A hybrid GIS and AHP approach for modelling actual and future forest fire risk under climate change accounting water resources attenuation role

none4siForest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an eect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Dierent factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been aected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, oering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R2). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions.openBusico G.; Giuditta E.; Kazakis N.; Colombani N.Busico, G.; Giuditta, E.; Kazakis, N.; Colombani, N

A hybrid GIS and AHP approach for modelling actual and future forest fire risk under climate change accounting water resources attenuation role

Forest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an eect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Dierent factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been aected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, oering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R2). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions

ΕΚΤΙΜΗΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΤΡΩΤΟΤΗΤΑΣ ΚΑΡΣΤΙΚΩΝ ΥΔΡΟΦΟΡΕΩΝ ME ΤΗ ΜΕΘΟΔΟ PaPRIKa: Η ΠΕΡΙΠΤΩΣΗ ΤΟΥ ΥΔΡΟΦΟΡΕΑ ΜΙΤΣΙΚΕΛΙΟΥ ΙΩΑΝΝΙΝΩΝ, ΕΛΛΑΔΑ

Σκοπός της παρούσας εργασίας είναι η εκτίμηση της τρωτότητας στην εξωτερική ρύπανση σε τμήμα του καρστικού υδροφορέα Μιτσικελίου στο Νομό Ιωαννίνων. Ο υδροφορέας αυτός αναπτύσσεται στα ανθρακικά πετρώματα ασβεστολιθικού τύπου της Ιόνιας ζώνης. Για την εκτίμηση της τρωτότητας εφαρμόσθηκε η μέθοδος PaPRIKa, η οποία λαμβάνει υπόψη τέσσερις παραμέτρους: P (Protection, ικανότητα προστασίας), R (Reservoir, γεωλογικός ταμιευτήρας), I (Infiltration, κατείσδυση), και Ka (Karstification, ανάπτυξη του καρστ). Με βάση τον χάρτη τρωτότητας, προκύπτει ότι η περιοχή έρευνας χαρακτηρίζεται από υψηλή έως πολύ υψηλή τρωτότητα. Η υψηλή τρωτότητα οφείλεται στον έντονο κατακερματισμό των ασβεστολίθων, στον υψηλό βαθμό καρστικοποίησης, στην απουσία επικάρστ και στη σχετικά αυξημένη υδροπερατότητα του εδαφικού καλύμματος, όπου αυτό αναπτύσσεται. Τέλος, γίνονται προτάσεις ιδιαίτερων μέτρων προστασίας του καρστικού υδροφορέα Μιτσικελίου, λόγω της υψηλής τρωτότητας που εμφανίζει

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global patterns of nitrate isotope composition in rivers and adjacent aquifers reveal reactive nitrogen cascading

Remediation of nitrate pollution of Earth’s rivers and aquifers is hampered by cumulative biogeochemical processes and nitrogen sources. Isotopes (δ15N, δ18O) help unravel spatiotemporal nitrogen(N)-cycling of aquatic nitrate (NO3−). We synthesized nitrate isotope data (n = ~5200) for global rivers and shallow aquifers for common patterns and processes. Rivers had lower median NO3− (0.3 ± 0.2 mg L−1, n = 2902) compared to aquifers (5.5 ± 5.1 mg L−1, n = 2291) and slightly lower δ15N values (+7.1 ± 3.8‰, n = 2902 vs +7.7 ± 4.5‰, n = 2291), but were indistinguishable in δ18O (+2.3 ± 6.2‰, n = 2790 vs +2.3 ± 5.4‰, n = 2235). The isotope composition of NO3− was correlated with water temperature revealing enhanced N-cascading in warmer climates. Seasonal analyses revealed higher δ15N and δ18O values in wintertime, suggesting waste-related N-source signals are better preserved in the cold seasons. Isotopic assays of nitrate biogeochemical transformations are key to understanding nitrate pollution and to inform beneficial agricultural and land management strategies