919 research outputs found

    A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic

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    BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0) in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0) values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined

    The Use of Patient Stories as a Knowledge Translation Strategy to Facilitate the Sustainability of Evidence-Based Interventions (EBIs) in Healthcare

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    Background: Patient stories are real-life experiences told from a patient’s or their family’s perspective. In the past, patient stories have served many purposes in healthcare, such as spreading knowledge, educating providers, or conveying the patient experience. Patient stories are increasingly used as a knowledge translation (KT) strategy to improve the uptake of evidence-based interventions (EBIs) into clinical healthcare practices by embodying the patient experience. However, little is known about the use of patient stories to support the sustainability of EBIs in healthcare practices. There is a need to understand how patient stories can be used for the long-term use and benefit of EBIs in practice. Objective: Our research explored how patient stories facilitate the sustainability of EBIs in healthcare. Methods: We conducted a secondary thematic analysis of 20 qualitative interviews from a realist evaluation previously published by Flynn et al. Results: We found that the use of patient stories as a KT strategy for the sustainability of two EBIs created buy-in towards new research, motivated and encouraged staff to continue to engage with the intervention long-term and facilitated the spread of the EBI. Our findings demonstrate how sharing patient stories digitally or through learning collaboratives and online toolkits, can facilitate sustainability by enabling patient stories to be saved and distributed to a wide audience at any time. Despite the potential use of patient stories to support long-term research use, more research is needed to understand how effective patient stories are at supporting the long-term use of research evidence aimed to improve healthcare practice

    Constraints on Type Ia Supernova Progenitor Companions from Early Ultraviolet Observations with Swift

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    We compare early ultraviolet (UV) observations of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) with theoretical predictions for the brightness of the shock associated with the collision between SN ejecta and a companion star. Our simple method is independent of the intrinsic flux from the SN and treats the flux observed with the Swift/Ultra-Violet Optical Telescope (UVOT) as conservative upper limits on the shock brightness. Comparing this limit with the predicted flux for various shock models, we constrain the geometry of the SN progenitor-companion system. We find the model of a 1 M_sun red supergiant companion in Roche lobe overflow to be excluded at a 95% confidence level for most individual SNe for all but the most unfavorable viewing angles. For the sample of 12 SNe taken together, the upper limits on the viewing angle are inconsistent with the expected distribution of viewing angles for RG stars as the majority of companions with high confidence. The separation distance constraints do allow MS companions. A better understanding of the UV flux arising from the SN itself as well as continued UV observations of young SNe Ia will further constrain the possible progenitors of SNe Ia.Comment: accepted versio

    Spatial contrast sensitivity in adolescents with autism spectrum disorders

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    Adolescents with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and typically developing (TD) controls underwent a rigorous psychophysical assessment that measured contrast sensitivity to seven spatial frequencies (0.5-20 cycles/degree). A contrast sensitivity function (CSF) was then fitted for each participant, from which four measures were obtained: visual acuity, peak spatial frequency, peak contrast sensitivity, and contrast sensitivity at a low spatial frequency. There were no group differences on any of the four CSF measures, indicating no differential spatial frequency processing in ASD. Although it has been suggested that detail-oriented visual perception in individuals with ASD may be a result of differential sensitivities to low versus high spatial frequencies, the current study finds no evidence to support this hypothesis

    SN2013fs and SN2013fr: Exploring the circumstellar-material diversity in Type II supernovae

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    We present photometry and spectroscopy of SN2013fs and SN2013fr in the first 100 days post-explosion. Both objects showed transient, relatively narrow Hα\alpha emission lines characteristic of SNeIIn, but later resembled normal SNeII-P or SNeII-L, indicative of fleeting interaction with circumstellar material (CSM). SN2013fs was discovered within 8hr of explosion. Its light curve exhibits a plateau, with spectra revealing strong CSM interaction at early times. It is a less luminous version of the transitional SNIIn PTF11iqb, further demonstrating a continuum of CSM interaction intensity between SNeII-P and IIn. It requires dense CSM within 6.5×\times1014^{14}~cm of the progenitor, from a phase of advanced pre-SN mass loss shortly before explosion. Spectropolarimetry of SN2013fs shows little continuum polarization, but noticeable line polarization during the plateau phase. SN2013fr morphed from a SNIIn at early times to a SNII-L. After the first epoch its narrow lines probably arose from host-galaxy emission, but the bright, narrow Hα\alpha emission at early times may be intrinsic. As for SN2013fs, this would point to a short-lived phase of strong CSM interaction if proven to be intrinsic, suggesting a continuum between SNeIIn and II-L. It is a low-velocity SNII-L, like SN2009kr but more luminous. SN2013fr also developed an IR excess at later times, due to warm CSM dust that require a more sustained phase of strong pre-SN mass loss.Comment: MNRAS accepted. 28 pages, 23 figures, 8 table

    SN~2015da: Late-time observations of a persistent superluminous Type~IIn supernova with post-shock dust formation

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    We present photometry and spectroscopy of the slowly evolving superluminous Type IIn SN2015da. SN2015da is extraordinary for its very high peak luminosity, and also for sustaining a high luminosity for several years. Even at 8\,yr after explosion, SN2015da remains as luminous as the peak of a normal SNII-P. The total radiated energy integrated over this time period (with no bolometric correction) is at least 1.6 FOE. Including a mild bolometric correction, adding kinetic energy of the expanding cold dense shell of swept-up circumstellar material (CSM), and accounting for asymmetry, the total explosion kinetic energy was likely 5-10 FOE. Powering the light curve with CSM interaction requires an energetic explosion and 20 Msun of H-rich CSM, which in turn implies a massive progenitor system above 30 Msun. Narrow P Cyg features show steady CSM expansion at 90 km/s, requiring a high average mass-loss rate of roughly 0.1 Msun/yr sustained for 2 centuries before explosion (although ramping up toward explosion time). No current theoretical model for single-star pre-SN mass loss can account for this. The slow CSM, combined with broad wings of Hα\alpha indicating H-rich material in the unshocked ejecta, disfavor a pulsational pair instability model for the pre-SN mass loss. Instead, violent pre-SN binary interaction is a likely cuprit. Finally, SN2015da exhibits the characteristic asymmetric blueshift in its emission lines from shortly after peak until the present epoch, adding another well-studied superluminous SNeIIn with unambiguous evidence of post-shock dust formation.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figs. submitte

    The fundamental pro-groupoid of an affine 2-scheme

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    A natural question in the theory of Tannakian categories is: What if you don't remember \Forget? Working over an arbitrary commutative ring RR, we prove that an answer to this question is given by the functor represented by the \'etale fundamental groupoid \pi_1(\spec(R)), i.e.\ the separable absolute Galois group of RR when it is a field. This gives a new definition for \'etale \pi_1(\spec(R)) in terms of the category of RR-modules rather than the category of \'etale covers. More generally, we introduce a new notion of "commutative 2-ring" that includes both Grothendieck topoi and symmetric monoidal categories of modules, and define a notion of π1\pi_1 for the corresponding "affine 2-schemes." These results help to simplify and clarify some of the peculiarities of the \'etale fundamental group. For example, \'etale fundamental groups are not "true" groups but only profinite groups, and one cannot hope to recover more: the "Tannakian" functor represented by the \'etale fundamental group of a scheme preserves finite products but not all products.Comment: 46 pages + bibliography. Diagrams drawn in Tik
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