Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

In 2005, the ECMWF held a workshop on stochastic parameterisation, at which the convection was seen as being a key issue. That much is clear from the working group reports and particularly the statement from working group 1 that “it is clear that a stochastic convection scheme is desirable”. The present note aims to consider our current status in comparison with some of the issues raised and hopes expressed in that working group report

Upper‐level midlatitude troughs in boreal winter have an amplified low‐latitude linkage over Africa

In boreal winter, strong upper-level midlatitude troughs across the Atlantic–Africa–southwestern Asia sector generate substantial tropical–extratropical interaction and have become recognized as important factors in some extreme weather events. As such, they represent important dynamic features to understand and capture in weather forecasts, as well as in climate models for projections on longer timescales. Here, we empirically study the 20% of winter days with strongest trough signatures during 1982–2020 at each longitude across the sector, and show that the trough impact over northern Africa, most notably in central parts, is particularly strong in magnitude, low-latitude extent and persistence, leading to the characterization of a northern Africa mode of several-days weather fluctuation. Weather conditions that follow strong troughs from the eastern Atlantic to the Central Mediterranean include: (i) a warming tendency across much of northern Africa, generally of several Celsius magnitude ahead of the trough, and >1°C even extending to the south of 10° N in central parts and continuing eastward until the Ethiopian Highlands; (ii) precipitation development further north than normal across northern tropical Africa, especially strong over longitudes corresponding to a northward extension of the main Congo rain belt. The intertropical discontinuity and low-level heat low are also shifted significantly north, with the complex of anomalies persisting for several days, beyond the timescale of the trough. For context, at all other trough longitudes across the sector, a warming signal does emerge (statistically significant), but with much shorter persistence (2–3 days), smaller magnitude and extending southward clearly only to 15–20° N. Mid-level tropical plumes of moisture are also typically present for strong troughs from the eastern Atlantic to southwestern Asia, and these alone can lead to weather extremes. However, low-level warming and mid-level moistening are uniquely juxtaposed at low latitudes over central Africa, where a near-equatorial signature develops

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable

Multi-tiered distributed computing platform

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Inclusive neutron cross-sections at forward angles from Nb Nb and Au Au collisions at 800-MeV/nucleon

Inclusive neutron spectra were measured at 0°, 4°, 8°, 15°, 30°, and 42° from Nb-Nb and Au-Au collisions at 800 MeV/nucleon. A peak that originates from neutron evaporation from the projectile appears in the spectra at angles out to 8°. The shapes and magnitudes of the spectra are compared with those calculated from models of nucleus-nucleus collisions. The differential cross sections for Au-Au collisions are about four times those for Nb-Nb collisions. The predictions of the Vlasov-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (VUU) and QMD theories agree with the angular distributions of the differential cross sections except at small angles; the VUU prediction overestimates the angular distributions from a few degrees to about 20°, whereas the QMD prediction underestimates the angular distributions below 8°. The Firestreak model overestimates the angular distribution for Nb-Nb collisions and underestimates it for Au-Au collisions. Also, the VUU and QMD models agree with the measured double-differential cross sections in more angular and energy regions than the Firestreak and intranuclear cascade models; however, none of the models can account for the peaks at small angles (θ≤15°)

A geometric proof of the Kochen-Specker no-go theorem

We give a short geometric proof of the Kochen-Specker no-go theorem for non-contextual hidden variables models. Note added to this version: I understand from Jan-Aake Larsson that the construction we give here actually contains the original Kochen-Specker construction as well as many others (Bell, Conway and Kochen, Schuette, perhaps also Peres).Comment: This paper appeared some years ago, before the author was aware of quant-ph. It is relevant to recent developments concerning Kochen-Specker theorem

‘Eastern African paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense long rains

An observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern Africa. Here we show the decline corresponds to a later onset and earlier cessation of the long rains, with a similar seasonal maximum in area-averaged daily rainfall. Previous studies have explored the role of remote teleconnections, but those mechanisms do not sufficiently explain the decline or the newly identified change in seasonality. Using a large ensemble of observations, reanalyses and atmospheric simulations, we propose a regional mechanism that explains both the observed decline and the recent partial recovery. A decrease in surface pressure over Arabia and warmer north Arabian Sea is associated with enhanced southerlies and an earlier cessation of the long rains. This is supported by a similar signal in surface pressure in many atmosphere-only models giving lower May rainfall and an earlier cessation. Anomalously warm seas south of Eastern Africa delay the northward movement of the tropical rain-band, giving a later onset. These results are key in understanding the paradox. It is now a priority to establish the balance of mechanisms that have led to these trends, which are partially captured in atmosphere-only simulations

The Australian Corneal Graft Registry 2015 Report

The Australian Corneal Graft Registry (ACGR) opened in May 1985 and has now been operating for 30 years. Over the years, we have collected information on more than 30,000 corneal grafts. At registration, we seek information on the donor, eye bank practices, the recipient, the surgeon, the graft type and the operative procedure. Follow-up then occurs at approximately yearly intervals for an indefinite period, and ceases upon graft failure, or the death or loss-to-follow-up of the patient. At each round of follow-up, we request information on the survival of the graft, the visual outcomes, and any relevant post-operative events and treatments. The data are entered into an Access database and checked for consistency. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate analyses are subsequently performed using SPSS and Stata software, and the report is eventually collated.Eye Bank of South Australia, Lions New South Wales Eye Bank, Lions Eye Bank of Western Australia, Lions Eye Donation Service, Victoria, Queensland Eye Bank, The Australian Government Organ and Tissue Authority (DonateLife