Combining Distribution and Dispersal Models to Identify a Particularly Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem

Habitat suitability models are being used worldwide to help map and manage marine areas of conservation importance and scientific interest. With groundtruthing, these models may be found to successfully predict patches of occurrence, but whether all patches are part of a larger interbreeding metapopulation is much harder to assert. Here we use a North Atlantic deep-sea case study to demonstrate how dispersal models may help to complete the picture. Pheronema carpenteri is a deep-sea sponge that, in aggregation, forms a vulnerable marine ecosystem in the Atlantic Ocean. Published predictive distribution models from United Kingdom and Irish waters have now gained some support from targeted groundtruthing, but known aggregations are distantly fragmented with little predicted habitat available in-between. Dispersal models were used to provide spatial predictions of the potential connectivity between these patches. As little is known of P. carpenteri’s reproductive methods, twenty-four model set-ups with different dispersal assumptions were simulated to present a large range of potential dispersal patterns. The results suggest that up to 53.1% of the total predicted habitat may be reachable in one generation of dispersal from known populations. Yet, even in the most dispersive scenario, the known populations in the North (Hatton-Rockall Basin) and the South (Porcupine Sea Bight) are predicted to be unconnected, resulting in the relative isolation of these patches across multiple generations. This has implications for Ireland’s future conservation efforts as they may have to conserve patches from more than one metapopulation. This means that conserving one patch may not demographically support the other, requiring additional attentions to ensure that marine protected areas are ecologically coherent and sustainable. This example serves as a demonstration of a combined modeling approach where the comparison between predicted distribution and dispersal maps can highlight areas with higher conservation needs.publishedVersio

Towards ‘ecological coherence’: Assessing larval dispersal within a network of existing Marine Protected Areas

The Convention on Biological Diversity mandates the establishment of Marine Protected Area (MPA) networks worldwide, with recommendations stating the importance of ‘ecological coherence’ (a responsibility to support and perpetuate the existing ecosystem) implying the need to sustain population connectivity. While recommendations exist for integrating connectivity data into MPA planning, little advice exists on how to assess the connectivity of existing networks. This study makes use of recently observed larval characteristics and freely available models to demonstrate how such an assessment could be undertaken. The cold water coral (CWC) Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus, 1758) is used as a model species, as much of the NE Atlantic MPA network has been designated for CWC reef protection, but the ecological coherence of the network has yet to be assessed. Simulations are run for different behavioural null models allowing a comparison of ‘passive’ (current driven) and ‘active’ (currents + vertical migration) dispersal, while an average prediction is used for MPA assessment. This model suggests that the network may support widespread larval exchange and has good local retention rates but still has room for improvement. The best performing MPAs were large and central to the network facilitating transport across local dispersal barriers. On average, passive and active dispersal simulations gave statistically similar results, providing encouragement to future local dispersal assessments where active characteristics are unknown

Comparing Deep-Sea Larval Dispersal Models: A Cautionary Tale for Ecology and Conservation

Larval dispersal data are increasingly sought after in ecology and marine conservation, the latter often requiring information under time limited circumstances. Basic estimates of dispersal [based on average current speeds and planktonic larval duration (PLD)] are often used in these situations, usually acknowledging their oversimplified nature, but rarely with an understanding of how oversimplified those assumptions are. Larval dispersal models (LDMs) are becoming more accessible and may produce “better” dispersal predictions than estimates, but the uncertainty introduced by choosing one underlying hydrodynamic model over another is rarely discussed. This case study uses theoretical and simplified deep-sea LDMs to compare the passive predictions of dispersal as driven by two different hydrodynamic models (HYCOM and POLCOMS) and a range of informed basic estimates (based on average current speeds of 0.05, 0.1, and 0.2 m/s). The aim is to provide generalizable insight into the predictive variability introduced by (a) choosing a model over an estimate, and (b) one hydrodynamic over another. LDMs were found to be up to an order of magnitude more conservative in dispersal distance predictions than even the slowest tested estimate (0.05 m/s). The difference increased with PLD which may result in a bigger disparity for deep-sea species predictions. Although the LDMs were more spatially targeted than the estimates, the two LDM predictions were also significantly different from each other. This means that choosing one hydrodynamic model over another could result in contrasting ecological interpretations or advice for marine conservation. These results show a greater potential for hydrodynamic model variability than previously appreciated by larval dispersal ecologists and strongly advocates groundtruthing predictions before use in management. Advice is offered for improved model selection and interpretation of predictions.publishedVersio

Primate modularity and evolution: first anatomical network analysis of primate head and neck musculoskeletal system

Network theory is increasingly being used to study morphological modularity and integration. Anatomical network analysis (AnNA) is a framework for quantitatively characterizing the topological organization of anatomical structures and providing an operational way to compare structural integration and modularity. Here we apply AnNA for the first time to study the macroevolution of the musculoskeletal system of the head and neck in primates and their closest living relatives, paying special attention to the evolution of structures associated with facial and vocal communication. We show that well-defined left and right facial modules are plesiomorphic for primates, while anthropoids consistently have asymmetrical facial modules that include structures of both sides, a change likely related to the ability to display more complex, asymmetrical facial expressions. However, no clear trends in network organization were found regarding the evolution of structures related to speech. Remarkably, the increase in the number of head and neck muscles – and thus of musculoskeletal structures – in human evolution led to a decrease in network density and complexity in humans

Fine-tuning implications for complementary dark matter and LHC SUSY searches

The requirement that SUSY should solve the hierarchy problem without undue fine-tuning imposes severe constraints on the new supersymmetric states. With the MSSM spectrum and soft SUSY breaking originating from universal scalar and gaugino masses at the Grand Unification scale, we show that the low-fine-tuned regions fall into two classes that will require complementary collider and dark matter searches to explore in the near future. The first class has relatively light gluinos or squarks which should be found by the LHC in its first run. We identify the multijet plus E_T^miss signal as the optimal channel and determine the discovery potential in the first run. The second class has heavier gluinos and squarks but the LSP has a significant Higgsino component and should be seen by the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments. The combined information from the 7 TeV LHC run and the next generation of direct detection experiments can test almost all of the CMSSM parameter space consistent with dark matter and EW constraints, corresponding to a fine-tuning not worse than 1:100. To cover the complete low-fine-tuned region by SUSY searches at the LHC will require running at the full 14 TeV CM energy; in addition it may be tested indirectly by Higgs searches covering the mass range below 120 GeV.Comment: References added. Version accepted for publication in JHE

Frequent coexistence of anti-topoisomerase I and anti-U1RNP autoantibodies in African American patients associated with mild skin involvement: a retrospective clinical study

Introduction: The presence of anti-topoisomerase I (topo I) antibodies is a classic scleroderma (SSc) marker presumably associated with a unique clinical subset. Here the clinical association of anti-topo I was reevaluated in unselected patients seen in a rheumatology clinic setting.Methods: Sera from the initial visit in a cohort of unselected rheumatology clinic patients (n = 1,966, including 434 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 119 SSc, 85 polymyositis/dermatomyositis (PM/DM)) were screened by radioimmunoprecipitation. Anti-topo I-positive sera were also tested with immunofluorescence and RNA immunoprecipitation.Results: Twenty-five (15 Caucasian, eight African American, two Latin) anti-topo I positive patients were identified, and all except one met the ACR SSc criteria. Coexistence of other SSc autoantibodies was not observed, except for anti-U1RNP in six cases. When anti-topo I alone versus anti-topo I + U1RNP groups were compared, African American (21% vs. 67%), overlap with SLE (0 vs. 50%; P = 0.009) or PM/DM (0 vs. 33%; P = 0.05) or elevated creatine phosphokinase (CPK) (P = 0.07) were more common in the latter group. In comparison of anti-topo I-positive Caucasians versus African Americans, the latter more frequently had anti-U1RNP (13% vs. 50%), mild/no skin changes (14% vs. 63%; P = 0.03) and overlap with SLE (0 vs. 38%; P = 0.03) and PM/DM (0 vs. 25%; P = 0.05).Conclusions: Anti-topo I detected by immunoprecipitation in unselected rheumatology patients is highly specific for SSc. Anti-topo I coexisting with anti-U1RNP in African American patients is associated with a subset of SLE overlapping with SSc and PM/DM but without apparent sclerodermatous changes. \ua9 2011 Satoh et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

smokeSALUD: exploring the effect of demographic change on the smoking prevalence at municipality level in Austria

Background: Reducing the smoking population is still high on the policy agenda, as smoking leads to many preventable diseases, such as lung cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and more. In Austria, data on smoking prevalence only exists at the federal state level. This provides an interesting overview about the current health situation, but for regional planning authorities these data are often insufficient as they can hide pockets of high and low smoking prevalence in certain municipalities. Methods: This paper presents a spatial-temporal change of estimated smokers for municipalities from 2001 and 2011. A synthetic dataset of smokers is built by combining individual large-scale survey data and small area census data using a deterministic spatial microsimulation approach. Statistical analysis, including chi-square test and binary logistic regression, are applied to find the best variables 24 for the simulation model and to validate its results. Results: As no easy-to-use spatial microsimulation software for non-programmers is available yet, a flexible web-based spatial microsimulation application for health decision support (called simSALUD) has been developed and used for these analyses. The results of the simulation show in general a decrease of smoking prevalence within municipalities between 2001 and 2011 and 29 differences within areas are identified. These results are especially valuable to policy decision makers for future planning strategies. Conclusions: This case study shows the application of smokeSALUD to model the spatial-temporal changes in the smoking population in Austria between 2001 and 2011. This is important as no data on smoking exists at this geographical scale (municipality). However, spatial microsimulation models are useful tools to estimate small area health data and to overcome these problems. The simulations and analysis should support health decision makers to identify hot spots of smokers and this should 36 help to show where to spend health resources best in order to reduce health inequalities

Maternal neurofascin-specific autoantibodies bind to structures of the fetal nervous system during pregnancy, but have no long term effect on development in the rat

Neurofascin was recently reported as a target for axopathic autoantibodies in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), a response that will exacerbate axonal pathology and disease severity in an animal model of multiple sclerosis. As transplacental transfer of maternal autoantibodies can permanently damage the developing nervous system we investigated whether intrauterine exposure to this neurofascin-specific response had any detrimental effect on white matter tract development. To address this question we intravenously injected pregnant rats with either a pathogenic anti-neurofascin monoclonal antibody or an appropriate isotype control on days 15 and 18 of pregnancy, respectively, to mimic the physiological concentration of maternal antibodies in the circulation of the fetus towards the end of pregnancy. Pups were monitored daily with respect to litter size, birth weight, growth and motor development. Histological studies were performed on E20 embryos and pups sacrificed on days 2, 10, 21, 32 and 45 days post partum. Results: Immunohistochemistry for light and confocal microscopy confirmed passively transferred anti-neurofascin antibody had crossed the placenta to bind to distinct structures in the developing cortex and cerebellum. However, this did not result in any significant differences in litter size, birth weight, or general physical development between litters from control mothers or those treated with the neurofascin-specific antibody. Histological analysis also failed to identify any neuronal or white matter tract abnormalities induced by the neurofascin-specific antibody. Conclusions: We show that transplacental transfer of circulating anti-neurofascin antibodies can occur and targets specific structures in the CNS of the developing fetus. However, this did not result in any pre- or post-natal abnormalities in the offspring of the treated mothers. These results assure that even if anti-neurofascin responses are detected in pregnant women with multiple sclerosis these are unlikely to have a negative effect on their children

Naturalness and Fine Tuning in the NMSSM: Implications of Early LHC Results

We study the fine tuning in the parameter space of the semi-constrained NMSSM, where most soft Susy breaking parameters are universal at the GUT scale. We discuss the dependence of the fine tuning on the soft Susy breaking parameters M_1/2 and m0, and on the Higgs masses in NMSSM specific scenarios involving large singlet-doublet Higgs mixing or dominant Higgs-to-Higgs decays. Whereas these latter scenarios allow a priori for considerably less fine tuning than the constrained MSSM, the early LHC results rule out a large part of the parameter space of the semi-constrained NMSSM corresponding to low values of the fine tuning.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, bounds from Susy searches with ~1/fb include

Vitamin D receptor ChIP-seq in primary CD4+ cells: relationship to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and autoimmune disease

PMCID: PMC3710212This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited