A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Open Access journalCopyright: © 2014 Ferraro et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric. However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)—a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability. Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed ‘unusual’, ‘unfamiliar’ and ‘unknown’ by reference to an individual’s lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world’s population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of ‘unknown’ or ‘unfamiliar’ climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now

A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation

While cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dominate anthropogenic warming over centuries, temperatures over the coming decades are also strongly affected by short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), complicating the estimation of cumulative emission budgets for ambitious mitigation goals. Using conventional Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert SLCPs to “CO2-equivalent” emissions misrepresents their impact on global temperature. Here we show that peak warming under a range of mitigation scenarios is determined by a linear combination of cumulative CO2 emissions to the time of peak warming and non-CO2 radiative forcing immediately prior to that time. This may be understood by expressing aggregate non-CO2 forcing as cumulative CO2 forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We show further that contributions to CO2-fe emissions are well approximated by a new usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, which relates cumulative CO2 emissions to date with the current rate of emission of SLCPs. GWP* accurately indicates the impact of emissions of both long-lived and short-lived pollutants on radiative forcing and temperatures over a wide range of timescales, including under ambitious mitigation when conventional GWPs fail. Measured by GWP*,implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to a No Policy scenario. Expressing mitigation efforts in terms of their impact on future cumulative emissions aggregated using GWP* would relate them directly to contributions to future warming, better informing both burden-sharing discussions and long-term policies and measures in pursuit of ambitious global temperature goals

Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate

Current climate engineering proposals do not come close to addressing the complex and contested nature of conceivable ‘climate emergencies’ resulting from unabated greenhouse gas emissions

The kinetics of antibody binding to Plasmodium falciparum VAR2CSA PfEMP1 antigen and modelling of PfEMP1 antigen packing on the membrane knobs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infected humans make protective antibody responses to the PfEMP1 adhesion antigens exported by <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>parasites to the erythrocyte membrane, but little is known about the kinetics of this antibody-receptor binding reaction or how the topology of PfEMP1 on the parasitized erythrocyte membrane influences antibody association with, and dissociation from, its antigenic target.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Quartz Crystal Microbalance biosensor was used to measure the association and dissociation kinetics of VAR2CSA PfEMP1 binding to human monoclonal antibodies. Immuno-fluorescence microscopy was used to visualize antibody-mediated adhesion between the surfaces of live infected erythrocytes and atomic force microscopy was used to obtain higher resolution images of the membrane knobs on the infected erythrocyte to estimate knob surface areas and model VAR2CSA packing density on the knob.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Kinetic analysis indicates that antibody dissociation from the VAR2CSA PfEMP1 antigen is extremely slow when there is a high avidity interaction. High avidity binding to PfEMP1 antigens on the surface of <it>P. falciparum</it>-infected erythrocytes in turn requires bivalent cross-linking of epitopes positioned within the distance that can be bridged by antibody. Calculations of the surface area of the knobs and the possible densities of PfEMP1 packing on the knobs indicate that high-avidity cross-linking antibody reactions are constrained by the architecture of the knobs and the large size of PfEMP1 molecules.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>High avidity is required to achieve the strongest binding to VAR2CSA PfEMP1, but the structures that display PfEMP1 also tend to inhibit cross-linking between PfEMP1 antigens, by holding many binding epitopes at distances beyond the 15-18 nm sweep radius of an antibody. The large size of PfEMP1 will also constrain intra-knob cross-linking interactions. This analysis indicates that effective vaccines targeting the parasite's vulnerable adhesion receptors should primarily induce strongly adhering, high avidity antibodies whose association rate constant is less important than their dissociation rate constant.</p

A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target

The world's governments agreed to limit global mean temperature change to below 2-derees C compared with pr-industrial levels in the years following the 2009 climate conference in Copenhagen. This 2-degrees C warming target is perceived by the pulic as a universally accepted goal, identified by scientists as a safe limit that avoids dangerous climate change. This perception is incorrect: no scientific assessment has clearly justified or defended the 2-degrees C target as a safe level of warming, and indeed, this is not a problem that science alone can address. We argue that global temperature is the best climate target quantity, but it is unclear what level can be consiered safe. The 2-degrees C target is useful for anchoring discussions, but has been ineffective in triggering the required emission reductions; debates on considering a lower target are strongly at odds with the current real-world level of action. These debates are moot, however, as the decisions that need to be taken now to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees C are very similar. We need to agree how to start, not where to end mitigation