Bayesian Persuasion

When is it possible for one person to persuade another to change her action? We consider a symmetric information model where a sender chooses a signal to reveal to a receiver, who then takes a noncontractible action that affects the welfare of both players. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a signal that strictly benefits the sender. We characterize sender-optimal signals. We examine comparative statics with respect to the alignment of the sender's and the receiver's preferences. Finally, we apply our results to persuasion by litigators, lobbyists, and salespeople. (JEL D72, D82, D83, K40, M31)

Labor Supply of Politicians

We examine the labor supply of politicians using data on Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). We exploit the introduction of a law that equalized MEPs' salaries, which had previously differed by as much as a factor of ten. Doubling an MEP's salary increases the probability of running for reelection by 23 percentage points and increases the logarithm of the number of parties that field a candidate by 29 percent of a standard deviation. A salary increase has no discernible impact on absenteeism or shirking from legislative sessions; in contrast, non-pecuniary motives, proxied by home-country corruption, substantially impact the intensive margin of labor supply. Finally, an increase in salary lowers the quality of elected MEPs, measured by the selectivity of their undergraduate institutions.

Bayesian Persuasion

When is it possible for one person to persuade another to change her action? We take a mechanism design approach to this question. Taking preferences and initial beliefs as given, we introduce the notion of a persuasion mechanism: a game between Sender and Receiver defined by an information structure and a message technology. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a persuasion mechanism that strictly benefits Sender. We characterize the optimal mechanism. Finally, we analyze several examples that illustrate the applicability of our results.

Competition in Persuasion

Does competition among persuaders increase the extent of information revealed? We study ex ante symmetric information games where a number of senders choose what information to gather and communicate to a receiver, who takes a non-contractible action that affects the welfare of all players. We characterize the information revealed in pure-strategy equilibria. We consider three ways of increasing competition among senders: (i) moving from collusive to non-cooperative play, (ii) introducing additional senders, and (iii) decreasing the alignment of senders' preferences. For each of these notions, we establish that increasing competition cannot decrease the amount of information revealed, and will in a certain sense tend to increase it.

Information and Subsidies: Complements or Substitutes?

Does providing information about a product affect the impact of price subsidies on purchases of new or unfamiliar products? This question is particularly relevant for the introduction of health products in developing countries where consumers may be uncertain about product quality and price subsidies are common policy instruments. Through a field experiment selling an unfamiliar health product in Zambia, we find that providing precise information about product specifications significantly increases the impact of the price subsidy on take-up. Taken alone, the information manipulation has no significant impact on demand while the price subsidy substantially increases demand. However, evaluation of either intervention in isolation fails to capture the significant complementarity between the two

Gender Differences in Mate Selection: Evidence from a Speed Dating Experiment

We study dating behavior using data from a Speed Dating experiment where we generate random matching of subjects and create random variation in the number of potential partners. Our design allows us to directly observe individual decisions rather than just final matches. Women put greater weight on the intelligence and the race of partner, while men respond more to physical attractiveness. Moreover, men do not value women's intelligence or ambition when it exceeds their own. Also, we find that women exhibit a preference for men who grew up in affluent neighborhoods. Finally, male selectivity is invariant to group size, while female selectivity is strongly increasing in group size

Uticaj ekološkog zagađenja izazvanog delovanjem NATO alijanse na prostorima Srbije na fiziološki status proizvoda tipa 'Radler'

Beer-based drinks, 'Radler' type products in particular, arouse interest for a number of reasons. These newly produced drinks were obtained by mixing beer and soft drinks and are intended for a larger number of target groups than their each single component. Also, they combine advantages of both components in physiological respect. They have lower alcohol content than beer, are more palatable and refreshing, can be consumed in larger amounts, retaining beneficial and physiological value of beer. As NATO air strikes resulted in heavy environmental contamination, the question is raised about the safety of these drinks and the level of toxic elements in them as well about the level of micro- and macro-elements having beneficial effects on the body. The paper gives the analysis results for 35 samples of different 'Radler' Beer-based products manufactured by domestic producers. The level of elements belonging to three distinct groups of heavy metals and that of the most important micro- and macro-elements, of therapeutic and physiological value for the body, were determined. The obtained values were compares with available data on similar products in the world, with values obtained for domestic products in the period preceding environmental contamination, and, in the case of biologically important elements, with their contents in one of oligomineral-vitamin products.Pića na bazi piva, a pogotovo proizvodi tipa 'Radler' interesantni su sa vise aspekata. Predstavljaju jedan nov proizvod dobijen kombinacijom piva i gaziranih bezalkoholnih pica namenjen većem broju ciljnih grupa od pojedinačnih komponenata od kojih su proizvedeni, a ujedno sa fiziološkog aspekta objedinjuju prednosti svakog od njih. Sadrže niži sadržaj alkohola od piva, pitkija su i vise osvežavaju, mogu se piti u većim količinama, a istovremeno u određenoj meri zadržavaju blagotvorna i fiziološki vrlo povoljna svojstva piva. Upravo iz tog razloga postavlja se pitanje njihove zdravstvene ispravnosti i prisustva pojedinih toksičnih elemenata kao posledica ekološkog zagađenja uzrokovanog vazdušnim dejstvima NATO alijanse, odnosno mikro- i makro elemenata čiji sadržaj ima povoljno delovanje na organizam. U radu su prikazani rezultati analize 35 uzoraka različitih 'Radler' proizvoda dobijenih na bazi piva različitih domaćih proizvođača. Određen je sadržaj elemenata koji spadaju u tri karakteristične grupe teških metala kao i najznačajnijih mikro- i makroelemenata koji imaju terapeutski i fiziološki značaj za organizam. Rezultati analize 35 uzoraka proizvoda tipa 'Radler' proizvedenih nakon završetka ratnih dejstava, pokazuju da u pogledu ni jednog toksičnog elementa nije došlo do porasta sadržaja i da su nađene vrednosti u granicama, ili čak ispod vrednosti karakterističnih za proizvode ove vrste na domaćem tržištu. Vrednosti su znatno ispod zakonski regulisanih maksimuma i u granicama koje se sreću i u srodnim proizvodima u svetu. Sa druge strane, interesantni su podaci koji se odnose na prisustvo biogenih elemenata koji su uzrok povoljnog delovanja piva na organizam. Njihov sadržaj u proizvodima tipa 'Radler' je niži u odnosu na pivo i ovi proizvodi se ne mogu tretirati kao njihov izvor. Međutim, poređenje sa oligomineralnim vitaminskim preparatom 'Oligovitom' (ICN) ukazuje na neke interesantne činjenice. Unošenjem 1 l ovih proizvoda unosi se 10% Mg, 10-60% Mn, 30% Cu, 50% Zn i 50% Co koja se inače unosi pilulom 'Oligovita' kao preporučena dnevna dopuna svakodnevne ishrane dece i odraslih

Design of the bridge over the Jablanica lake in the Čelebići-Lisičići area

Prikazana su varijantna rješenja mosta preko Jablaničkog jezera na lokaciji Čelebići-Lisičići. Naznačeni su osnovni parametri za projektiranje na temelju kojih su napravljene varijante idejnih projekta za dvije vrste mostovskih konstrukcija: gredne i ovješene. Detaljnije su opisana rješenja gredne varijante sa spregnutom konstrukcijom s više raspona i varijante ovješenog mosta sa dva pilona i spregnutom rasponskom konstrukcijom. Obrazložena je odluka o prihvaćanju gredne varijante.Alternative solutions for the bridge over the Jablanica lake in the Čelebići-Lisičići area are presented. Principal design parameters that served as basis for preparation of preliminary design alternatives for two types of bridge structures, girder structure and cable-stayed structure, are given. The girder alternative with composite structure and several spans, and the cable-stayed bridge alternative with two pylons and a composite superstructure, are presented in more detail. Reasons are given for the final selection of the girder alternative

Information Unraveling Revisited: Disclosure of Horizontal Attributes

This paper analyzes in a spatial framework how much information a seller discloses about the variety he sells when he faces a buyer with a privately known taste for variety. I identify an equilibrium in which, for each possible variety, the seller's optimal strategy consists of either fully disclosing the variety or disclosing how far it is from the buyer's expected taste. The set of varieties the seller fully discloses monotonically expands as the buyer's taste for variety becomes stronger. I show that this is the unique undefeated equilibrium. From a policy perspective, mandating full disclosure is socially harmful