The Error is the Feature: how to Forecast Lightning using a Model Prediction Error

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critical threshold is reached. Recent progress in data science however demonstrates that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields in science, especially in areas dealing with large datasets. We therefore present a new approach to the problem of predicting thunderstorms based on machine learning. The core idea of our work is to use the error of two-dimensional optical flow algorithms applied to images of meteorological satellites as a feature for machine learning models. We interpret that optical flow error as an indication of convection potentially leading to thunderstorms and lightning. To factor in spatial proximity we use various manual convolution steps. We also consider effects such as the time of day or the geographic location. We train different tree classifier models as well as a neural network to predict lightning within the next few hours (called nowcasting in meteorology) based on these features. In our evaluation section we compare the predictive power of the different models and the impact of different features on the classification result. Our results show a high accuracy of 96% for predictions over the next 15 minutes which slightly decreases with increasing forecast period but still remains above 83% for forecasts of up to five hours. The high false positive rate of nearly 6% however needs further investigation to allow for an operational use of our approach.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

Infinite dimensional Lie algebras in 4D conformal quantum field theory

The concept of global conformal invariance (GCI) opens the way of applying algebraic techniques, developed in the context of 2-dimensional chiral conformal field theory, to a higher (even) dimensional space-time. In particular, a system of GCI scalar fields of conformal dimension two gives rise to a Lie algebra of harmonic bilocal fields, V_m(x,y), where the m span a finite dimensional real matrix algebra M closed under transposition. The associative algebra M is irreducible iff its commutant M' coincides with one of the three real division rings. The Lie algebra of (the modes of) the bilocal fields is in each case an infinite dimensional Lie algebra: a central extension of sp(infty,R) corresponding to the field R of reals, of u(infty,infty) associated to the field C of complex numbers, and of so*(4 infty) related to the algebra H of quaternions. They give rise to quantum field theory models with superselection sectors governed by the (global) gauge groups O(N), U(N), and U(N,H)=Sp(2N), respectively.Comment: 16 pages, with minor improvements as to appear in J. Phys.

The role of ADAM17 during liver damage

Abstract A disintegrin and metalloprotease (ADAM) 17 is a membrane bound protease, involved in the cleavage and thus regulation of various membrane proteins, which are critical during liver injury. Among ADAM17 substrates are tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 and 2 (TNFR1, TNFR2), the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) ligands amphiregulin (AR) and heparin-binding-EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF), the interleukin-6 receptor (IL-6R) and the receptor for a hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), c-Met. TNFα and its binding receptors can promote liver injury by inducing apoptosis and necroptosis in liver cells. Consistently, hepatocyte specific deletion of ADAM17 resulted in increased liver cell damage following CD95 stimulation. IL-6 trans-signaling is critical for liver regeneration and can alleviate liver damage. EGFR ligands can prevent liver damage and deletion of amphiregulin and HB-EGF can result in increased hepatocyte death and reduced proliferation. All of which indicates that ADAM17 has a central role in liver injury and recovery from it. Furthermore, inactive rhomboid proteins (iRhom) are involved in the trafficking and maturation of ADAM17 and have been linked to liver damage. Taken together, ADAM17 can contribute in a complex way to liver damage and injury

Long-lived virus-reactive memory T cells generated from purified cytokine-secreting T helper type 1 and type 2 effectors

Many vaccination strategies and immune cell therapies aim at increasing the numbers of memory T cells reactive to protective antigens. However, the differentiation lineage and therefore the optimal generation conditions of CD4 memory cells remain controversial. Linear and divergent differentiation models have been proposed, suggesting CD4 memory T cell development from naive precursors either with or without an effector-stage intermediate, respectively. Here, we address this question by using newly available techniques for the identification and isolation of effector T cells secreting effector cytokines. In adoptive cell transfers into normal, nonlymphopenic mice, we show that long-lived virus-specific memory T cells can efficiently be generated from purified interferon γ–secreting T helper (Th) type 1 and interleukin (IL)-4– or IL-10–secreting Th2 effectors primed in vitro or in vivo. Importantly, such effector-derived memory T cells were functional in viral challenge infections. They proliferated vigorously, rapidly modulated IL-7 receptor expression, exhibited partial stability and flexibility of their cytokine patterns, and exerted differential effects on virus-induced immunopathology. Thus, cytokine-secreting effectors can evade activation-induced cell death and develop into long-lived functional memory cells. These findings demonstrate the efficiency of linear memory T cell differentiation and encourage the design of vaccines and immune cell therapies based on differentiated effector T cells

Occurrence of testicular microlithiasis in androgen insensitive hypogonadal mice

<b>Background</b>: Testicular microliths are calcifications found within the seminiferous tubules. In humans, testicular microlithiasis (TM) has an unknown etiology but may be significantly associated with testicular germ cell tumors. Factors inducing microlith development may also, therefore, act as susceptibility factors for malignant testicular conditions. Studies to identify the mechanisms of microlith development have been hampered by the lack of suitable animal models for TM.<BR/> <b>Methods</b>: This was an observational study of the testicular phenotype of different mouse models. The mouse models were: cryptorchid mice, mice lacking androgen receptors (ARs) on the Sertoli cells (SCARKO), mice with a ubiquitous loss of androgen ARs (ARKO), hypogonadal (hpg) mice which lack circulating gonadotrophins, and hpg mice crossed with SCARKO (hpg.SCARKO) and ARKO (hpg.ARKO) mice.<BR/> <b>Results</b>: Microscopic TM was seen in 94% of hpg.ARKO mice (n=16) and the mean number of microliths per testis was 81 +/- 54. Occasional small microliths were seen in 36% (n=11) of hpg testes (mean 2 +/- 0.5 per testis) and 30% (n=10) of hpg.SCARKO testes (mean 8 +/- 6 per testis). No microliths were seen in cryptorchid, ARKO or SCARKO mice. There was no significant effect of FSH or androgen on TM in hpg.ARKO mice.<BR/> <b>Conclusions</b>: We have identified a mouse model of TM and show that lack of endocrine stimulation is a cause of TM. Importantly, this model will provide a means with which to identify the mechanisms of TM development and the underlying changes in protein and gene expression

During early stages of cancer, neutrophils initiate anti-tumor immune responses in tumor-draining lymph nodes

Tumor-draining lymph nodes (LNs) play a crucial role during cancer spread and in initiation of anti-cancer adaptive immunity. Neutrophils form a substantial population of cells in LNs with poorly understood functions. Here, we demonstrate that, during head and neck cancer (HNC) progression, tumor-associated neutrophils transmigrate to LNs and shape anti-tumor responses in a stage-dependent manner. In metastasis-free stages (N0), neutrophils develop an antigen-presenting phenotype (HLA-DR+CD80+CD86+ICAM1+PD-L1-) and stimulate T cells (CD27+Ki67highPD-1-). LN metastases release GM-CSF and via STAT3 trigger development of PD-L1+ immunosuppressive neutrophils, which repress T cell responses. The accumulation of neutrophils in T cell-rich zones of LNs in N0 constitutes a positive predictor for 5-year survival, while increased numbers of neutrophils in LNs of N1-3 stages predict poor prognosis in HNC. These results suggest a dual role of neutrophils as essential regulators of anti-cancer immunity in LNs and argue for approaches fostering immunostimulatory activity of these cells during cancer therapy

Spin-flop transition in Gd5Ge4 observed by x-ray resonant magnetic scattering and first-principles calculations of magnetic anisotropy

X-ray resonant magnetic scattering was employed to study a fully reversible spin-flop transition in orthorhombic Gd5Ge4 and to elucidate details of the magnetic structure in the spin-flop phase. The orientation of the moments at the three Gd sites flop 90° from the c axis to the a axis when a magnetic field, Hsf=9 kOe, is applied along the c axis at T=9 K. The magnetic space group changes from Pnm′a to Pn′m′a′ for all three Gd sublattices. The magnetic anisotropy energy determined from experimental measurements is in good agreement with the calculations of the magnetic anisotropy based on the spin-orbit coupling of the conduction electrons and an estimation of the dipolar interactions anisotropy. No significant magnetostriction effects were observed at the spin-flop transition