Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan : a modelling study

Funding National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre of Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. Acknowledgments This study was part-funded via the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre of Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control (C4; 1135172) and a grant-in-aid from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (16K15367).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Impact of Different Screening Model Structures on Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality Predictions: The Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction (MCLIR) Methodology

Background. To interpret cervical cancer screening model results, we need to understand the influence of model structure and assumptions on cancer incidence and mortality predictions. Cervical cancer cases and deaths following screening can be attributed to 1) (precancerous or cancerous) disease that occurred after screening, 2) disease that was present but not screen detected, or 3) disease that was screen detected but not successfully treated. We examined the relative contributions of each of these using 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models. Methods. The maximum clinical incidence reduction (MCLIR) method compares changes in the number of clinically detected cervical cancers and mortality among 4 scenarios: 1) no screening, 2) one-time perfect screening at age 45 that detects all existing disease and delivers perfect (i.e., 100% effective) treatment of all screen-detected disease, 3) one-time realistic-sensitivity cytological screening and perfect treatment of all screen-detected disease, and 4) one-time realistic-sensitivity cytological screening and realistic-effectiveness treatment of all screen-detected disease. Results. Predicted incidence reductions ranged from 55% to 74%, and mortality reduction ranged from 56% to 62% within 15 years of follow-up for scenario 4 across models. The proportion of deaths due to disease not detected by screening differed across the models (21%–35%), as did the failure of treatment (8%–16%) and disease occurring after screening (from 1%–6%). Conclusions. The MCLIR approach aids in the interpretation of variability across model results. We showed that the reasons why screening failed to prevent cancers and deaths differed between the models. This likely reflects uncertainty about unobservable model inputs and structures; the impact of this uncertainty on policy conclusions should be examined via comparing findings from different well-calibrated and validated model platforms

Comparison of index-linked HIV testing for children and adolescents in health facility and community settings in Zimbabwe: findings from the interventional B-GAP study.

BACKGROUND: Index-linked HIV testing, whereby children of individuals with HIV are targeted for testing, increases HIV yield but relies on uptake. Community-based testing might address barriers to testing access. In the Bridging the Gap in HIV testing and care for children in Zimbabwe (B-GAP) study, we investigated the uptake and yield of index-linked testing in children and the uptake of community-based vs facility-based HIV testing in Zimbabwe. METHODS: B-GAP was an interventional study done in the city of Bulawayo and the province of Matabeleland South between Jan 29 and Dec 12, 2018. All HIV-positive attendees (index patients) at six urban and three rural primary health-care clinics were offered facility-based or community-based HIV testing for children (age 2-18 years) living in their households who had never been tested or had tested as HIV-negative more than 6 months ago. Community-based options involved testing in the home by either a trained lay worker with a blood-based rapid diagnostic test (used in facility-based testing), or by the child's caregiver with an oral HIV test. Among consenting individuals, the primary outcome was testing uptake in terms of the proportion of eligible children tested. Secondary outcomes were uptake of the different HIV testing methods, HIV yield (proportion of eligible children who tested positive), and HIV prevalence (proportion of HIV-positive children among those tested). Logistic regression adjusting for within-index clustering was used to investigate index patient and child characteristics associated with testing uptake, and the uptake of community-based versus facility-based testing. FINDINGS: Overall, 2870 index patients were linked with 6062 eligible children (3115 [51·4%] girls [sex unknown in seven], median age 8 years [IQR 5-13]). Testing was accepted by index patients for 5326 (87·9%) children, and 3638 were tested with a known test outcome, giving an overall testing uptake among 6062 eligible children of 60·0%. 39 children tested positive for HIV, giving an HIV prevalence among the 3638 children of 1·1% and an HIV yield among 6062 eligible children of 0·6%. Uptake was positively associated with female sex in the index patient (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1·56 [95% CI 1·38-1·77], p<0·0001) and child (aOR 1·10 [1·03-1·19], p=0·0080), and negatively associated with any financial cost of travel to a clinic (aOR 0·86 [0·83-0·88], p<0·0001), increased child age (6-9 years: aOR 0·99 (0·89-1·09); 10-15 years: aOR 0·91 [0·83-1·00]; and 16-18 years: aOR 0·75 [0·66-0·85]; p=0·0001 vs 2-5 years), and unknown HIV status of the mother (aOR 0·81 [0·68-0·98], p=0·027 vs HIV-positive status). Additionally, children had increased odds of being tested if community-based testing was chosen over facility-based testing at screening (1320 [73·9%] children tested of 1787 vs 2318 [65·5%] of 3539; aOR 1·49 [1·22-1·81], p=0·0001). INTERPRETATION: The HIV yield of index-linked testing was low compared with blanket testing approaches in similar settings. Index-linked HIV testing can improve testing uptake among children, although strategies that improve testing uptake in older children are needed. Community based testing by lay workers is a feasible strategy that can be used to improve uptake of HTS among children and adolescents. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust

Beyond the black box: Promoting mathematical collaborations for elucidating interactions in soil ecology

© 2019 The Authors. Understanding soil systems is critical because they form the structural and nutritional foundation for plants and thus every terrestrial habitat and agricultural system. In this paper, we encourage increased use of mathematical models to drive forward understanding of interactions in soil ecological systems. We discuss several distinctive features of soil ecosystems and empirical studies of them. We explore some perceptions that have previously deterred more extensive use of models in soil ecology and some advances that have already been made using models to elucidate soil ecological interactions. We provide examples where mathematical models have been used to test the plausibility of hypothesized mechanisms, to explore systems where experimental manipulations are currently impossible, or to determine the most important variables to measure in experimental and natural systems. To aid in the development of theory in this field, we present a table describing major soil ecology topics, the theory previously used, and providing key terms for theoretical approaches that could potentially address them. We then provide examples from the table that may either contribute to important incremental developments in soil science or potentially revolutionize our understanding of plant-soil systems. We challenge scientists and mathematicians to push theoretical explorations in soil systems further and highlight three major areas for the development of mathematical models in soil ecology: Theory spanning scales and ecological hierarchies, processes, and evolution

Beyond the black box: promoting mathematical collaborations for elucidating interactions in soil ecology

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Understanding soil systems is critical because they form the structural and nutritional foundation for plants and thus every terrestrial habitat and agricultural system. In this paper, we encourage increased use of mathematical models to drive forward understanding of interactions in soil ecological systems. We discuss several distinctive features of soil ecosystems and empirical studies of them. We explore some perceptions that have previously deterred more extensive use of models in soil ecology and some advances that have already been made using models to elucidate soil ecological interactions. We provide examples where mathematical models have been used to test the plausibility of hypothesized mechanisms, to explore systems where experimental manipulations are currently impossible, or to determine the most important variables to measure in experimental and natural systems. To aid in the development of theory in this field, we present a table describing major soil ecology topics, the theory previously used, and providing key terms for theoretical approaches that could potentially address them. We then provide examples from the table that may either contribute to important incremental developments in soil science or potentially revolutionize our understanding of plant–soil systems. We challenge scientists and mathematicians to push theoretical explorations in soil systems further and highlight three major areas for the development of mathematical models in soil ecology: theory spanning scales and ecological hierarchies, processes, and evolution

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control.

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making

Evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health facility-based and community-based index-linked HIV testing strategies for children: protocol for the B-GAP study in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: The number of new paediatric infections per year has declined in sub-Saharan Africa due to prevention-of-mother-to-child HIV transmission programmes; many children and adolescents living with HIV remain undiagnosed. In this protocol paper, we describe the methodology for evaluating an index-linked HIV testing approach for children aged 2-18 years in health facility and community settings in Zimbabwe. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Individuals attending for HIV care at selected primary healthcare clinics (PHCs) will be asked if they have any children aged 2-18 years in their households who have not been tested for HIV. Three options for HIV testing for these children will be offered: testing at the PHC; home-based testing performed by community workers; or an oral mucosal HIV test given to the caregiver to test the children at home. All eligible children will be followed-up to ascertain whether HIV testing occurred. For those who did not test, reasons will be determined, and for those who tested, the HIV test result will be recorded. The primary outcome will be uptake of HIV testing. The secondary outcomes will be preferred HIV testing method, HIV yield, prevalence and proportion of those testing positive linking to care and having an undetectable viral load at 12 months. HIV test results will be stratified by sex and age group, and factors associated with uptake of HIV testing and choice of HIV testing method will be investigated. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for this study was granted by the Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Institutional Review Board of the Biomedical Research and Training Institute. Study results will be presented at national policy meetings and national and international research conferences. Results will also be published in international peer-reviewed scientific journals and disseminated to study communities at the end of study

Addressing the challenges and relational aspects of index-linked HIV testing for children and adolescents: insights from the B-GAP study in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Index-linked HIV testing, targeted at sexual contacts or children of individuals with HIV, may improve yield and efficiency. The B-GAP study evaluated index-linked testing approaches in health facility and community-based settings. This paper reports on a qualitative study to understand factors that affect uptake of index-linked HIV testing for children and adolescents. METHODS: We conducted four focus group discussions (FGDs) with caregivers who had their children tested through B-GAP and one FGD with providers who offered index-linked HIV testing to indexes. We aimed to understand enabling and inhibiting factors in the decision-making process. Translated and transcribed transcripts were read for familiarisation. Following initial coding, analytical memos were written to identify emerging key themes across the data. RESULTS: Our findings showed there was inadequate emphasis on paediatric HIV in routine care which had a negative impact on subsequent uptake of testing for children. Once the decision to test had been made, access to facilities was sometimes challenging and alleviated by community-based testing. A key finding was that HIV testing is not a discrete event but a process that was influenced by relationships with other family members and children themselves. These relationships raised complex issues that could prevent or delay the testing process. CONCLUSION: There is a need to improve messaging on the importance of HIV testing for children and adolescents and to provide support to caregivers and their families in order to improve testing uptake. Addressing access barriers through the provision of community-based testing and implementing a family-centred approach can optimise index-linked testing

Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination. METHODS: The WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions. FINDINGS: Girls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4-19·8) to 2·1 (2·0-2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2-90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5-63·0) cases during this period. Adding twice-lifetime screening reduced the incidence to 0·7 (0·6-1·6) cases per 100 000 women-years (96·7% [91·3-96·7] reduction) and averted an extra 12·1 million (9·5-13·7) cases. Girls-only vaccination was predicted to result in elimination in 60% (58-65) of LMICs based on the threshold of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, in 99% (89-100) of LMICs based on the threshold of ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and in 87% (37-99) of LMICs based on the 85% or greater reduction threshold. When adding twice-lifetime screening, 100% (71-100) of LMICs reached elimination for all three thresholds. In regions in which all countries can achieve cervical cancer elimination with girls-only vaccination, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102, depending on the threshold and region. Introducing twice-lifetime screening accelerated elimination by 11-31 years. Long-term vaccine protection was required for elimination. INTERPRETATION: Predictions were consistent across our three models and suggest that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. Screening with high uptake will expedite reductions and will be necessary to eliminate cervical cancer in countries with the highest burden. FUNDING: WHO, UNDP, UN Population Fund, UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre for Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies five new susceptibility loci for cutaneous malignant melanoma.

Thirteen common susceptibility loci have been reproducibly associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We report the results of an international 2-stage meta-analysis of CMM genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This meta-analysis combines 11 GWAS (5 previously unpublished) and a further three stage 2 data sets, totaling 15,990 CMM cases and 26,409 controls. Five loci not previously associated with CMM risk reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)), as did 2 previously reported but unreplicated loci and all 13 established loci. Newly associated SNPs fall within putative melanocyte regulatory elements, and bioinformatic and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data highlight candidate genes in the associated regions, including one involved in telomere biology.[Please see the Supplementary Note for acknowledgments.]This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.337