Combining role-play with interactive simulation to motivate informed climate action: Evidence from the World Climate simulation

Climate change communication efforts grounded in the information deficit model have largely failed to close the gap between scientific and public understanding of the risks posed by climate change. In response, simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn for themselves about this complex and politically charged topic. Here we assess the impact of a widely-used simulation, World Climate, which combines a socially and emotionally engaging role-play with interactive exploration of climate change science through the C-ROADS climate simulation model. Participants take on the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement that meets international climate goals. Their decisions are entered into C-ROADS, which provides immediate feedback about expected global climate impacts, enabling them to learn about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations. We assess the impact of World Climate by analyzing pre- and post-survey results from >2,000 participants in 39 sessions in eight nations. We find statistically significant gains in three areas: (i) knowledge of climate change causes, dynamics and impacts; (ii) affective engagement including greater feelings of urgency and hope; and (iii) a desire to learn and do more about climate change. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in urgency were associated with gains in participants’ desire to learn more and intent to act, while gains in climate knowledge were not. Gains were just as strong among American participants who oppose government regulation of free markets–a political ideology that has been linked to climate change denial in the US–suggesting the simulation’s potential to reach across political divides. The results indicate that World Climate offers a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant DUE-124558)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant ICEER-1701062

'Behavioural System Dynamics': a very tentative and slightly sceptical map of the territory

In this piece, I consider the paper by Stouten et al. (2017) in terms of behavioural science. I first consider what, in broad terms, a ‘behavioural turn’ might offer System Dynamics (SD) and then explore in more detail the scope of the territory within which a behavioural approach to SD might be useful

Understanding the dynamics of alliance capabilities

Strategic alliances have become important strategic options for firms to achieve competitive advantage. Yet, there are many examples of alliance failures. Scholars have studied this phenomenon and identified many reasons for alliance failure, including lack of trust between the partnering firms. Paradoxically, the concept of trust is still not fully understood, specifically how and under what conditions trust comes to break down within the broader process of alliance building. We synthesize a process model that describes the “alliance capability”, including trust, openness, partner contributions, and relational rents. We then translate this framework into a formal simulation model and analyze it thoroughly. In analyzing trust dynamics we identify and explore a tipping boundary, separating a regime of alliance failures and successes. We apply our core findings to openness strategies – decisions about how much knowledge to share with partners. Our analyses reveal that strategies informed by a static mental model of trust, contributions, and openness, under undervalue openness. Further, too little openness risks early failure due to the being trapped in a vicious cycle of trust depletion

"Boom without limits?" – An analysis of the Stuttgart real estate market

Real estate markets are known to fluctuate. The real estate market in Stuttgart, Germany, has been booming for more than a decade: square-meter price hit top levels and real estate agents claim that market prices will continue to increase. In this paper, we test this market understanding by developing and analyzing a system dynamics model that depicts the Stuttgart real estate market. Simulating the model explains oscillating behavior arising from significant time delays and endogenous feedback structures – and not necessarily oscillating interest rates, as market experts assume. Scenarios provide insights into the system's behavior reacting to changes exogenous to the model. The first scenario tests the market development under increasing interest rates. The other scenario deals with possible effects on the real estate market if the regional automotive economy suffers from intense competition with new market players entering with alternative fuel vehicles and new technologies. With a policy run we test market structure changes to eliminate cyclical effects. The paper confirms that the business cycle in the Stuttgart real estate market arises from within the system's underlying structure, thus emphasizing the importance of understanding feedback structures

Wasted paradise – imagining the Maldives without the garbage island of Thilafushi : Version 1.2

To address the high level of waste production in the Maldives, the local government decided to transform the coral island of Thilafushi into an immense waste dumb in 1992. Meanwhile, each day, 330 tons of waste is ferried to Thilafushi. The policy had the positive consequence of relieving the garbage burden in Malé, the main island, and surrounding tourist atolls. However, it can also lead to serious environmental and economic damage in the long range. First, the garbage is in visual range of one of the most prominent tourist destinations. Second, if the wind blows a certain way, unfiltered fumes from burning waste travels to tourist atolls. Third, water quality can erode as hazardous waste from batteries and other toxic waste is floating in the ocean. Over time, these effects can accumulate to significantly hamper the number of tourists that travel to the Maldives – one of the state’s main sources of financial income. In our paper, we lay out the situation in more detail and translate it into a simulation model. We test different policies to propose the Maldives government how to better solve the waste problem

Bathtub dynamics revisited : exploring the engineering domain

SF-failure, the inability of people to correctly determine the behavior of simple stock and flow structures is subject of a long research stream. Reasons for SF-failure can be attributed to different reasons, one of them being lacking domain specific experience, thus familiarity with the problem context. In this article we present a continuation of an experiment to examine the role of educational background in SF-performance. We base the question set on the Bathtub Dynamics tasks introduced by Booth Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and vary the cover stories. In this paper we describe how we developed and tested a new cover story for the engineering domain and implemented the recommendations from a prior study. We test three sets of questions with engineering students which enables us to compare the results to a previous study in which we tested the questions with business students. Results mainly support our hypothesis that context familiarity increases SF-performance. With our findings we further develop the methodology of the research on SF-failure

Dynamische Balanced Scorecard eines europäischen Automobilherstellers : Praxisbeispiel

Die Entwicklung dynamischer Balanced Scorecards in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Kunden zählt zum Beratungsgebiet der PA Consulting Group. Das Anwendungsbeispiel beschreibt eine dynamische Balanced Scorecard eines europäischen Automobilherstellers. Dieser verfolgt von jeher das Ziel, internationale Standards bei Technologie, Stil, Design und Leistung zu setzen. Das Unternehmen sah sich allerdings einem zunehmenden asiatischen Wettbeweb ausgesetzt, dem es mit neu entwickelten Fahrzeugen begegnen wollte. Um diese vor der Konkurrenz in den Markt einzuführen, sollten die Entwicklungsprozesse beträchtlich gestrafft werden. Zugleich sollten die Fahrzeuge zu attraktiven Preisen mit wettbewerbsfähiger und qualitativ hochwertier Ausstattung angeboten und die unternehmensweiten Profitabilitätsziele erreicht werden

Bathtub dynamics revisited : does educational background matter?

Prior studies ascribed people’s poor performance in dealing with basic systems concepts to different causes. While results indicate that, among other things, domain specific experience and familiarity with the problem context play a role in this stock-flow-(SF-)performance, this has not yet been fully clarified. In this article, we present an experiment that examines the role of educational background in SF-performance. We hypothesize that SF-performance increases when the problem context is embedded in the problem solver’s knowledge domain, indicated by educational background. Using the square wave pattern and the sawtooth pattern tasks from the initial study by Booth Sweeney and Sterman (2000), we design two additional cover stories for the former, the Vehicle story from the engineering domain and the Application story from the business domain, next to the original Bathtub story. We then test the three sets of questions on business students. Results mainly support our hypothesis. Interestingly, participants even do better on a more complex behavioral pattern from their knowledge domain than on a simpler pattern from more distant domains. Although these findings have to be confirmed by further studies, they contribute both to the methodology of future surveys and the context familiarity discussion

Reflections on developing a simulation model on sustainable and healthy diets for decision makers : comment on the paper by Kopainsky

Kopainsky et al., (2020) examines intended and unintended transition effects of the Swiss food system on the system's structure and the environment. Kopainsky et al.'s research refers to studies on and is embedded in research streams in global health (Jamison et al., 2013) and sustainable food systems (Willett et al., 2019). It also addresses many of Steffen et al.'s (2015) planetary boundaries, the United Nations' (2015) sustainability goals (SDGs), and potentially could address how they are interrelated, following Randers et al. (2019). It is furthermore embedded in research on natural and human systems, particularly in the intertwined business, supply and demand, governance, ecological and health feedback loops (Swinburn et al., 2019). This feedback view enhances understanding and assessment of drivers towards improving human and ecological health and mitigating climate change