Asymmetries in cloud microphysical properties ascribed to sea ice leads via water vapour transport in the central Arctic

To investigate the influence of sea ice openings like leads on wintertime Arctic clouds, the air mass transport is exploited as a heat and humidity feeding mechanism which can modify Arctic cloud properties. Cloud microphysical properties in the central Arctic are analysed as a function of sea ice conditions during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in 2019–2020. The Cloudnet classification algorithm is used to characterize the clouds based on remote sensing observations and the atmospheric thermodynamic state from the observatory on board the research vessel (RV) Polarstern. To link the sea ice conditions around the observational site with the cloud observations, the water vapour transport (WVT) being conveyed towards RV Polarstern has been utilized as a mechanism to associate upwind sea ice conditions with the measured cloud properties. This novel methodology is used to classify the observed clouds as coupled or decoupled to the WVT based on the location of the maximum vertical gradient of WVT height relative to the cloud-driven mixing layer. Only a conical sub-sector of sea ice concentration (SIC) and the lead fraction (LF) centred on the RV Polarstern location and extending up to 50 km in radius and with an azimuth angle governed by the time-dependent wind direction measured at the maximum WVT is related to the observed clouds. We found significant asymmetries for cases when the clouds are coupled or decoupled to the WVT and selected by LF regimes. Liquid water path of low-level clouds is found to increase as a function of LF, while the ice water path does so only for deep precipitating systems. Clouds coupled to WVT are found to generally have a lower cloud base and larger thickness than decoupled clouds. Thermodynamically, for coupled cases the cloud-top temperature is warmer and accompanied by a temperature inversion at the cloud top, whereas the decoupled cases are found to be closely compliant with the moist adiabatic temperature lapse rate. The ice water fraction within the cloud layer has been found to present a noticeable asymmetry when comparing coupled versus decoupled cases. This novel approach of coupling sea ice to cloud properties via the WVT mechanism unfolds a new tool to study Arctic surface–atmosphere processes. With this formulation, long-term observations can be analysed to enforce the statistical significance of the asymmetries. Furthermore, our results serve as an opportunity to better understand the dynamic linkage between clouds and sea ice and to evaluate its representation in numerical climate models for the Arctic system.</p

Using artificial neural networks to predict riming from Doppler cloud radar observations

Riming, i.e., the accretion and freezing of super-cooled liquid water (SLW) on ice particles in mixed-phase clouds, is an important pathway for precipitation formation. Detecting and quantifying riming using ground-based cloud radar observations is of great interest; however, approaches based on measurements of the mean Doppler velocity (MDV) are unfeasible in convective and orographically influenced cloud systems. Here, we show how artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to predict riming using ground-based, zenith-pointing cloud radar variables as input features. ANNs are a versatile means to extract relations from labeled data sets, which contain input features along with the expected target values. Training data are extracted from a data set acquired during winter 2014 in Finland, containing both Ka-and W-band cloud radar and in situ observations of snow-fall by a Precipitation Imaging Package from which the rime mass fraction (FRPIP) is retrieved. ANNs are trained separately either on the Ka-band radar or the W-band radar data set to predict the rime fraction FRANN. We focus on two configurations of input variables. ANN 1 uses the equivalent radar reflectivity factor (Ze), MDV, the width from left to right edge of the spectrum above the noise floor (spectrum edge width - SEW), and the skewness as input features. ANN 2 only uses Ze, SEW, and skewness. The application of these two ANN configurations to case studies from different data sets demonstrates that both are able to predict strong riming (FRANN > 0.7) and yield low values (FRANNPeer reviewe

Identifying cloud droplets beyond lidar attenuation from vertically pointing cloud radar observations using artificial neural networks

In mixed-phase clouds, the variable mass ratio between liquid water and ice as well as the spatial distribution within the cloud plays an important role in cloud lifetime, precipitation processes, and the radiation budget. Data sets of vertically pointing Doppler cloud radars and lidars provide insights into cloud properties at high temporal and spatial resolution. Cloud radars are able to penetrate multiple liquid layers and can potentially be used to expand the identification of cloud phase to the entire vertical column beyond the lidar signal attenuation height, by exploiting morphological features in cloud radar Doppler spectra that relate to the existence of supercooled liquid. We present VOODOO (reVealing supercOOled liquiD beyOnd lidar attenuatiOn), a retrieval based on deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) mapping radar Doppler spectra to the probability of the presence of cloud droplets (CD). The training of the CNN was realized using the Cloudnet processing suite as supervisor. Once trained, VOODOO yields the probability for CD directly at Cloudnet grid resolution. Long-term predictions of 18 months in total from two mid-latitudinal locations, i.e., Punta Arenas, Chile (53.1 S, 70.9 W), in the Southern Hemisphere and Leipzig, Germany (51.3 N, 12.4 E), in the Northern Hemisphere, are evaluated. Temporal and spatial agreement in cloud-droplet-bearing pixels is found for the Cloudnet classification to the VOODOO prediction. Two suitable case studies were selected, where stratiform, multi-layer, and deep mixed-phase clouds were observed. Performance analysis of VOODOO via classification-evaluating metrics reveals precision > 0.7, recall ≈ 0.7, and accuracy ≈ 0.8. Additionally, independent measurements of liquid water path (LWP) retrieved by a collocated microwave radiometer (MWR) are correlated to the adiabatic LWP, which is estimated using the temporal and spatial locations of cloud droplets from VOODOO and Cloudnet in connection with a cloud parcel model. This comparison resulted in stronger correlation for VOODOO (≈ 0.45) compared to Cloudnet (≈ 0.22) and indicates the availability of VOODOO to identify CD beyond lidar attenuation. Furthermore, the long-term statistics for 18 months of observations are presented, analyzing the performance as a function of MWR-LWP and confirming VOODOO's ability to identify cloud droplets reliably for clouds with LWP > 100 g m-2. The influence of turbulence on the predictive performance of VOODOO was also analyzed and found to be minor. A synergy of the novel approach VOODOO and Cloudnet would complement each other perfectly and is planned to be incorporated into the Cloudnet algorithm chain in the near future

Virga-Sniffer

Several updates and optimizations from user feedback and AMT open discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2022-252 What's Changed Output extension by @jonas-witthuhn in https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/pull/10 fix for binder by @jonas-witthuhn in https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/pull/11 LCL handling and optimization by @jonas-witthuhn in https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/pull/12 colors and names by @jonas-witthuhn in https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/pull/13 cbh processing and empty scenes by @jonas-witthuhn in https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/pull/14 cbh_connect2top and versiontags by @jonas-witthuhn in https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/pull/15 Full Changelog: https://github.com/remsens-lim/virga_sniffer/compare/v0.3.4...v1.0.

Analysing wind power ramp events and improving very short‐term wind power predictions by including wind speed observations

Abstract Though wind power predictions have been consistently improved in the last decade, persistent reasons for remaining uncertainties are sudden large changes in wind speed, so‐called ramps. Here, we analyse the occurrence of ramp events in a wind farm in Eastern Germany and the performance of a wind power prediction tool in forecasting these events for forecasting horizons of 15 and 30 min. Results on the seasonality of ramp events and their diurnal cycle are presented for multiple ramp definition thresholds. Ramps were found to be most frequent in March and April and least frequent in November and December. For the analysis, the wind power prediction tool is fed by different wind velocity forecast products, for example, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and measurement data. It is shown that including observational wind speed data for very short‐term wind power forecasts improves the performance of the power prediction tool compared to the NWP reference, both in terms of ramp detection and in decreasing the mean absolute error between predicted and generated wind power. This improvement is enhanced during ramp events, highlighting the importance of wind observations for very short‐term wind power prediction

Impact of cross-talk on reflectivity and Doppler measurements for the WIVERN polarization diversity doppler radar

The Wind Velocity Radar Nephoscope (WIVERN) mission, one of the four ESA Earth Explorer 11 candidate missions, aims at globally observing, for the first time, simultaneously vertical profiles of reflectivities and line-of-sight (LOS) winds in cloudy and precipitating regions. WIVERN adopts a dual-polarization Doppler radar to overcome the short decorrelation time between successive radar pulses transmitted from low Earth-orbiting satellites with finite beamwidth antennas. WIVERN transmits a single polarization state at a time (H or V), receives in both the polarization states, and uses the polarization diversity pulse pair (PDPP) technique to estimate the Doppler velocity. The weaker cross-polar signals can sometimes interfere with the copolar ones, causing ghost signals in the measurements that hinder the system’s overall performance. In addition, with the envisaged radar trigger mode, parameters such as linear depolarization ratio (LDR) and differential reflectivity (ZDR) cannot be directly measured because of the nearly simultaneous transmission of H and V pulses. To overcome these challenges, this article presents a novel technique based on the optimal estimation (OE) algorithm for retrieving LDR, ZDR, and copolar reflectivity for radars operated in the PDPP mode. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a realistic climatology of profiles simulated from CloudSat data. Results demonstrate that copolar reflectivity can be accurately retrieved in regions with a good signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and in the absence of simultaneous crosstalk interference in both the channels (which occurs very rarely). The LDR retrieval, on the other hand, is typically driven by the a priori with a substantial impact of measurements only for the surface returns. The impact of crosstalk is also assessed on the reduction of precise Doppler measurements. Findings confirm that a selection of the separation between the two polarization diversity pulses (THV) of 20 µs achieves a good balance between the large errors originated by the strong dependence on the Doppler phase noise at small THVs and those caused by the drop in correlation and unambiguous Nyquist velocity at large THV

Overview: fusion of radar polarimetry and numerical atmospheric modelling towards an improved understanding of cloud and precipitation processes

Cloud and precipitation processes are still a main source of uncertainties in numerical weather prediction and climate change projections. The Priority Programme Polarimetric Radar Observations meet Atmospheric Modelling (PROM), funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG), is guided by the hypothesis that many uncertainties relate to the lack of observations suitable to challenge the representation of cloud and precipitation processes in atmospheric models. Such observations can, however, at present be provided by the recently installed dual-polarization C-band weather radar network of the German national meteorological service in synergy with cloud radars and other instruments at German supersites and similar national networks increasingly available worldwide. While polarimetric radars potentially provide valuable in-cloud information on hydrometeor type, quantity, and microphysical cloud and precipitation processes, and atmospheric models employ increasingly complex microphysical modules, considerable knowledge gaps still exist in the interpretation of the observations and in the optimal microphysics model process formulations. PROM is a coordinated interdisciplinary effort to increase the use of polarimetric radar observations in data assimilation, which requires a thorough evaluation and improvement of parameterizations of moist processes in atmospheric models. As an overview article of the inter-journal special issue Fusion of radar polarimetry and numerical atmospheric modelling towards an improved understanding of cloud and precipitation processes, this article outlines the knowledge achieved in PROM during the past 2 years and gives perspectives for the next 4 years

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

Abstract. The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiaġvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation. </jats:p