Volcanology and petrology of submarine volcanoes of the New Hebrides island arc

The New Hebrides Island Arc, an intra-oceanic island chain in the southwest Pacific, is formed by subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the Pacific Plate. The southern end of the New Hebrides Island Arc is an ideal location to study the magmatic and tectonic interaction of an emerging island arc as this part of the island chain is less than 3 million years old. A tectonically complex island arc, it exhibits a change in relative subduction rate from ~12cm/yr to 6 cm/yr before transitioning to a left-lateral strike slip zone at its southern end. Two submarine volcanic fields, Gemini-Oscostar and Volsmar, occur at this transition from normal arc subduction to sinistral strike slip movement. Multi-beam bathymetry and dredge samples collected during the 2004 CoTroVE cruise onboard the RV Southern Surveyor help define the relationship between magmatism and tectonics, and the source for these two submarine volcanic fields. Gemini-Oscostar volcanic field (GOVF), dominated by northwest-oriented normal faults, has mature polygenetic stratovolcanoes with evidence for explosive subaqueous eruptions and homogeneous monogenetic scoria cones. Volsmar volcanic field (VVF), located 30 km south of GOVF, exhibits a conjugate set of northwest and eastwest-oriented normal faults, with two polygenetic stratovolcanoes and numerous monogenetic scoria cones. A deep water caldera provides evidence for explosive eruptions at 1500m below sea level in the VVF. Both volcanic fields are dominated by low-K island arc tholeiites and basaltic andesites with calcalkalic andesite and dacite being found only in the GOVF. Geochemical signatures of both volcanic fields continue the along-arc trend of decreasing K2O with both volcanic fields being similar to the New Hebrides central chain lavas. Lavas from both fields display a slight depletion in high field strength elements and heavy rare earth elements, and slight enrichments in large-ion lithophile elements and light rare earth elements with respect to N-MORB mantle. Sr and Nd isotope data correlate with heavy rare earth and high field strength element data to show that both fields are derived from depleted mantle. Pb isotopes define Pacific MORB mantle sources and are consistent with isotopic variation along the New Hebrides Island Arc. Pb isotopes show no evidence for sediment contamination; the subduction component enrichment is therefore a slab-derived enrichment. There is a subtle spatial variation in source chemistry which sees a northerly trend of decreasing enrichment of slab-derived fluids

Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019.

BackgroundAs of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.MethodsFor short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott's rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts.ResultsDuring validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872-1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874-1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876-933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877-983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013-2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges

Continence for Women: A Test of AWHONN's Evidence-Based Protocol in Clinical Practice

To test the effectiveness of an evidence-based protocol for urinary incontinence in increasing identification of women with the condition and improving their outcomes. Design : Prospective formative evaluation study. Setting : Twenty-one public, private, and other women's health care sites. Participants : Women in ambulatory care settings ( N = 1,474) provided descriptive statistics. Clinical outcomes were tested in 132 cases for whom pre- and posttreatment data were available. Interventions : Standardized screening and baseline follow-up forms were used to minimize time burden on clinicians; bladder and pelvic floor muscle training materials were provided to clinicians for distribution. Main Outcome Measures : Self-reported frequency, volume, and quality of life related to incontinence and cost of self-management were used to assess protocol effectiveness. Results : Frequency of incontinence episodes, estimated volume lost per episode, and the cost of self-management decreased. Quality of life improved, as reflected in decreased bother attributed to incontinence and in the number of women avoiding activities such as shopping, exercising, or travel because of incontinence. Conclusions : This simple program of pelvic floor muscle and bladder training, as it has been systematically implemented in a variety of ambulatory women's health care settings, has benefited women's continence status. The results of this project strongly support widespread application.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75663/1/j.1552-6909.2000.tb02752.x.pd

Relative Age Effects in Male Cricket: A Personal Assets Approach to Explain Immediate, Short-Term, and Long-Term Developmental Outcomes

The purpose of this study was to adopt the Personal Assets Framework (PAF) to examine the immediate, short-term, and long-term developmental outcomes associated with relative age effects (RAEs) in male cricket. As such, this study was comprised of three aims: (a) examine the birth quarter (BQ) distribution of players throughout the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) national talent pathway (i.e., Regional U15, Regional U17, England U19, England Lions, England T20, England ODI, and England Test; n = 1800; immediate timescale), (b) explore the youth-to-senior transitions based on BQ and skill-set (i.e., batters and bowlers; short-term timescale), and (c) analyse the average number of games played at senior levels based on BQ and skill-set (i.e., long-term timescale). A chi-square goodness of fit test, Cramer’s V, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals were used to compare the BQ distributions of each cohort against the expected BQ distributions. In the immediate timescale, results showed that relatively older players were overrepresented throughout all the youth levels (p 0.05, V = 0.05–0.15). In the short-term timescale, when the senior cohorts were compared to the expected BQ distributions based on the Regional U15 cohort, relatively younger players were more likely to transition from youth to senior levels (p < 0.05, V = 0.22–0.37). In the long-term timescale, relatively older batters were selected for more games (p < 0.05, V = 0.18–0.51), whereas relatively younger bowlers were selected for more games (p < 0.05, V = 0.17–0.39). Moving forward, it is important for researchers and practitioners to better understand how (bi)annual-age grouping shapes developmental outcomes in across different timescales (i.e., immediate, short-term, and long-term), as well as consider alternative grouping strategies and RAE solutions

Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration

Semantics of a Typed Algebraic Lambda-Calculus

Algebraic lambda-calculi have been studied in various ways, but their semantics remain mostly untouched. In this paper we propose a semantic analysis of a general simply-typed lambda-calculus endowed with a structure of vector space. We sketch the relation with two established vectorial lambda-calculi. Then we study the problems arising from the addition of a fixed point combinator and how to modify the equational theory to solve them. We sketch an algebraic vectorial PCF and its possible denotational interpretations

A Pilot Phase II Study of Digoxin in Patients with Recurrent Prostate Cancer as Evident by Rising PSA

Background: Digoxin was found to inhibit prostate cancer (PCa) growth via the inhibition of HIF-1α synthesis in a mouse model. We hypothesized that a therapeutic dose of digoxin could inhibit human PCa growth and disease progression. Methods: An open label, single arm pilot study was performed. Patients (pts) with non-metastatic, biochemically relapsed PCa with prostate specific antigen doubling time (PSADT) of 3 -24 months and no hormonal therapy within the past 6 months were enrolled. All pts had testosterone 50 ng/dL at baseline. Digoxin was taken daily with dose titration to achieve a target therapeutic level (0.8 – 2 ng/ml); patients had routine follow-up including cardiac monitoring with 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) and digoxin levels. The primary endpoint was the proportion of pts at 6 months post-treatment with a PSADT 200% from the baseline. HIF-1α downstream molecule vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) was measured in plasma.Results: Sixteen pts were enrolled and 14 pts finished the planned 6 months of treatment. Twenty percent (3/15) of the pts had PSA decrease 25% from baseline with a medium duration of 14 months. At 6 months, 5 of 13 (38%) pts had PSADT 200% of the baseline PSADT and were continued on study for an additional 24 weeks of treatment. Two patients had durable PSA response for more than 1 year. Digoxin was well tolerated with possible relation of one grade 3 back pain. No patients had evidence of digoxin toxicity. The digoxin dose was lowered in 2 patients for significant ECGs changes (sinus bradycardia and QT prolongation), and there were probable digoxin-related ECG changes in 3 patients. Plasma VEGF was detected in 4 (25%) patients. Conclusions: Digoxin was well tolerated and showed a prolongation of PSDAT in 38% of the patients. However, there was no significant difference comparing that of similar patients on placebo from historical data. Digoxin at the dose used in this study may have limited benefit for patients with biochemically relapsed prostate cancer

Bovine Tuberculosis in Free-Ranging Carnivores from Michigan

During a survey of carnivores and omnivores for bovine tuberculosis conducted in Michigan (USA) since 1996, Mycobacterium bovis was cultured from lymph nodes pooled from six coyotes (Canis latrans) (four adult female, two adult male), two adult male raccoons (Procyon lotor), one adult male red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and one 1.5-yr-old male black bear (Ursus americanus). One adult, male bobcat (Felis rufus) with histologic lesions suggestive of tuberculosis was negative on culture but positive for organisms belonging to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex when tested by polymerase chain reaction. All the tuberculous animals were taken from three adjoining counties where M. bovis is known to be endemic in the free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. There were two coyotes, one raccoon, one red fox, and one bobcat infected in Alpena county. Montmorency County had two coyotes and one raccoon with M. bovis. Two coyotes and a bear were infected from Alcona County. These free-ranging carnivores/omnivores probably became infected with M. bovis through consumption of tuberculous deer. Other species included in the survey were opossum (Didelphis virginiana), gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and badger (Taxidea taxus); these were negative for M. bovis

Continence for Women: Evaluation of AWHONN's Third Research Utilization Project

To develop an evidence-based protocol for initial evaluation and treatment of urinary incontinence and to design procedures that would facilitate the protocol's implementation into clinical practice. Design : Descriptive report of the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses (AWHONN) Continence for Women Project. Setting : Twenty-one public, private, and other women's health sites. Participants : Women in ambulatory care settings ( N = 1,474) provided demographic statistics. Methods : The protocol was developed, sites were selected, site coordinator training was provided, data collection was facilitated by project-specific tele-forms, and the overall process was evaluated by the science team. Main Outcome Measures : Site representation, patient representation, site coordinator feedback on the training program, and site coordinator experience during project implementation. Results : The process yielded a representative mix of site and patient diversity appropriate for testing of the protocol. Site coordinators felt well-prepared to implement the protocol and experienced increased professional satisfaction because of therapeutic benefits achieved for patients and positive collaboration with physicians. Conclusions : The Continence for Women Project demonstrated the potential for developing and testing evidence-based protocols for clinical practice when the resources of an organization such as AWHONN and the research community are combined.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74617/1/j.1552-6909.2000.tb02751.x.pd