The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Covid-19 has predominantly affected mortality at high ages. It kills by inflaming and clogging the air sacs in the lungs, depriving the body of oxygen ‒ inducing hypoxia ‒ which closes down essential organs, in particular the heart, kidneys and liver, and causes blood clots (which can lead to stroke or pulmonary embolism) and neurological malfunction. Evidence from different countries points to the fact that people who die from Covid-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. This is true for England & Wales – the two countries we focus on in this study. The implication is that the years of life lost through early death are less than the average for each age group, with how much less being a source of considerable debate. We argue that many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. We demonstrate how to capture this link to poorer-than-average health using a model in which individual deaths are ‘accelerated’ ahead of schedule due to Covid-19. The model structure and its parameterization build on the observation that Covid-19 mortality by age is approximately proportional to all-cause mortality. This, in combination with current predictions of total deaths, results in the important conclusion that, everything else being equal, the impact of Covid-19 on the mortality rates of the surviving population will be very modest. Specifically, the degree of anti-selection is likely to be very small, since the life expectancy of survivors does not increase by a significant amount over pre-pandemic levels. We also analyze the degree to which Covid-19 mortality varies with socio-economic status. Headline statistics suggest that the most deprived groups have been disproportionately affected by Covid-19. However, once we control for regional differences in mortality rates, Covid-19 deaths in both the most and least deprived groups are also proportional to the all-cause mortality of these groups. However, the groups in between have approximately 10-15% lower Covid-19 deaths compared with their all-cause mortality. We argue that useful lessons about the potential pattern of accelerated deaths from Covid-19 can be drawn from examining deaths from respiratory diseases, especially at different age ranges. We also argue that it is possible to draw useful lessons about volatility spikes in Covid-19 deaths from examining past seasonal flu epidemics. However, there is an important difference. Whereas the spikes in seasonal flu increase with age, our finding that Covid-19 death rates are approximately proportional to all-cause mortality suggests that any spike in Covid-19 mortality in percentage terms would be similar across all age ranges. Finally, we discuss some of the indirect consequences for future mortality of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ measures governments have imposed to contain it. For example, there is evidence that some surviving patients at all ages who needed intensive care could end up with a new impairment, such as organ damage, which will reduce their life expectancy. There is also evidence that many people in lockdown did not seek a timely medical assessment for a potential new illness, such as cancer, or deferred seeking treatment for an existing serious illness, with the consequence that non-Covid-19-related mortality rates could increase in future. Self-isolation during lockdown has contributed to an increase in alcohol and drug consumption by some people which might, in turn, reduce their life expectancy. If another consequence of the pandemic is a recession and/or an acceleration in job automation, resulting in long-term unemployment, then this could lead to so-called ‘deaths of despair’ in future. Other people, by contrast, might permanently change their social behaviour or seek treatments that delay the impact or onset of age-related diseases, one of the primary factors that make people more susceptible to the virus – both of which could have the effect of increasing their life expectancy. It is, however, too early to quantify these possibilities, although it is conceivable that these indirect consequences could have a bigger impact on future average life expectancy than the direct consequences measured by the accelerated deaths model

Orbital debris measurements

What is currently known about the orbital debris flux is from a combination of ground based and in-space measurements. These measurements have revealed an increasing population with decreasing size. A summary of measurements is presented for the following sources: the North American Aerospace Defense Command Catalog, the Perimeter Acquisition and Attack Characterization System Radar, ground based optical telescopes, the Explorer 46 Meteoroid Bumper Experiment, spacecraft windows, and Solar Max surfaces

Origin of orbital debris impacts on LDEF's trailing surfaces

A model was developed to determine the origin of orbital impacts measured on the training surfaces of LDEF. The model calculates the expected debris impact crater distribution around LDEF as a function of debris orbital parameters. The results show that only highly elliptical, low inclination orbits could be responsible for these impacts. The most common objects left in this type of orbit are orbital transfer stages used by the U.S. and ESA to place payloads into geosynchronous orbit. Objects in this type of orbit are difficult to catalog by the U.S. Space Command; consequently there are independent reasons to believe that the catalog does not adequately represent this population. This analysis concludes that the relative number of cataloged objects with highly elliptical, low inclination orbits must be increased by a factor of 20 to be consistent with the LDEF data

Universal transloader moves delicate equipment without stress

Transloader moves delicate or heavy items over irregular surfaces without transmitting stress to the load. The loader is supported on three pivot points which produce a wrap free base. The base is supported by an artificial four-wheel frame

The Global Employer: The Labor Relations and Collective Agreements Issue

[Excerpt] Baker & McKenzie’s Global Employment Practice Group is pleased to present its 56th issue of The Global Employer™ entitled “The Labor Relations and Collective Agreements Issue.” In this issue you will find the first report from our Future of Work Series. Labor Relations Report - Brand Attack: How to avoid becoming the target of a corporate campaign and what actions to take if you do. The Future of Work is a series of client reports based on panel discussions at our Global Employer Forum, a two-day thought leadership conference. During the forum, nearly 70 clients, academics and consultants gathered with our employment partners to discuss pressing workplace topics like talent shortages, data privacy, global mobility assignments, globalization of unions and managing the employment aspects of M&A deals. Rather than the traditional “how to” legal format of most law firm conferences, the Global Employer Forum features panel discussions of in-house counsel and senior-level executives from some of the world’s largest multinational organizations who discussed their personal experiences addressing these challenges and the solutions they have found to overcome them. Following the Labor Relations Report, you will also find information pertaining to the current state of labor relations and union negotiations in Argentina and a general overview of the current state of collective bargaining in Brazil. In Germany, we take a look at some of the numbers behind collective bargaining agreements; and a review of the impacts on labor benefits of the January 2014, Income Tax Law reform in Mexico. From Spain we bring you articles that discuss negotiating with representatives bodies in collective lay-offs and the new role of company level collective bargaining agreements; and from the US, recent efforts by the NLRB as it Targets Successor Issues in US Mergers and Acquisitions

Nonlinear lattice model of viscoelastic Mode III fracture

We study the effect of general nonlinear force laws in viscoelastic lattice models of fracture, focusing on the existence and stability of steady-state Mode III cracks. We show that the hysteretic behavior at small driving is very sensitive to the smoothness of the force law. At large driving, we find a Hopf bifurcation to a straight crack whose velocity is periodic in time. The frequency of the unstable bifurcating mode depends on the smoothness of the potential, but is very close to an exact period-doubling instability. Slightly above the onset of the instability, the system settles into a exactly period-doubled state, presumably connected to the aforementioned bifurcation structure. We explicitly solve for this new state and map out its velocity-driving relation

Human operator identification model and related computer programs

Four computer programs which provide computational assistance in the analysis of man/machine systems are reported. The programs are: (1) Modified Transfer Function Program (TF); (2) Time Varying Response Program (TVSR); (3) Optimal Simulation Program (TVOPT); and (4) Linear Identification Program (SCIDNT). The TV program converts the time domain state variable system representative to frequency domain transfer function system representation. The TVSR program computes time histories of the input/output responses of the human operator model. The TVOPT program is an optimal simulation program and is similar to TVSR in that it produces time histories of system states associated with an operator in the loop system. The differences between the two programs are presented. The SCIDNT program is an open loop identification code which operates on the simulated data from TVOPT (or TVSR) or real operator data from motion simulators

The Effects of Competition on Variation in the Quality and Cost of Medical Care

We estimate the effects of hospital competition on the level of and the variation in quality of care and hospital expenditures for elderly Medicare beneficiaries with heart attack. We compare competition's effects on more-severely ill patients, whom we assume value quality more highly, to the effects on less-severely ill, low-valuation patients. We find that low-valuation patients in less-competitive markets receive more intensive treatment than in more-competitive markets, but have statistically similar health outcomes. In contrast, high-valuation patients in less-competitive markets receive less intensive treatment than in more-competitive markets, and have significantly worse health outcomes. Since this competition-induced increase in variation in expenditures is, on net, expenditure-decreasing and outcome-beneficial, we conclude that it is welfare-enhancing. These findings are inconsistent with conventional models of vertical differentiation, although they can be accommodated by more recent models.

A Generalization of the Brodsky-Lepage Formalism

We present an approach that generalizes in a natural way the perturbative QCD formalism developed by Brodsky and Lepage for the study of exclusive hadronic processes to the case of $L\neq 0$ mesons. As an application of our approach we consider here the production of meson pairs, involving tensor and pseudotensor mesons, in photon-photon collisions.Comment: LaTeX, 5 pages, 1 embedded ps figure, uses macros sprocl.sty, epsfig.sty. Talk delivered by F. Murgia at the PHOTON'97 Conference, Egmond aan Zee, The Netherlands, May 10-15, 1997. To be published in the proceedings by World Scientifi

Superradiance-like Electron Transport through a Quantum Dot

We theoretically show that intriguing features of coherent many-body physics can be observed in electron transport through a quantum dot (QD). We first derive a master equation based framework for electron transport in the Coulomb-blockade regime which includes hyperfine (HF) interaction with the nuclear spin ensemble in the QD. This general tool is then used to study the leakage current through a single QD in a transport setting. We find that, for an initially polarized nuclear system, the proposed setup leads to a strong current peak, in close analogy with superradiant emission of photons from atomic ensembles. This effect could be observed with realistic experimental parameters and would provide clear evidence of coherent HF dynamics of nuclear spin ensembles in QDs.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure