Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Estonia Case Study

Estonia has experienced a long-lasting and strong influence of international migration on regional population growth. Post-war immigrants account for about 36 per cent of the total population, and are concentrated in larger cities of Northern Estonia. Regionally, the relative proportions of the native-born and immigrant origin sub-populations are important for the understanding of population change and internal migration flows in the 1980-1990s. In Estonia, the quality of migration data requires careful assessment. The preservation of Soviet-type record-keeping has reduced data quality in the 1990s, already low, and use of the data should keep data quality problems in mind. Otherwise, false conclusions can be reached. To describe internal migration patterns, it has proved technically feasible and very useful to disaggregate the county population into rural and urban components, and correspondingly, the migration flows into four directions (urban-urban, urban-rural, rural-urban and rural-rural). During the 1980s the pattern of population growth and internal migration has changed in Estonia. Reflecting the turnaround in long-term population processes, migration development reached the advanced stage with more or less regionally balanced in- and out-migration flows and decreasing importance of net migration. Accordingly, to understand current trends and patterns, explanations must be sought from the 1980s which has served a starting point for the present trends rather than from the period of economic transition in the 1990s. As a part of the turnaround, the century-long persistent rural depopulation has come to an end and the moderate growth has started reflecting natural population increase as well as deurbanization. In the 1980s two developments have occurred in parallel: migratory increase of rural population led by a deurbanizing native-born population, and continued urban population growth as a result of the population momentum of pre-transition immigrants. In future decades, the urban deconcentration will probably be the underlying trend in Estonia. In Estonia, noticeable proportion of territory and population is located in islands. However, the island population does not show any systematic difference in the type of internal migration. Particularly, the depopulation of island populations, observed in several comparable European cases, is not occurring. Each life-course stage was found to have its specific migration pattern, more stable than the pattern for the total population. In many cases the changes of internal migration are determined by the change in the proportion of population in different life-course stages. Additionally, the life-course approach has been useful in demonstrating the features of the present Estonian internal migration pattern which appear closer to the countries of comparable in demographic development, more or less regardless of the significant differences in the level of economic development. Among life-course groups, in Estonia the older working age population was characterized by the strongest deurbanization intensities in 1995. The same group has also undergone the largest modification of migration pattern during the economic transition (1987-1995)

Evidence for potential and inductive convection during intense geomagnetic events using normalized superposed epoch analysis

The relative contribution of storm‐time ring current development by convection driven by either potential or inductive electric fields has remained an unresolved question in geospace research. Studies have been published supporting each side of this debate, including views that ring current buildup is entirely one or the other. This study presents new insights into the relative roles of these storm main phase processes. We perform a superposed epoch study of 97 intense ( Dst Min    Dst Min  > –100 nT) storms using OMNI solar wind and ground‐based data. Instead of using a single reference time for the superpositioning of the events, we choose four reference times and expand or contract each phase of every event to the average length of this phase, creating a normalized timeline for the superposed epoch analysis. Using the bootstrap method, we statistically demonstrate that timeline normalization results in better reproduction of average storm dynamics than conventional methods. Examination of the Dst reveals an inflection point in the intense storm group consistent with two‐step main phase development, which is supported by results for the southward interplanetary magnetic field and various ground‐based magnetic indices. This two‐step main‐phase process is not seen in the moderate storm timeline and data sets. It is determined that the first step of Dst development is due to potential convective drift, during which an initial ring current is formed. The negative feedback of this hot ion population begins to limit further ring current growth. The second step of the main phase, however, is found to be a more even mix of potential and inductive convection. It is hypothesized that this is necessary to achieve intense storm Dst levels because the substorm dipolarizations are effective at breaking through the negative feedback barrier of the existing inner magnetospheric hot ion pressure peak. Key Points Moderate and intense geomagnetic storms Evidence for potential and inductive convection Normalized superposed epoch analysisPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/97285/1/jgra50014.pd

Statistical Storm Time Examination Of Mlt-Dependent Plasmapause Location Derived From Image Euv

The location of the outer edge of the plasmasphere (the plasmapause) as a function of geomagnetic storm time is identified and investigated statistically in regard to the solar wind driver. Imager for Magnetopause‐to‐Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) data are used to create an automated method that locates and extracts the plasmapause. The plasmapause extraction technique searches a set range of possible plasmasphere densities for a maximum gradient. The magnetic local time (MLT)‐dependent plasmapause results are compared to manual extraction results. The plasmapause results from 39 intense storms are examined along a normalized epoch storm timeline to determine the average plasmapause L shell as a function of MLT and storm time. The average extracted plasmapause L shell follows the expected storm time plasmapause behavior. The results show that during the main phase, the plasmapause moves earthward and a plasmaspheric drainage plume forms near dusk and across the dayside during strong convection. During the recovery phase, the plume rejoins the corotationally driven plasma while the average plasmapause location moves farther from the Earth. The results are also examined in terms of the solar wind driver. We find evidence that shows that the different categories of solar wind drivers result in different plasmaspheric configurations. During magnetic cloud‐driven events the plasmaspheric drainage plume appears at the start of the main phase. During sheath‐driven events the plume forms later but typically extends further in MLT.Key PointsDeveloped an automated procedure to extract plasmapause from IMAGE EUV imagesValidate and evaluate results using statistical analysis of 39 intense stormsShow that plasmasphere dynamics vary systematically with CME‐v‐CIR drivin

Comparative effectiveness of enalapril, lisinopril, and ramipril in the treatment of patients with chronic heart failure: a propensity score-matched cohort study

Background: Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) are recommended as first-line therapy in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The comparative effectiveness of different ACEIs is not known. Methods and results: 4,723 out-patients with stable HFrEF prescribed either enalapril, lisinopril, or ramipril were identified from three registries in Norway, England, and Germany. In three separate matching procedures, patients were individually matched with respect to both dose equivalents and their respective propensity scores for ACEI treatment. During a follow-up of 21,939 patient-years, 360 (49.5%), 337 (52.4%), and 1,119 (33.4%) patients died amongst those prescribed enalapril, lisinopril, and ramipril, respectively. In univariable analysis of the general sample, enalapril and lisinopril were both associated with higher mortality as compared with ramipril treatment (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, p < 0.001, and HR 1.38, CI 1.22-1.56, p < 0.001, respectively). Patients prescribed enalapril or lisinopril had similar mortality (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.92-1.24, p = 0.41). However, there was no significant association between ACEI choice and all-cause mortality in any of the matched samples (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91-1.25, p = 0.40; HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.96-1.32, p = 0.16; and HR 1.08, HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.93-1.31, p = 0.25 for enalapril vs. ramipril, lisinopril vs. ramipril, and enalapril vs. lisinopril, respectively). Results were confirmed in subgroup analyses with respect to age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, NYHA functional class, cause of HFrEF, rhythm, and systolic blood pressure. Conclusion: Our results suggest that enalapril, lisinopril and ramipril are equally effective in the treatment of patients with HFrEF when given at equivalent doses

Implementing neuroimaging and eye tracking methods to assess neurocognitive development of young infants in low- and middle-income countries

Infants and children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are frequently exposed to a range of environmental risk factors which may negatively affect their neurocognitive development. The mechanisms by which factors such as undernutrition and poverty impact development and cognitive outcomes in early childhood are poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is due in part to a paucity of objective assessment tools which can be implemented across different cultural settings and in very young infants. Over the last decade, technological advances, particularly in neuroimaging, have opened new avenues for research into the developing human brain, allowing us to investigate novel biological associations. This paper presents functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), electroencephalography (EEG) and eye tracking (ET) as objective, cross-cultural methods for studying infant neurocognitive development in LMICs, and specifically their implementation in rural Gambia, West Africa. These measures are currently included, as part of a broader battery of assessments, in the Brain Imaging for Global Health (BRIGHT) project, which is developing brain function for age curves in Gambian and UK infants from birth to 24 months of age. The BRIGHT project combines fNIRS, EEG and ET with behavioural, growth, health and sociodemographic measures. The implementation of these measures in rural Gambia are discussed, including methodological and technical challenges that needed to be addressed to ensure successful data acquisition. The aim is to provide guidance to other groups seeking to implement similar methods in their research in other LMICs to better understand associations between environmental risk and early neurocognitive development

fNIRS for tracking brain development in the context of global health projects

Over the past 25 years, functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) has emerged as a valuable tool to study brain function, and it is in younger participants where it has found, arguably, its most successful application. Thanks to its infant-friendly features, the technology has helped shape research in the neurocognitive development field by contributing to our understanding of the neural underpinnings of sensory perception and socio-cognitive skills. Furthermore, it has provided avenues of exploration for markers of compromised brain development. Advances in fNIRS instrumentation and methods have enabled the next step in the evolution of its applications including the investigation of the effects of complex and interacting socio-economic and environmental adversities on brain development. To do this, it is necessary to take fNIRS out of well-resourced research labs (the majority located in high-income countries) to study at-risk populations in resource-poor settings in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we review the use of this technology in global health studies, we discuss the implementation of fNIRS studies in LMICs with a particular emphasis on the Brain Imaging for Global Health (BRIGHT) project, and we consider its potential in this emerging field

Comparative efficacy of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) for cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) improve cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). The comparative efficacy of individual SGLT2i remains unclear. We searched PubMed, www.clinicaltrials.gov and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomised controlled trials exploring the use of canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, empagliflozin or ertugliflozin in patients with T2D. Comparators included placebo or any other active treatment. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints were cardiovascular mortality and worsening heart failure (HF). Evidence was synthesised using network meta-analysis (NMA). Sixty-four trials reporting on 74,874 patients were included. The overall quality of evidence was high. When compared with placebo, empagliflozin and canagliflozin improved all three endpoints, whereas dapagliflozin improved worsening HF. When compared with other SGLT2i, empagliflozin was superior for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality reduction. Empagliflozin, canagliflozin and dapagliflozin had similar effects on improving worsening HF. Ertugliflozin had no effect on any of the three endpoints investigated. Sensitivity analyses including extension periods of trials or excluding studies with a treatment duration of < 52 weeks confirmed the main results. Similar results were obtained when restricting mortality analyses to patients included in cardiovascular outcome trials (n = 38,719). Empagliflozin and canagliflozin improved survival with empagliflozin being superior to the other SGLT2i. Empagliflozin, canagliflozin and dapagliflozin had similar effects on improving worsening HF. Prospective head-to-head comparisons would be needed to confirm these results

A new solar windâ driven global dynamic plasmapause model: 2. Model and validation

A new solar windâ driven global dynamic plasmapause (NSWâ GDP) model has been constructed based on the largest currently available database containing 49,119 plasmapause crossing locations and 3957 plasmapause profiles (corresponding to 48,899 plasmapause locations), from 18 satellites during 1977â 2015 covering four solar cycles. This model is compiled by the Levenbergâ Marquardt method for nonlinear multiparameter fitting and parameterized by VSW, BZ, SYMâ H, and AE. Continuous and smooth magnetic local time dependence controlled mainly by the solar windâ driven convection electric field ESW is also embedded in this model. Compared with previous empirical models based on our database, this new model improves the forecasting accuracy and capability for the global plasmapause. The diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of the plasmapause can be captured by the new model. The NSWâ GDP model can potentially be used to forecast the global plasmapause shape with upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and corresponding predicted values of SYMâ H and AE and can also be used as input parameters for other inner magnetospheric coupling models, such as dynamic radiation belt and ring current models and even MHD models.Key PointsA new solar windâ driven global dynamic plasmapause model based on multisatellite observations is constructedThis model is parameterized by VSW, interplanetary magnetic field BZ, SYMâ H, and AE and has continuous and smooth MLT dependenceThis model is potentially applicable to inner magnetospheric research studies and space weather forecastsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138428/1/jgra53619.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138428/2/jgra53619_am.pd

A new solar windâ driven global dynamic plasmapause model: 1. Database and statistics

A large database, possibly the largest plasmapause location database, with 49,119 plasmapause crossing events from the in situ observations and 3957 plasmapause profiles (corresponding to 48,899 plasmapause locations in 1 h magnetic local time (MLT) intervals) from optical remote sensing from 1977 to 2015 by 18 satellites is compiled. The responses of the global plasmapause to solar wind and geomagnetic changes and the diurnal, seasonal, solar cycle variations of the plasmapause are investigated based on this database. It is found that the plasmapause shrinks toward the Earth globally and a clear bulge appears in the afternoon to premidnight MLT sector as the solar wind or geomagnetic conditions change from quiet to disturbed. The bulge is clearer during storm times or southward interplanetary magnetic field. The diurnal variations of the plasmapause are most probably the result of the difference between the magnetic dipole tilt and the Earth’s spin axis. The seasonal variations of the plasmapause are characterized by equinox valleys and solstice peaks. It is also found that the plasmapause approaches the Earth during high solar activity and expands outward during low solar activity. This database will help us study and understand the evolution properties of the plasmapause shape and the interaction processes of the plasmasphere, the ring current, and the radiation belts in the magnetosphere.Key PointsThe largest currently available plasmapause location database is compiled based on observations from 18 satellites from 1977 to 2015This database reveals the responses of the global plasmapause locations to solar wind and geomagnetic changesThe plasmapause locations exhibit clear MLTâ dependent diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variationsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138358/1/jgra53617_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138358/2/jgra53617.pd