Social networks and citizen election forecasting: the more friends the better

Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our interactions with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks when analyzing why citizens are good forecasters. We use a unique German survey and consider direct measures of social networks in order to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics – size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens’ election forecasts

Predictive modelling of groundwater abstraction and artificial recharge of cooling water

Well doublet ground source heating and cooling systems are rapidly becoming a popular alternative to conventional heating and cooling systems in the UK, principally because of the substantial reduction in carbon emissions that can be achieved. The sustainability of such systems, and their expected lifetime, is largely governed by the fate of the waste heat following re-injection into the aquifer. Numerical modelling using the reactive transport model SHEMAT (Simulator for HEat and MAss Transport) has been undertaken to determine the feasibility of a groundwater-based cooling scheme to remove heat generated by a UK laboratory. The proposed scheme involves the use of groundwater, pumped from a single abstraction borehole drilled into a sandstone aquifer, to feed a heat exchanger cooling system with re-injection back into the aquifer via three injection boreholes. A series of simulations have been undertaken to determine the optimum configuration of the abstraction and recharge boreholes to minimize the effects on the aquifer. To prolong the thermal breakthrough time at the abstraction well, it is concluded that the abstraction borehole must be located up the hydraulic gradient from the three recharge boreholes

Regional distribution of ground temperature in the chalk aquifer of London, UK

The distribution of subsurface temperature beneath London (with emphasis on the depth interval between 60 and 100 m below ground level) has been estimated from fluid temperature logs run in boreholes and water wells during the 1980s to the 2000s. Although the temperature distribution in the Lea Valley–New River area may have been disturbed as a result of artificial recharge–abstraction trials and operation, one can elsewhere identify a clear trend of increasing temperature from east (>11 °C) to SW (>15 °C). The observed pattern is speculatively explained by: (1) the thick Tertiary sequence and low transmissivity of the Chalk in the SW resulting in a temperature at depth compatible with that expected from conduction of the prevailing geothermal flux; (2) recharge of cooler water through Chalk–Basal Sands subcrop and down-dip towards abstraction centres in central London potentially modifying the geothermal gradient via advective processes