Modeling the Effect of Stress and Stigma on the Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis Infection

In this paper a continuous time deterministic model with health education campaign and treatment strategy is formulated to assess the effect of stress and stigma on the transmission and control of Tuberculosis (TB). The effective reproduction number is obtained and used to investigate the impact of health education campaign and treatment strategies. The effective reproduction numbers for health education campaign and treatment considered separately were found not to be effective as compared to a combination of both strategies. Numerical simulation results show that TB can be reduced or eliminated from the community when as treatment is applied. The disease prevalence and incidence are high when stigma is high and decline gradually when the combination of both treatment and health campaign are administered. We recommend that health education campaign to reduce stress among individuals and stigma for infectious individuals should be accompanied by treatment of active TB individuals for improved reduction of TB disease

Mathematical model to study the impact of anthropogenic activities on forest biomass and forest-dependent wildlife population

A project report submitted in International Journal of Dynamics and Control , Volume OnlineFirst – Jul 21, 2023This paper proposes and analyses a nonlinear mathematical model to study the impact of anthropogenic activities on forest biomass and forest-dependent wildlife populations using a system of differential equations. It is assumed that the growth of forest biomass, forest-dependent wildlife populations, and the human population follow logistic equations. The effect of forest biomass depletion on the survival of forest-dependent wildlife populations is investigated by introducing a function that denotes the dependence on forest biomass. The system’s behaviour near all ecologically acceptable equilibria is studied, and to confirm the analytical conclusions, a numerical simulation is performed. The model analysis shows that as forest biomass declines due to an increase in human population and its associated activities, the population of wildlife species also declines, and if no measures are taken, both forest biomass and the wildlife population may become extinct

Conservation of forest biomass and forest–dependent wildlife population: Uncertainty quantification of the model parameters

This research article was published by Heliyon 9 (2023)The ecosystem is confronted with numerous challenges as a consequence of the escalating human population and its corresponding activities. Among these challenges lies the degradation of forest biomass, which directly contributes to a reduction in forested areas and poses a significant threat to the survival of wildlife species through the intensification of intraspecific competition. In this paper, a non–linear mathematical model to study the conservation of forest and wildlife species that are reliant on forest ecosystem within the framework of human population dynamics and its related activities is developed and analysed. The study assessed the impacts of economic measures in the form of incentives on reducing population pressure on forest resources as well as the potential benefits of technological efforts to accelerate the rate of reforestation. Qualitative and quantitative analyses reveals that economic and technological factors have the potential to contribute to resource conservation efforts. However, these efforts can only be used to a limited extent, and contrary to that, the system will be destabilised. Sensitivity analysis identified the parameters pertaining to human population, human activities, economic measures, and technological efforts as the most influential factors in the mode

Mass transfer approach and the designing of horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetland systems treating waste stabilisation pond effluent

This research article was published in Water Science and Technology Journal, Volume 78, Issue 12, 2018.Pilot-scale constructed wetlands (CWs) that allowed wastewater to flow with high interstitial velocities in a controlled environment were used to evaluate the possibility of using mass transfer approach to design horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands (HSSF-CWs) treating waste stabilisation ponds (WSPs) effluent. Since CW design considers temperature which is irrelevant in tropics, mass transfer approach could improve the design. HSSF-CWs were operated in batch recycle mode as continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR) at different interstitial velocities. The overall removal rate constants of chemical oxygen demand (COD) at various interstitial velocities were evaluated in mesocosms that received pretreated domestic wastewater. The mean overall removal rate constants were 0.43, 0.69, 0.74 and 0.73 d−1 corresponding to interstitial velocities of 15.43, 36, 56.57 and 72 md−1, respectively. Results showed that the interstitial velocities up to 36 md−1 represented a range where mass transfer effect was significant and, above it, insignificant to the COD removal process. Since WSPs effluent has high flow rates and low organic load, it is possible to induce high interstitial velocities in a HSSF-CW treating this effluent, without clogging and overflow. The performance of these HSSF for tertiary treatment in tropical areas could be improved by considering flow velocity when designing

Modeling and analysis of taeniasis and cysticercosis transmission dynamics in humans, pigs and cattle

This research article published by Springer Nature, 2021Taeniasis and cysticercosis pose a significant challenge to food safety and public health. Cysticercosis reduces the market value for pigs and cattle by making pork and beef unsafe for consumption. In this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans, pigs and cattle is formulated and analyzed. The analysis shows that both the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE) exist. To study the dynamics of the diseases, we derived the basic reproduction number R0 by next generation matrix method. When R0 1 the EE is globally asymptotically stable. The normalized forward sensitivity index was used to determine sensitive parameters to the diseases. Humans’ recruitment rate, probability of humans’ infection with taeniasis and the defecation rate of taenia eggs by humans with taeniasis are the most positive sensitive parameters to diseases’ transmission whereas the human natural death rate is the most negative sensitive parameter. However, it is biologically unethical and not practical to increase human natural mortality rate for disease control. In this case, other parameters with negative sensitivity indices such as death rate of taenia eggs and proportions of unconsumed infected beef and pork can be considered for disease control. Generally, to control the diseases, more efforts should be made directed to reducing the number of humans who have taeniasis and defecate in the open environment. Also meat inspection and indoor keeping of cattle and pigs should be emphasized

Optimal strategies for controlling riverine tsetse flies using targets: a modelling study

Background: Tsetse flies occur in much of sub-Saharan Africa where they transmit the trypanosomes that cause the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock. One of the most economical and effective methods of tsetse control is the use of insecticide-treated screens, called targets, that simulate hosts. Targets have been ~1m2, but recently it was shown that those tsetse that occupy riverine situations, and which are the main vectors of sleeping sickness, respond well to targets only ~0.06m2. The cheapness of these tiny targets suggests the need to reconsider what intensity and duration of target deployments comprise the most cost-effective strategy in various riverine habitats. Methodology/Principal Findings: A deterministic model, written in Excel spreadsheets and managed by Visual Basic for Applications, simulated the births, deaths and movement of tsetse confined to a strip of riverine vegetation composed of segments of habitat in which the tsetse population was either selfsustaining, or not sustainable unless supplemented by immigrants. Results suggested that in many situations the use of tiny targets at high density for just a few months per year would be the most cost-effective strategy for rapidly reducing tsetse densities by the ~90% expected to have a great impact on the incidence of sleeping sickness. Local elimination of tsetse becomes feasible when targets are deployed in isolated situations, or where the only invasion occurs from populations that are not self-sustaining. Conclusion/Significance: Seasonal use of tiny targets deserves field trials. The ability to recognise habitat that contains tsetse populations which are not self-sustaining could improve the planning of all methods of tsetse control, against any species, in riverine, savannah or forest situations. Criteria to assist such recognition are suggested

Modeling the Control of Trypanosomiasis Using Trypanocides or Insecticide-Treated Livestock

In Uganda, cattle are an important reservoir for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, the causative agent of Rhodesian sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis), transmitted by tsetse flies Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, which feed on cattle, humans, and wild vertebrates, particularly monitor lizards. Trypanosomiasis can be controlled by treating livestock with trypanocides or insecticide – killing parasites or vectors, respectively. Mathematical modeling of trypanosomiasis was used to compare the impact of drug- and insecticide-based interventions on R0 with varying densities of cattle, humans and wild hosts. Intervention impact changes with the number of cattle treated and the proportion of bloodmeals tsetse take from cattle. R0 was always reduced more by treating cattle with insecticide rather than trypanocides. In the absence of wild hosts, the model suggests that control of sleeping sickness (R0<1) could be achieved by treating ∼65% of cattle with trypanocides or ∼20% with insecticide. Required coverage increases as wild mammals provide increasing proportion of tsetse bloodmeals: if 60% of non-human bloodmeals are from wild hosts then all cattle have to be treated with insecticide. Conversely, it is reduced if lizards, which do not harbor trypanosomes, are important hosts and/or if insecticides are used at a scale where tsetse numbers decline

The neglected zoonoses-the case for integrated control and advocacy

AbstractThe neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) have been all but eradicated in wealthier countries, but remain major causes of ill-health and mortality across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This neglect is, in part, a consequence of under-reporting, resulting in an underestimation of their global burden that downgrades their relevance to policy-makers and funding agencies. Increasing awareness about the causes of NZDs and how they can be prevented could reduce the incidence of many endemic zoonoses. Addressing NZDs by targeting the animal reservoir can deliver a double benefit, as enhanced animal health means a reduced risk of infection for humans, as well as improved livelihoods through increased animal productivity. Advocacy for NZD control is increasing, but with it comes a growing awareness that NZD control demands activities both in the short term and over a long period of time. Moreover, despite the promise of cheap, effective vaccines or other control tools, these endemic diseases will not be sustainably controlled in the near future without long-term financial commitment, particularly as disease incidence decreases and other health priorities take hold. NZD intervention costs can seem high when compared with the public health benefits alone, but these costs are easily outweighed when a full cross-sector analysis is carried out and monetary/non-monetary benefits—particularly regarding the livestock sector—are taken into account. Public–private partnerships have recently provided advocacy for human disease control, and could prove equally effective in addressing endemic zoonoses through harnessing social impact investments. Evidence of the disease burdens imposed on communities by the NZDs and demonstration of the cost-effectiveness of integrated control can strengthen the case for a One Health approach to endemic zoonotic disease control

Improvements on Restricted Insecticide Application Protocol for Control of Human and Animal African Trypanosomiasis in Eastern Uganda

African trypanosomes constrain livestock and human health in Sub-Saharan Africa, and aggravate poverty and hunger of these otherwise largely livestock-keeping communities. To solve this, there is need to develop and use effective and cheap tsetse control methods. To this end, we aimed at determining the smallest proportion of a cattle herd that needs to be sprayed on the legs, bellies and ears (RAP) for effective Human and Animal African Trypanosomiasis (HAT/AAT) control.; Cattle in 20 villages were ear-tagged and injected with two doses of diminazene diaceturate (DA) forty days apart, and randomly allocated to one of five treatment regimens namely; no treatment, 25%, 50%, 75% monthly RAP and every 3 month Albendazole drench. Cattle trypanosome re-infection rate was determined by molecular techniques. ArcMap V10.3 was used to map apparent tsetse density (FTD) from trap catches. The effect of graded RAP on incidence risk ratios and trypanosome prevalence was determined using Poisson and logistic random effect models in R and STATA V12.1 respectively. Incidence was estimated at 9.8/100 years in RAP regimens, significantly lower compared to 25.7/100 years in the non-RAP regimens (incidence rate ratio: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.22-0.65; P>0.001). Likewise, trypanosome prevalence after one year of follow up was significantly lower in RAP animals than in non-RAP animals (4% vs 15%, OR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.08-0.44; P>0.001). Contrary to our expectation, level of protection did not increase with increasing proportion of animals treated.; Reduction in RAP coverage did not significantly affect efficacy of treatment. This is envisaged to improve RAP adaptability to low income livestock keepers but needs further evaluation in different tsetse challenge, HAT/AAT transmission rates and management systems before adopting it for routine tsetse control programs