by firms’ expectations that the downturn will eventually reverse

A classical-evolutionary model of technological change

Technological change is a central concern for evolutionary economics, which combines detailed empirical studies and conceptual frameworks with mathematical modeling, among them the NK model from evolutionary biology. Technological change is also a central concern for classical and Marxian economics, where it is studied under the rubric of “cost share-induced technological change.” Among the contributions from classical economists is a classical-evolutionary model first introduced by Duménil and Lévy. This paper strengthens the classical-evolutionary model’s microeconomic foundations by deriving it from an underlying NK model. The result is an aggregate model suitable for macroeconomic analysis that is grounded in evolutionary microeconomic theory. This explicit micro-to-macro link opens avenues for further research. The paper presents new results for the classical-evolutionary model, including a “generating function” method for creating candidate functional forms, and provides three illustrative applications

Cost share-induced technological change: An analytical classical-evolutionary model

This paper builds on prior work by the author on cost share-induced technological change. The theoretical model views selection of candidate innovations as a capital budgeting exercise. In this paper it treats the case in which firms target an incremental rate of profit, which introduces a nonzero threshold into a “selection frontier”. This presents analytical challenges, which are resolved in this paper by assuming that the probability distribution of potential increases in productivity among the set of fit innovations is normal. That permits an explicit derivation of a micro-level model of cost share-induced technological change that can be taken as a candidate functional form for an aggregate model. The model is calibrated against historical data for India, China, and the United States, three large continental economies at different levels of per capita GDP. The model is able to fit the data with reasonable fidelity, and the fitted model parameters can be given a reasonable interpretation. The paper further shows that combining cost share-induced technological change with price-setting behavior produces theoretically interesting results

Mekong Basin Focal Project: Synthesis report

The Mekong Basin Focal Project aims were to assess water use, water productivity and water poverty in the basin, and analyse the opportunities and risks of change in water management that influences water poverty. The main issue facing the Lower Mekong is not water availability (except for seasonally in certain areas such as northeast Thailand) but the impact of changed flows (which may result from dam or irrigation development or climate change) on ecology, fish production, access to water and food security. Poverty is generally decreasing in the Mekong, but the poorer people are not sharing in the improvements. Water governance and sharing of benefits is a key challenge for the Mekong

Small multi-purpose reservoir ensemble planning

People living in arid areas with highly variable rainfall, experience droughts and floods and often have insecure livelihoods. Small multi-purpose reservoirs are a widely used form of infrastructure for the provision of water. They supply water for domestic use, livestock watering, small scale irrigation, and other beneficial uses. The reservoirs are hydrologically linked by the streams that have been dammed. Although reservoirs store a large quantity of water and have a significant effect on downstream flows, they have rarely been considered as systems, with synergies and tradeoffs resulting from the number and density of their structures. Often reservoirs were constructed in a series of projects funded by different agencies, at different times, with little or no coordination among the implementing partners. A significant number are functioning sub-optimally and/or are falling into disrepair. This indicates that there is room for improvement in the planning, operation, and maintenance of small reservoirs. The water management institutions in Volta, Limpopo, and Sao Francisco Basins are being revamped to better serve their constituencies. We have an opportunity to collaborate with government officials, stakeholders, and farmers who are actively looking for ways to improve the planning process. The Small Reservoir Project team developed a tool kit to support the planning, development, and management of small reservoir ensembles on the basin level and the use of small multi-purpose reservoirs that are properly located, well designed, operated and maintained in sustainable fashion, and economically viable on the local/community level. There are tools to improve intervention planning, storage estimation and the analysis of the hydrology, ecology and health of small reservoirs. There ara also tools for the analysis of institutional and economic aspects of the reservoirs. The toolkit not only includes the necessary analytical instruments, but also a set of process oriented tools for improved participatory decision making. The Tool Kit is meant to be a living “document” with additional tools and experiences to be added as they are developed

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance

Scenario-based sustainable water management and urban regeneration

Copyright © ICE PublishingDeployable output (source availability) from water resources in north west England is predicted to decrease over the next 25 years. Alternative supply management strategies are planned to help avoid a deficit in the supply–demand balance within the region but have yet to be considered in detail. This paper assesses the contribution of such an alternative supply strategy at local level on the water resource supply–demand balance at regional level based on a proposed urban regeneration site in north west England. Various water conservation and reuse measures are investigated considering local and regional conditions and constraints. Four future scenarios are presented and used to describe how the future might be (rather than how it will be), to allow an assessment to be made of how current ‘sustainable solutions’ might cope whatever the future holds. The analysis determines the solution contributions under each future and indicates that some strategies will deliver their full intended benefits under scenarios least expected but most needed. It is recommended that to help reduce the regional supply–demand deficit and maximise system resilience to future change, a wide range of water demand management measures should be incorporated on this and other sites