Errors and Improvements in the Use of Archived Meteorological Data for Chemical Transport Modeling: An Analysis Using GEOS-Chem V11-01 Driven by GEOS-5 Meteorology

Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using (exp 222)Rn(exp 210)Pb(exp 7)Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.250.3125 (25km) and 22.5 (200km) resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (25km) and c48 (200km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3h and remapped to 0.250.3125, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem (exp 222)Rn simulation at native 0.250.3125 resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20% relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.250.3125 to 22.5 induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting (exp 222)Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40% in surface air relative to the online c360 simulations and underestimated by up to 40% in the upper troposphere, while the tropospheric lifetimes of (exp 210)Pb and (exp 7)Be against aerosol deposition are affected by 510%. The lost vertical transport in the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem simulation can be partly restored by recomputing the convective mass fluxes at the appropriate resolution to replace the archived convective mass fluxes and by correcting for bias in the spatial averaging of boundary layer mixing depths

Deflection of mantle flow beneath subducting slabs and the origin of subslab anisotropy

Abstract Global compilations of subslab shear wave splitting parameters show a mix of trench-parallel and trench-perpendicular fast directions that often directly contradict predictions from two-dimensional models of slab-entrained flow. Here we show that subslab anisotropy is consistent with three-dimensional geodynamic models that feature the interaction between subducting slabs and regional mantle flow. Each model represents a specific region for which high-quality source-side shear wave splitting data are available. We compare the distribution of finite strain in the models with shear wave splitting observations, showing that both trench-parallel and trench-perpendicular fast directions can be explained by deflection of regional mantle flow around or beneath subducted slabs. Subslab maximum elongation directions calculated from our models depend on a combination of geometry factors (such as slab dip angle and maximum depth), mechanical parameters (such as decoupling between the slab and the subjacent mantle), and the orientation and magnitude of the regional mantle flow

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for adults with heart failure

Background Chronic heart failure (HF) is a growing global health challenge. People with HF experience substantial burden that includes low exercise tolerance, poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL), increased risk of mortality and hospital admission, and high healthcare costs. The previous (2014) Cochrane systematic review reported that exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) compared to no exercise control shows improvement in HRQoL and hospital admission among people with HF, as well as possible reduction in mortality over the longer term, and that these reductions appear to be consistent across patient and programme characteristics. Limitations noted by the authors of this previous Cochrane Review include the following: (1) most trials were undertaken in patients with HF with reduced (< 45%) ejection fraction (HFrEF), and women, older people, and those with preserved (≥ 45%) ejection fraction HF (HFpEF) were under-represented; and (2) most trials were undertaken in the hospital/centre-based setting. Objectives To determine the effects of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation on mortality, hospital admission, and health-related quality of life of people with heart failure. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, and three other databases on 29 January 2018. We also checked the bibliographies of systematic reviews and two trial registers. Selection criteria We included randomised controlled trials that compared exercise-based CR interventions with six months’ or longer follow-up versus a no exercise control that could include usual medical care. The study population comprised adults (> 18 years) with evidence of HF - either HFrEF or HFpEF. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened all identified references and rejected those that were clearly ineligible for inclusion in the review. We obtained full papers of potentially relevant trials. Two review authors independently extracted data from the included trials, assessed their risk of bias, and performed GRADE analyses. Main results We included 44 trials (5783 participants with HF) with a median of six months’ follow-up. For this latest update, we identified 11 new trials (N = 1040), in addition to the previously identified 33 trials. Although the evidence base includes predominantly patients with HFrEF with New York Heart Association classes II and III receiving centre-based exercise-based CR programmes, a growing body of studies include patients with HFpEF and are undertaken in a home-based setting. All included studies included a no formal exercise training intervention comparator. However, a wide range of comparators were seen across studies that included active intervention (i.e. education, psychological intervention) or usual medical care alone. The overall risk of bias of included trials was low or unclear, and we downgraded results using the GRADE tool for all but one outcome. Cardiac rehabilitation may make little or no difference in all-cause mortality over the short term (≤ one year of follow-up) (27 trials, 28 comparisons (2596 participants): intervention 67/1302 (5.1%) vs control 75/1294 (5.8%); risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 1.21; low-quality GRADE evidence) but may improve all-cause mortality in the long term (> 12 months follow up) (6 trials/comparisons (2845 participants): intervention 244/1418 (17.2%) vs control 280/1427 (19.6%) events): RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.02; high-quality evidence). Researchers provided no data on deaths due to HF. CR probably reduces overall hospital admissions in the short term (up to one year of follow-up) (21 trials, 21 comparisons (2182 participants): (intervention 180/1093 (16.5%) vs control 258/1089 (23.7%); RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.83; moderate-quality evidence, number needed to treat: 14) and may reduce HF-specific hospitalisation (14 trials, 15 comparisons (1114 participants): (intervention 40/562 (7.1%) vs control 61/552 (11.1%) RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.84; low-quality evidence, number needed to treat: 25). After CR, a clinically important improvement in shortterm disease-specific health-related quality of life may be evident (Minnesota Living With Heart Failure questionnaire - 17 trials, 18 comparisons (1995 participants): mean difference (MD) -7.11 points, 95% CI -10.49 to -3.73; low-quality evidence). Pooling across all studies, regardless of the HRQoL measure used, shows there may be clinically important improvement with exercise (26 trials, 29 comparisons (3833 participants); standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.60, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.39; I² = 87%; Chi² = 215.03; lowquality evidence). ExCR effects appeared to be consistent different models of ExCR delivery: centre vs. home-based, exercise dose, exercise only vs. comprehensive programmes, and aerobic training alone vs aerobic plus resistance programmes. Authors’ conclusions This updated Cochrane Review provides additional randomised evidence (11 trials) to support the conclusions of the previous version (2014) of this Cochane Review. Compared to no exercise control, CR appears to have no impact on mortality in the short term (< 12 months’ follow-up). Low- to moderate-quality evidence shows that CR probably reduces the risk of all-cause hospital admissions and may reduce HF-specific hospital admissions in the short term (up to 12 months). CR may confer a clinically important improvement in health-related quality of life, although we remain uncertain about this because the evidence is of low quality. Future ExCR trials need to continue to consider the recruitment of traditionally less represented HF patient groups including older, female, and HFpEF patients, and alternative CR delivery settings including home- and using technology-based programmes

A Robust Determination of the Time Delay in 0957+561A,B and a Measurement of the Global Value of Hubble's Constant

Photometric monitoring of the gravitational lens system 0957+561A,B in the g and r bands with the Apache Point Observatory (APO) 3.5 m telescope during 1996 shows a sharp g band event in the trailing (B) image light curve at the precise time predicted from the observation of an event during 1995 in the leading (A) image with a delay of 415 days. This success confirms the "short delay," and the lack of any feature at a delay near 540 days rejects the "long delay" for this system, resolving a long-standing controversy. A series of statistical analyses of our light curve data yield a best fit delay of 417 +/- 3 days (95% confidence interval). Recent improvements in the modeling of the lens system (consisting of a galaxy and cluster) allow us to derive a value of the global (at z = 0.36) value of Hubble's constant H_0 using Refsdal's method, a simple and direct distance determination based on securely understood physics and geometry. The result is H_0 = 63 +/- 12 km/s/Mpc (for Omega = 1) where this 95% confidence interval is dominated by remaining lens model uncertainties.Comment: accepted by ApJ, AASTeX 4.0 preprint, 4 PostScript figure

Contribute a Verse

In response to the Affordable Learning Georgia initiative, Dr. Tanya Bennett and ten colleagues from the University of North Georgia have written Contribute a Verse: A Guide to First Year Composition. This peer reviewed textbook, published by the University of North Georgia Press, combines a composition rhetoric manual with grammar and documentation instruction and resources, components that can be flexibly arranged to fit instructors’ classroom plans. It includes a standard rhetoric instruction, information and practice for Standard English Grammar, and guidelines for the four most common documentation styles. Its reader compiles essays compiled for English 1101, focused for thematic discussion and selected for use in rhetorical analysis. The textbook also includes a glossary of pertinent terms and ancillary instructor resources. Its contents include Reading Critically/Engaging the Material; Rhetorical Situations; Effective Argument; Introductions and Conclusions; Logic of Assertion, Evidence, and Interpretation; Documentation; Visual Rhetoric; Multi-Modality; Inter-disciplinary Writing; and Grammar. A print version of this book is available for $29.99 Contact the University of North Georgia Press for details and ordering information. [email protected] | 706-864-1556https://digitalcommons.northgeorgia.edu/books/1002/thumbnail.jp

Introduction effort, climate matching and species traits as predictors of global establishment success in non-native reptiles

Non-native reptiles are often detrimental to native communities and ecosystems and can be extremely difficult to manage once established. Thus, there is considerable interest in predicting the likelihood of establishment of nonnative reptiles. We assessed three hypotheses describing possible factors contributing to the successful establishment of introduced reptiles in an effort to better identify potential invaders

Eddy correlation measurements of oxygen fluxes in permeable sediments exposed to varying current flow and light

Author Posting. © Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Limnology and Oceanography 58 (2013): 1329–1343, doi:10.4319/lo.2013.58.4.1329.Based on noninvasive eddy correlation measurements at a marine and a freshwater site, this study documents the control that current flow and light have on sediment–water oxygen fluxes in permeable sediments. The marine sediment was exposed to tidal-driven current and light, and the oxygen flux varied from night to day between −29 and 78 mmol m−2 d−1. A fitting model, assuming a linear increase in oxygen respiration with current flow, and a photosynthesis–irradiance curve for light-controlled production reproduced measured fluxes well (R2 = 0.992) and revealed a 4-fold increase in oxygen uptake when current velocity increased from ∼ 0 to 20 cm s−1. Application of the model to a week-long measured record of current velocity and light showed that net ecosystem metabolism varied substantially among days, between −27 and 31 mmol m−2 d−1, due to variations in light and current flow. This variation is likely typical of many shallow-water systems and highlights the need for long-term flux integrations to determine system metabolism accurately. At the freshwater river site, the sediment–water oxygen flux ranged from −360 to 137 mmol m−2 d−1. A direct comparison during nighttime with concurrent benthic chamber incubations revealed a 4.1 times larger eddy flux than that obtained with chambers. The current velocity during this comparison was 31 cm s−1, and the large discrepancy was likely caused by poor imitation by the chambers of the natural pore-water flushing at this high current velocity. These results emphasize the need for more noninvasive oxygen flux measurements in permeable sediments to accurately assess their role in local and global carbon budgets.Support for this study was provided by the following National Science Foundation grants: OCE-0420575, OCE- 0536431, and OCE-1061364

Intracellular interferons in fish : a unique means to combat viral infection

Peer reviewedPublisher PD