Escenario de futuro cambio climático en la producción de maíz

En esta presentación dio inicio con una introducción acerca del cambio climático global, en América del Sur y en Perú, así como, los cambios de temperatura con proyecciones hacia 2050. Asimismo, se presentó los estudios que se han venido realizado acerca del impacto de ese cambio en la producción y calidad de maíz y las medidas de adaptación para contrarrestarlo

Quantifying wheat blast disease induced yield and production losses of wheat: A quasi-natural experiment

Applying the difference-in-difference (DID) estimation procedure, this study quantifies the wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) induced losses in wheat yield, quantity of wheat sold, consumed, or stored, as well as wheat grain value in Bangladesh in 2016 following a disease outbreak that affected over 15,000 ha. Estimates show that the blast-induced yield loss was 540 kg ha−1 on average for households in blast-affected districts. Estimated total wheat production loss was approximately 8,205 tons worth USD 2.1 million in during the 2016 outbreak. Based on these insights, we discuss the need for long-term assured investment and concerted research efforts in controlling transboundary diseases such as wheat blast, including the importance of weather forecast driven early warning systems and the dissemination of blast-resistant varieties

Targeting drought-tolerant maize varieties in southern Africa: a geospatial crop modeling approach using big data

Maize is a major staple food crop in southern Africa and stress tolerant improved varieties have the potential to increase productivity, enhance livelihoods and reduce food insecurity. This study uses big data in refining the geospatial targeting of new drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Results indicate that more than 1.0 million hectares (Mha) of maize in the study countries is exposed to a seasonal drought frequency exceeding 20% while an additional 1.6 Mha experience a drought occurrence of 10–20%. Spatial modeling indicates that new DT varieties could give a yield advantage of 5–40% over the commercial check variety across drought environments while crop management and input costs are kept equal. Results indicate a huge potential for DT maize seed production and marketing in the study countries. The study demonstrates how big data and analytical tools enhance the targeting and uptake of new agricultural technologies for boosting rural livelihoods, agribusiness development and food security in developing countries

Tortillas on the roaster: Central America’s maize–bean systems and the changing climate

Maize and beans are a vital component of human diets and culture in Central America. More than a million smallholder families grow these crops for subsistence, producing 70% of the maize and 100% of the beans consumed locally. Average yields are low, however – 1.5 t/ha for maize and 0.7 t/ha for beans – on the approximately 2.5 million hectares of land sown to these crops (40% of the total area harvested) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In the years to come, a harsher climate together with soil degradation1, widespread poverty, and rural people’s limited access to services and infrastructure will pose challenging obstacles to production. By 2025, these pressures could result in total annual losses of maize and bean production in the four countries of around 350,000 t – with a gross production value of around US$120 million. To ward off this threat to the food security of some 100,000 households, effective adaptation strategies must be developed in collaboration with stakeholders in the maize and bean value chains. These strategies require strong public support and must draw on both scientific and community knowledge

Tortillas en el comal: los sistemas de maíz y fríjol de América Central y el cambio climático

El maíz y el fríjol son un componente vital de las dietas alimenticias de los humanos y la cultura en América Central. Más de un millón de familias de pequeños agricultores siembran estos cultivos para su subsistencia y producen el 70% del maíz y 100% del fríjol que se consume localmente. Sin embargo, los rendimientos promedio son bajos —1.5 t/ha para maíz y 0.7 t/ha para fríjol — en las cerca de 2.5 millones de hectáreas de tierra sembradas con estos cultivos (40% del área total cosechada) en El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras y Nicaragua. En los próximos años, el cambio climático junto con la degradación del suelo, la pobreza generalizada y el acceso limitado de la población rural a servicios e infraestructura plantearán obstáculos desafiantes para la producción. Para el 2025, estas presiones podrían producir pérdidas anuales totales de la producción de maíz y fríjol en los cuatro países de alrededor de 350.000 t — con un valor bruto de producción cercano a US$120 millones. Para detener esta amenaza para la seguridad alimentaria de alrededor de 100.000 hogares, se deben desarrollar unas estrategias de adaptación efectivas en colaboración con los interesados directos de las cadenas de valor del maíz y el fríjol. Estas estrategias requieren un apoyo público firme y deben aprovechar tanto el conocimiento científico como el saber de las comunidades

Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production

Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most widely grown food crop in the world threatened by future climate change. In this study, we simulated climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for wheat globally using new crop genetic traits (CGT), including increased heat tolerance, early vigor to increase early crop water use, late flowering to reverse an earlier anthesis in warmer conditions, and the combined traits with additional nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, as an option to maximize genetic gains. These simulations were completed using three wheat crop models and five Global Climate Models (GCM) for RCP 8.5 at mid-century. Crop simulations were compared with country, US state, and US county grain yield and production. Wheat yield and production from high-yielding and low-yielding countries were mostly captured by the model ensemble mean. However, US state and county yields and production were often poorly reproduced, with large variability in the models, which is likely due to poor soil and crop management input data at this scale. Climate change is projected to decrease global wheat production by −1.9% by mid-century. However, the most negative impacts are projected to affect developing countries in tropical regions. The model ensemble mean suggests large negative yield impacts for African and Southern Asian countries where food security is already a problem. Yields are predicted to decline by −15% in African countries and −16% in Southern Asian countries by 2050. Introducing CGT as an adaptation to climate change improved wheat yield in many regions, but due to poor nutrient management, many developing countries only benefited from adaptation from CGT when combined with additional N fertilizer. As growing conditions and the impact from climate change on wheat vary across the globe, region-specific adaptation strategies need to be explored to increase the possible benefits of adaptations to climate change in the future.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Wheat Blast: A Disease Spreading by Intercontinental Jumps and Its Management Strategies

Wheat blast (WB) caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum (MoT) is an important fungal disease in tropical and subtropical wheat production regions. The disease was initially identified in Brazil in 1985, and it subsequently spread to some major wheat-producing areas of the country as well as several South American countries such as Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina. In recent years, WB has been introduced to Bangladesh and Zambia via international wheat trade, threatening wheat production in South Asia and Southern Africa with the possible further spreading in these two continents. Resistance source is mostly limited to 2NS carriers, which are being eroded by newly emerged MoT isolates, demonstrating an urgent need for identification and utilization of non-2NS resistance sources. Fungicides are also being heavily relied on to manage WB that resulted in increasing fungal resistance, which should be addressed by utilization of new fungicides or rotating different fungicides. Additionally, quarantine measures, cultural practices, non-fungicidal chemical treatment, disease forecasting, biocontrol etc., are also effective components of integrated WB management, which could be used in combination with varietal resistance and fungicides to obtain reasonable management of this disease