The Cost of Simplifying Air Travel When Modeling Disease Spread

BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed

Immunoassays Based on Penicillium marneffei Mp1p Derived from Pichia pastoris Expression System for Diagnosis of Penicilliosis

BACKGROUND: Penicillium marneffei is a dimorphic fungus endemic in Southeast Asia. It can cause fatal penicilliosis in humans, particularly in HIV-infected people. Diagnosis of this infection is difficult because its clinical manifestations are not distinctive. Specialized laboratory tests are necessary to establish a definitive diagnosis for successful management. We have demonstrated previously that a cell wall mannoprotein Mp1p, abundant in P. marneffei, is a potential biomarker for diagnosis of P. marneffei infections. In the present study, we describe immunoassays based on Mp1p derived from the yeast Pichia pastoris expression system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We generated monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) and rabbit polyclonal antibodies (PAbs) against Mp1p expressed in P. pastoris. Subsequently, we developed two Mp1p antigen capture ELISAs which employed MAbs for both the capture and detecting antibodies (MAb-MAb pair) or PAbs and MAbs as the capture and detecting antibodies (PAbs-MAb pair) respectively. The two Mp1p antigen ELISAs detected Mp1p specifically in cultures of P. marneffei yeast phase at 37-40 degrees C and had no cross-reaction with other tested pathogenic fungi. The sensitivities and specificities of the two antigen assays were found to be 55% (11/20) and 99.6% (538/540) for MAb-MAb Mp1p ELISA, and 75% (15/20) and 99.4% (537/540) for PAbs-MAb Mp1p ELISA performed using 20 sera with culture-confirmed penicilliosis, and 540 control sera from 15 other mycosis patients and 525 healthy donors. Meanwhile, we also developed an anti-Mp1p IgG antibody ELISA with an evaluated sensitivity of 30% (6/20) and a specificity of 98.5% (532/540) using the same sera. Furthermore, combining the results of Mp1p antigen and antibody detection improved the sensitivity of diagnosis to 100% (20/20). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Simultaneous detection of antigen and antibody using the immunoassays based on Mp1p derived from P. pastoris greatly improves detection sensitivity. The procedures should be useful for the routine diagnosis of penicilliosis.published_or_final_versio

Chronic diarrhea associated with persistent norovirus excretion in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: report of two cases

BACKGROUND: Chronic diarrhea in patients treated with immunosuppressive agents or suffering from immunosuppressive disease can represent a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge to the clinician. Norovirus infection, a major cause of acute epidemic diarrhea, has been described as a cause of chronic diarrhea in patients who are immunosuppressed, including transplant recipients and the very young. CASE PRESENTATIONS: We describe two patients, a 64 year-old man and a 59 year-old woman, both suffering from chronic lymphocytic leukemia and hypogammaglobulinemia, who developed chronic diarrhea resistant to therapy. In both cases, after months of symptoms, persistent norovirus infection--documented by repeatedly-positive high-sensitivity stool enzyme immunoassay--was found to be the cause. Both patients died with active diarrheal symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the first cases of advanced chronic lymphocytic leukemia to suffer from chronic symptomatic norovirus infection. Clinicians caring for such patients, particularly those with concomitant hypogammaglobulinema, who have chronic unexplained diarrhea, should consider norovirus infection in the differential diagnosis

Host genetics determine susceptibility to avian influenza infection and transmission dynamics

Host-genetic control of influenza virus infection has been the object of little attention. In this study we determined that two inbred lines of chicken differing in their genetic background, Lines 0 and C-B12, were respectively relatively resistant and susceptible to infection with the low pathogenicity influenza virus A/Turkey/England/647/77 as defined by substantial differences in viral shedding trajectories. Resistant birds, although infected, were unable to transmit virus to contact birds, as ultimately only the presence of a sustained cloacal shedding (and not oropharyngeal shedding) was critical for transmission. Restriction of within-bird transmission of virus occurred in the resistant line, with intra-nares or cloacal infection resulting in only local shedding and failing to transmit fully through the gastro-intestinal-pulmonary tract. Resistance to infection was independent of adaptive immune responses, including the expansion of specific IFNγ secreting cells or production of influenza-specific antibody. Genetic resistance to a novel H9N2 virus was less robust, though significant differences between host genotypes were still clearly evident. The existence of host-genetic determination of the outcome of influenza infection offers tools for the further dissection of this regulation and also for understanding the mechanisms of influenza transmission within and between birds

Cutaneous head and neck melanoma in OPTiM, a randomized phase 3 trial of talimogene laherparepvec versus granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor for the treatment of unresected stage IIIB/IIIC/IV melanoma.

Background Cutaneous head and neck melanoma has poor outcomes and limited treatment options. In OPTiM, a phase 3 study in patients with unresectable stage IIIB/IIIC/IV melanoma, intralesional administration of the oncolytic virus talimogene laherparepvec improved durable response rate (DRR; continuous response ≥6 months) compared with subcutaneous granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF).Methods Retrospective review of OPTiM identified patients with cutaneous head and neck melanoma given talimogene laherparepvec (n = 61) or GM-CSF (n = 26). Outcomes were compared between talimogene laherparepvec and GM-CSF treated patients with cutaneous head and neck melanoma.Results DRR was higher for talimogene laherparepvec-treated patients than for GM-CSF treated patients (36.1% vs 3.8%; p = .001). A total of 29.5% of patients had a complete response with talimogene laherparepvec versus 0% with GM-CSF. Among talimogene laherparepvec-treated patients with a response, the probability of still being in response after 12 months was 73%. Median overall survival (OS) was 25.2 months for GM-CSF and had not been reached with talimogene laherparepvec.Conclusion Treatment with talimogene laherparepvec was associated with improved response and survival compared with GM-CSF in patients with cutaneous head and neck melanoma. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: 1752-1758, 2016

Technical note: Open-paleo-data implementation pilot - The PAGES 2k special issue

Data stewardship is an essential element of the publication process. Knowing how to enact data polices that are described only in general terms can be difficult, however. Examples are needed to model the implementation of open-data polices in actual studies. Here we explain the procedure used to attain a high and consistent level of data stewardship across a special issue of the journal Climate of the Past. We discuss the challenges related to (1) determining which data are essential for public archival, (2) using data generated by others, and (3) understanding data citations. We anticipate that open-data sharing in paleo sciences will accelerate as the advantages become more evident and as practices that reduce data loss become the accepted convention

A mixed methods study to evaluate the feasibility of using the Adolescent Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool App in paediatric diabetes care in preparation for a longitudinal cohort study

An evaluation study was carried out to determine the feasibility of integrating the Adolescent Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (ADNAT) App into UK paediatric diabetes care, to ascertain best practice standards and to determine methodological recommendations for a future cohort study. Methods A non-randomised, cohort, mixed methods study design was used to ensure equality of access to ADNAT for all participants at three sites in the North West of England. Following UK Medical Research Council guidance, the RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness (potential and perceived), adoption, implementation, maintenance) framework was used to guide study objectives and feasibility outcomes. Patients who completed ADNAT (completers) were compared with those who failed to complete (non-completers). Patients’ glycaemic control (HbA1c) was accessed from their clinical data at baseline and at 6 months, alongside their ADNAT scores which were correlated with changes in HbA1c levels. The diabetes teams (respondents) completed a web-based survey and attended focus group interviews. Results Eighty-nine patients were recruited. Withdrawal rates were low at 4.5% (n = 4). Forty-four patients (49.4%) completed ADNAT, leaving 45 (50.6%) non-completers. There were large baseline differences in HbA1c and variable rates of change at 6 months. After adjusting for baseline HbA1C and site in an analysis of covariance, completers had a lower post-ADNAT mean HbA1C level than non-completers at 6 months (-5.42 mmol/mol, 95% CI −11.48, 0.64). Patients’ glycaemic control (HbA1c) at 6 months correlated reasonably well with their ADNAT scores (Spearman’s rho = 0.46). Survey and focus group data showed that ADNAT was judged to be an effective clinical tool by the diabetes teams. Value to patients was perceived by the teams to be linked to parental support, age and previous diabetes education. The combined data triangulated. It served to capture different dimensions which were used to define changes to achieve practice standards and methodological recommendations. Conclusions The combined data showed that ADNAT has the potential to be a clinically viable tool. It has demonstrated the need for a randomised design that is tailored for a ‘hard to reach’ adolescent population. A cluster randomised controlled trial that involves sequential but random rollout of ADNAT over multiple time periods may be the most appropriate and is currently being considered for the larger study

Patients' knowledge and perception on optic neuritis management before and after an information session

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients' understanding of their condition affect the choice of treatment. The aim of this study is to evaluate patients' understanding and treatment preferences before and after an information session on the treatment of acute optic neuritis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire consisting of 14 questions before and after an information session presented by a neuro-ophthalmologist. The information session highlighted the treatment options and the treatment effects based on the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial in plain patient language. The information session stressed the finding that high dose intravenous steroid therapy accelerated visual recovery but does not change final vision and that treatment with oral prednisone alone resulted in a higher incidence of recurrent optic neuritis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Before the information session, 23 (85%) participants knew that there was treatment available for ON and this increased to 27 (100%) after the information session. There were no significantly change in patients knowledge of symptoms of ON and purpose of treatment before and after the information session. Before the information session, 4 (14%) respondents reported they would like to be treated by oral steroid alone in the event of an optic neuritis and 5 (19%) did not respond. After the education session, only 1 patient (4%) indicated they would undergo treatment with oral steroid alone but 25 (92%) indicated they would undergo treatment with intravenous steroid treatment, alone or in combination with oral treatment. Results indicated that there were significant differences in the numbers of participants selecting that they would undergo treatment with a steroid injection (n = 22, p = 0.016).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, patients have shown good understanding of the symptoms and signs of optic neuritis. The finding that significant increases in the likelihood of patients engaging in best practice can be achieved with an information session is very important. This suggests that patient knowledge of available treatments and outcomes can play an important role in implementing and adopting guideline recommendations.</p

2020 APHRS/HRS Expert Consensus Statement on the Investigation of Decedents with Sudden Unexplained Death and Patients with Sudden Cardiac Arrest, and of Their Families.

This international multidisciplinary document intends to provide clinicians with evidence-based practical patient-centered recommendations for evaluating patients and decedents with (aborted) sudden cardiac arrest and their families. The document includes a framework for the investigation of the family allowing steps to be taken, should an inherited condition be found, to minimize further events in affected relatives. Integral to the process is counseling of the patients and families, not only because of the emotionally charged subject, but because finding (or not finding) the cause of the arrest may influence management of family members. The formation of multidisciplinary teams is essential to provide a complete service to the patients and their families, and the varied expertise of the writing committee was formulated to reflect this need. The document sections were divided up and drafted by the writing committee members according to their expertise. The recommendations represent the consensus opinion of the entire writing committee, graded by Class of Recommendation and Level of Evidence. The recommendations were opened for public comment and reviewed by the relevant scientific and clinical document committees of the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS); the document underwent external review and endorsement by the partner and collaborating societies. While the recommendations are for optimal care, it is recognized that not all resources will be available to all clinicians. Nevertheless, this document articulates the evaluation that the clinician should aspire to provide for patients with sudden cardiac arrest, decedents with sudden unexplained death, and their families