Ethics of a partially effective dengue vaccine: Lessons from the Philippines

Dengvaxia, a chimeric yellow fever tetravalent dengue vaccine developed by SanofiPasteur is widely licensed in dengue-endemic countries. In a large cohort study Dengvaxia was found to partially protect children who had prior dengue virus (DENV) infections but sensitized seronegative children to breakthrough DENV disease of enhanced severity. In 2019, the European Medicines Agency and the US FDA issued licenses that reconciled safety issues by restricting vaccine to individuals with prior dengue infections. Using revised Dengvaxia efficacy and safety data we sought to estimate hospitalized and severe dengue cases among the more than 800,000 9 year-old children vaccinated in the Philippines. Despite an overall vaccine efficacy of 69% during 4 years post-vaccination we project there will be more than one thousand vaccinated seronegative and seropositive children hospitalized for severe dengue. Assisting these children through a program of enhanced surveillance leading to improved care deserves widespread support. Clinical responses observed during breakthrough dengue infections in vaccinated individuals counsel prudence in design of vaccine policies. Recommendations concerning continued use of this dengue vaccine are: (1) obtain a better definition of vaccine efficacy and safety through enhanced phase 4 surveillance, (2) obtain a valid, accessible, sensitive, specific and affordable serological test that identifies past wild-type dengue virus infection and (3) clarify safety and efficacy of Dengvaxia in flavivirus immunes. In the absence of an acceptable serological screening test these unresolved ethical issues suggest Dengvaxia be given only to those signing informed consent.Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 79249

Impacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission

In 2015 and 2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through dengue virus (DENV) endemic areas of Latin America. These viruses are of the same family, share a vector and may interact competitively or synergistically through human immune responses. We examine dengue incidence from Brazil and Colombia before, during, and after the Zika epidemic. We find evidence that dengue incidence was atypically low in 2017 in both countries. We investigate whether subnational Zika incidence is associated with changes in dengue incidence and find mixed results. Using simulations with multiple assumptions of interactions between DENV and ZIKV, we find cross-protection suppresses incidence of dengue following Zika outbreaks and low periods of dengue incidence are followed by resurgence. Our simulations suggest correlations in DENV and ZIKV reproduction numbers could complicate associations between ZIKV incidence and post-ZIKV DENV incidence and that periods of low dengue incidence are followed by large increases in dengue incidence

Impact of pre-existing dengue immunity on human antibody and memory B cell responses to Zika

Little is known about enduring memory B cell (MBC) responses to Zika virus (ZIKV) and their relationship with circulating antibodies. Here we comprehensively assess MBC frequency and specificity alongside serum binding and neutralizing antibody responses to ZIKV ~2 weeks and ~8 months postinfection in 31 pediatric subjects with 0, 1 or >1 prior infections with the related dengue virus (DENV). ZIKV infection elicits a robust type-specific MBC response, and the majority of late convalescent anti-ZIKV serum neutralizing activity is attributable to ZIKV-specific antibodies. The number of prior DENV infections does not influence type-specific or cross-reactive MBC responses, although ZIKV has the highest cross-reactivity with DENV3. DENV cross-reactive MBCs expanded by ZIKV infection decline in number and proportion by late convalescence. Finally, ZIKV induces greater cross-reactivity in the MBC pool than in serum antibodies. Our data suggest immunity to DENV only modestly shapes breadth and magnitude of enduring ZIKV antibody responses

Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk

As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved 1 . Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual- and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements) 2,3 . We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of ≤1:40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres >1:40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres ≤1:100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age

Longitudinal analysis of antibody cross-neutralization following zika virus and dengue virus infection in Asia and the Americas

Background The 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are related mosquito-borne flaviviruses of major importance globally. While monoclonal antibodies and plasma from DENV-immune donors can neutralize or enhance ZIKV in vitro and in small-animal models, and vice versa, the extent, duration, and significance of cross-reactivity in humans remains unknown, particularly in flavivirus-endemic regions. Methods We studied neutralizing antibodies to ZIKV and DENV1-4 in longitudinal serologic specimens collected through 3 years after infection from people in Latin America and Asia with laboratory-confirmed DENV infections. We also evaluated neutralizing antibodies to ZIKV and DENV1-4 in patients with Zika through 6 months after infection. Results In patients with Zika, the highest neutralizing antibody titers were to ZIKV, with low-level cross-reactivity to DENV1-4 that was greater in DENV-immune individuals. We found that, in primary and secondary DENV infections, neutralizing antibody titers to ZIKV were markedly lower than to the infecting DENV and heterologous DENV serotypes. Cross-neutralization was greatest in early convalescence, then ZIKV neutralization decreased, remaining at low levels over time. Conclusions Patterns of antibody cross-neutralization suggest that ZIKV lies outside the DENV serocomplex. Neutralizing antibody titers can distinguish ZIKV from DENV infections when all viruses are analyzed simultaneously. These findings have implications for understanding natural immunity and vaccines