Machine Learning-Based Early Warning System for Urban Flood Management

Characterisation of predictive limits of data-driven models (e.g. ANN) for urban flooding based on actual rainfall.With the growth in urban population and other pressures, such as climate change, the impact and severity of urban flood events are likely to continue to increase. “Intelligent water networks” are viewed as the way forward to ensure that infrastructure services are flexible, safe, reliable and economical. Reduction of flood-risk from urban drainage and sewerage infrastructure is likely to require increasingly sophisticated computational techniques to keep pace with the level of data that is collected both from meteorological and online water monitoring systems in the field. This paper describes and characterises an example of an Early Warning System (EWS), designated "RAPIDS" (RAdar Pluvial flooding Identification for Drainage System) that deals with urban drainage systems and the utilisation of rainfall data concurrently to predict flooding of multiple urban areas in near real-time using a single multi-output Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The system has the potential to provide early warning for decision makers within reasonable time, this being a key requirement determining the operational usefulness of such systems. Computational methods that require hours or days to run will not be able to keep pace with fast-changing situations such as manhole flooding or Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) spills and thus the system developed is able to react in close to real time. This paper includes a sensitivity analysis and demonstrates that the - predictive capability of such a system based on actual rainfall is limited to a maximum of the Time of Concentration (ToC) of each node being modelled. To achieve operationally useful prediction times, predictions of rainfall as input signals are likely to be needed for most urban drainage networks.UKWIR RTM project (2011-12

Reverse Engineering Gene Networks with ANN: Variability in Network Inference Algorithms

Motivation :Reconstructing the topology of a gene regulatory network is one of the key tasks in systems biology. Despite of the wide variety of proposed methods, very little work has been dedicated to the assessment of their stability properties. Here we present a methodical comparison of the performance of a novel method (RegnANN) for gene network inference based on multilayer perceptrons with three reference algorithms (ARACNE, CLR, KELLER), focussing our analysis on the prediction variability induced by both the network intrinsic structure and the available data. Results: The extensive evaluation on both synthetic data and a selection of gene modules of "Escherichia coli" indicates that all the algorithms suffer of instability and variability issues with regards to the reconstruction of the topology of the network. This instability makes objectively very hard the task of establishing which method performs best. Nevertheless, RegnANN shows MCC scores that compare very favorably with all the other inference methods tested. Availability: The software for the RegnANN inference algorithm is distributed under GPL3 and it is available at the corresponding author home page (http://mpba.fbk.eu/grimaldi/regnann-supmat

Targeting the affective brain-a randomized controlled trial of real-time fMRI neurofeedback in patients with depression.

open access articleFunctional magnetic resonance imaging neurofeedback (fMRI-NF) training of areas involved in emotion processing can reduce depressive symptoms by over 40% on the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS). However, it remains unclear if this efficacy is specific to feedback from emotion-regulating regions. We tested in a single-blind, randomized, controlled trial if upregulation of emotion areas (NFE) yields superior efficacy compared to upregulation of a control region activated by visual scenes (NFS). Forty-three moderately to severely depressed medicated patients were randomly assigned to five sessions augmentation treatment of either NFE or NFS training. At primary outcome (week 12) no significant group mean HDRS difference was found (B = −0.415 [95% CI −4.847 to 4.016], p = 0.848) for the 32 completers (16 per group). However, across groups depressive symptoms decreased by 43%, and 38% of patients remitted. These improvements lasted until follow-up (week 18). Both groups upregulated target regions to a similar extent. Further, clinical improvement was correlated with an increase in self-efficacy scores. However, the interpretation of clinical improvements remains limited due to lack of a sham-control group. We thus surveyed effects reported for accepted augmentation therapies in depression. Data indicated that our findings exceed expected regression to the mean and placebo effects that have been reported for drug trials and other sham-controlled high-technology interventions. Taken together, we suggest that the experience of successful self-regulation during fMRI-NF training may be therapeutic. We conclude that if fMRI-NF is effective for depression, self-regulation training of higher visual areas may provide an effective alternative

Evidence-Based Guideline on Laparoscopy in Pregnancy: Commissioned by the British Society for Gynaecological Endoscopy (BSGE) Endorsed by the Royal College of Obstetricians & Gynaecologists (RCOG).

Laparoscopy is widely utilised to diagnose and treat acute and chronic, gynaecological and general surgical conditions. It has only been in recent years that laparoscopy has become an acceptable surgical alternative to open surgery in pregnancy. To date there is little clinical guidance pertaining to laparoscopic surgery in pregnancy. This is why the BSGE commissioned this guideline. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane library were searched up to February 2017 and evidence was collated and graded following the NICE-approved process. The conditions included in this guideline are laparoscopic management of acute appendicitis, acute gall bladder disease and symptomatic benign adnexal tumours in pregnancy. The intended audience for this guideline is obstetricians and gynaecologists in secondary and tertiary care, general surgeons and anaesthetists. However, only laparoscopists who have adequate laparoscopic skills and who perform complex laparoscopic surgery regularly should undertake laparoscopy in pregnant women, since much of the evidence stems from specialised centres

Penalty-free feasibility boundary convergent multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for the optimization of water distribution systems

This paper presents a new penalty-free multi-objective evolutionary approach (PFMOEA) for the optimization of water distribution systems (WDSs). The proposed approach utilizes pressure dependent analysis (PDA) to develop a multi-objective evolutionary search. PDA is able to simulate both normal and pressure deficient networks and provides the means to accurately and rapidly identify the feasible region of the solution space, effectively locating global or near global optimal solutions along its active constraint boundary. The significant advantage of this method over previous methods is that it eliminates the need for ad-hoc penalty functions, additional “boundary search” parameters, or special constraint handling procedures. Conceptually, the approach is downright straightforward and probably the simplest hitherto. The PFMOEA has been applied to several WDS benchmarks and its performance examined. It is demonstrated that the approach is highly robust and efficient in locating optimal solutions. Superior results in terms of the initial network construction cost and number of hydraulic simulations required were obtained. The improvements are demonstrated through comparisons with previously published solutions from the literature

The ventro-medial prefrontal cortex: a major link between the autonomic nervous system, regulation of emotion, and stress reactivity?

Recent progress in neuroscience revealed diverse regions of the CNS which moderate autonomic and affective responses. The ventro-medial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) plays a key role in these regulations. There is evidence that vmPFC activity is associated with cardiovascular changes during a motor task that are mediated by parasympathetic activity. Moreover, vmPFC activity makes important contributions to regulations of affective and stressful situations

Sustained Action of Developmental Ethanol Exposure on the Cortisol Response to Stress in Zebrafish Larvae and Adults

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedThis study was supported by the National Centre for the replacement, refinement and reduction of animals in research

Dose-Dependent Effects of Endotoxin on Neurobehavioral Functions in Humans

Clinical and experimental evidence document that inflammation and increased peripheral cytokine levels are associated with depression-like symptoms and neuropsychological disturbances in humans. However, it remains unclear whether and to what extent cognitive functions like memory and attention are affected by and related to the dose of the inflammatory stimulus. Thus, in a cross-over, double-blind, experimental approach, healthy male volunteers were administered with either placebo or bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) at doses of 0.4 (n = 18) or 0.8 ng/kg of body weight (n = 16). Pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, norephinephrine and cortisol concentrations were analyzed before and 1, 1.75, 3, 4, 6, and 24 h after injection. In addition, changes in mood and anxiety levels were determined together with working memory (n-back task) and long term memory performance (recall of emotional and neutral pictures of the International Affective Picture System). Endotoxin administration caused a profound transient physiological response with dose-related elevations in body temperature and heart rate, increases in plasma interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra), salivary and plasma cortisol, and plasma norepinephrine. These changes were accompanied by dose-related decreased mood and increased anxiety levels. LPS administration did not affect accuracy in working memory performance but improved reaction time in the high-dose LPS condition compared to the control conditon. In contrast, long-term memory performance was impaired selectively for emotional stimuli after administration of the lower but not of the higher dose of LPS. These data suggest the existence of at least two counter-acting mechanisms, one promoting and one inhibiting cognitive performance during acute systemic inflammation

Mourning and melancholia revisited: correspondences between principles of Freudian metapsychology and empirical findings in neuropsychiatry

Freud began his career as a neurologist studying the anatomy and physiology of the nervous system, but it was his later work in psychology that would secure his place in history. This paper draws attention to consistencies between physiological processes identified by modern clinical research and psychological processes described by Freud, with a special emphasis on his famous paper on depression entitled 'Mourning and melancholia'. Inspired by neuroimaging findings in depression and deep brain stimulation for treatment resistant depression, some preliminary physiological correlates are proposed for a number of key psychoanalytic processes. Specifically, activation of the subgenual cingulate is discussed in relation to repression and the default mode network is discussed in relation to the ego. If these correlates are found to be reliable, this may have implications for the manner in which psychoanalysis is viewed by the wider psychological and psychiatric communities