Consumers’ evaluation of allocation policies for scarce health care services: Vested interest activation trumps spatial and temporal distance

The allocation of scarce health care service resources often requires trade-offs between individual and collective outcomes (e.g., when some individuals benefit more strongly from a given policy th

Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Towards Collaborative Interactive Machine Learning

In this paper, we present the current state-of-the-art of decision making (DM) and machine learning (ML) and bridge the two research domains to create an integrated approach of complex problem solving based on human and computational agents. We present a novel classification of ML, emphasizing the human-in-the-loop in interactive ML (iML) and more specific on collaborative interactive ML (ciML), which we understand as a deep integrated version of iML, where humans and algorithms work hand in hand to solve complex problems. Both humans and computers have specific strengths and weaknesses and integrating humans into machine learning processes might be a very efficient way for tackling problems. This approach bears immense research potential for various domains, e.g., in health informatics or in industrial applications. We outline open questions and name future challenges that have to be addressed by the research community to enable the use of collaborative interactive machine learning for problem solving in a large scale

Recombination and Population Structure in Salmonella enterica

Salmonella enterica is a bacterial pathogen that causes enteric fever and gastroenteritis in humans and animals. Although its population structure was long described as clonal, based on high linkage disequilibrium between loci typed by enzyme electrophoresis, recent examination of gene sequences has revealed that recombination plays an important evolutionary role. We sequenced around 10% of the core genome of 114 isolates of enterica using a resequencing microarray. Application of two different analysis methods (Structure and ClonalFrame) to our genomic data allowed us to define five clear lineages within S. enterica subspecies enterica, one of which is five times older than the other four and two thirds of the age of the whole subspecies. We show that some of these lineages display more evidence of recombination than others. We also demonstrate that some level of sexual isolation exists between the lineages, so that recombination has occurred predominantly between members of the same lineage. This pattern of recombination is compatible with expectations from the previously described ecological structuring of the enterica population as well as mechanistic barriers to recombination observed in laboratory experiments. In spite of their relatively low level of genetic differentiation, these lineages might therefore represent incipient species

Digital engagement methods for earthquake and fire preparedness:a review

Natural or human-made hazards may occur at any time. Although one might assume that individuals plan in advance for such potentially damaging events, the existing literature indicates that most communities remain inadequately prepared. In the past, research in this area has focused on identifying the most effective ways to communicate risk and elicit preparedness by means of public hazard education campaigns and risk communication programmes. Today, web- and mobile-based technologies are offering new and far-reaching means to inform communities on how to prepare for or cope with extreme events, thus significantly contributing to community preparedness. Nonetheless, their practical efficacy in encouraging proactive hazard preparedness behaviours is not yet proven. Building on behaviour change interventions in the health field and looking in particular at earthquakes and fire hazards, the challenging RISK team has reviewed the currently active websites, Web, and mobile applications that provide information about earthquake and home fire preparedness. The review investigates the type of information provided, the modality of delivery, and the presence of behaviour change techniques in their design. The study proves that most of the digital resources focus on a single hazard and fail to provide context-sensitive information that targets specific groups of users. Furthermore, behaviour change techniques are rarely implemented in the design of these applications and their efficacy is rarely systematically evaluated. Recommendations for improving the design of Web- and mobile-based technologies are made so as to increase their effectiveness and uptake for a multi-hazard approach to earthquake and home fire preparedness

No se fían

It is a standard practice to test for the signature of homologous recombination in studies examining the genetic diversity of bacterial populations. Although it has emerged that homologous recombination rates can vary widely between species, comparing the results from different studies is made difficult by the diversity of estimation methods used. Here, Multi Locus Sequence Typing (MLST) datasets from a wide variety of bacteria and archaea are analyzed using the ClonalFrame method. This enables a direct comparison between species and allows for a first exploration of the question whether phylogeny or ecology is the primary determinant of homologous recombination rate

I’ll have the ice cream soon and the vegetables later: A study of online grocery purchases and order lead time

Lead time, Intertemporal choice, Want/should, E-commerce, Intrapersonal conflict,

Quantitative Risk, Statistical Methods and the Four Quadrants for Information Security

Achieving the quantitative risk assessment has long been an elusive problem in information security, where the subjective and qualitative assessments dominate. This paper discusses the appropriateness of statistical and quantitative methods for information security risk management. Through case studies, we discuss different types of risks in terms of quantitative risk assessment, grappling with how to obtain distributions of both probability and consequence for the risks. N.N. Taleb’s concepts of the Black Swan and the Four Quadrants provides the foundation for our approach and classification. We apply these concepts to determine where it is appropriate to apply quantitative methods, and where we should exert caution in our predictions. Our primary contribution is a treatise on different types of risk calculations, and a classification of information security threats within the Four Quadrants