53 research outputs found

    A novel fuzzy multi-objective framework to construct optimal prediction intervals for wind power forecast

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    The forecasting behavior of the high volatile and unpredictable wind power energy has always been a challenging issue in the power engineering area. In this regard, this paper proposes a new multi-objective framework based on fuzzy idea to construct optimal prediction intervals (Pis) to forecast wind power generation more sufficiently. The proposed method makes it possible to satisfy both the PI coverage probability (PICP) and PI normalized average width (PINAW), simultaneously. In order to model the stochastic and nonlinear behavior of the wind power samples, the idea of lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is used here. Regarding the optimization tool, an improved version of particle swam optimization (PSO) is proposed. In order to see the feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method, the practical data of a wind farm in Australia is used as the case study

    Uncertainty-Aware Management of Smart Grids Using Cloud-Based LSTM-Prediction Interval

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    This article introduces an uncertainty-aware cloud-fog-based framework for power management of smart grids using a multiagent-based system. The power management is a social welfare optimization problem. A multiagent-based algorithm is suggested to solve this problem, in which agents are defined as volunteering consumers and dispatchable generators. In the proposed method, every consumer can voluntarily put a price on its power demand at each interval of operation to benefit from the equal opportunity of contributing to the power management process provided for all generation and consumption units. In addition, the uncertainty analysis using a deep learning method is also applied in a distributive way with the local calculation of prediction intervals for sources with stochastic nature in the system, such as loads, small wind turbines (WTs), and rooftop photovoltaics (PVs). Using the predicted ranges of load demand and stochastic generation outputs, a range for power consumption/generation is also provided for each agent called ``preparation range\u27\u27 to demonstrate the predicted boundary, where the accepted power consumption/generation of an agent might occur, considering the uncertain sources. Besides, fog computing is deployed as a critical infrastructure for fast calculation and providing local storage for reasonable pricing. Cloud services are also proposed for virtual applications as efficient databases and computation units. The performance of the proposed framework is examined on two smart grid test systems and compared with other well-known methods. The results prove the capability of the proposed method to obtain the optimal outcomes in a short time for any scale of grid

    Automated Deep CNN-LSTM Architecture Design for Solar Irradiance Forecasting

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    Cyber-Attack Detection and Cyber-Security Enhancement in Smart DC-Microgrid Based on Blockchain Technology and Hilbert Huang Transform

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    Due to the simultaneous development of DC-microgrids (DC-MGs) and the use of intelligent control, monitoring and operation methods, as well as their structure, these networks can be threatened by various cyber-attacks. Overall, a typical smart DC-MG includes battery, supercapacitors and power electronic devices, fuel cell, solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems, and loads such as smart homes, plug-in hybrid electrical vehicle (PHEV), smart sensors and network communication like fiber cable or wireless to send and receive data. Given these issues, cyber-attack detection and securing data exchanged in smart DC-MGs like CPS has been considered by experts as a significant subject in recent years. In this study, in order to detect false data injection attacks (FDIAs) in a MG system, Hilbert-Huang transform methodology along with blockchain-based ledger technology is used for enhancing the security in the smart DC-MGs with analyzing the voltage and current signals in smart sensors and controllers by extracting the signal details. Results of simulation on the different cases are considered with the objective of verifying the efficacy of the proposed model. The results offer that the suggested model can provide a more precise and robust detection mechanism against FDIA and improve the security of data exchanging in a smart DC-MG
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