Effect of Mitigation Measures on the Spreading of COVID-19 in Hard-Hit States

State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow down the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, are largely based on extrapolating the data from other countries. Since most states enforced stay-at-home orders towards the end of March, their effect should be reflected in the death and infection counts at the end of April. Using the data available until April 25th, we investigate the change in the infection rate due to the mitigation efforts, and project death and infection counts until September, 2020, for some of the most heavily impacted states: New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois and Louisiana. We find that with the current mitigation efforts five of those six states reduce their reproduction number to a value less than one, stopping the exponential growth of the pandemic. We also projected different scenarios after the mitigation is relaxed. Analysis for other states can be found at https://covid19projection.org/.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 2 table

Identifying structural changes with unsupervised machine learning methods

Unsupervised machine learning methods are used to identify structural changes using the melting point transition in classical molecular dynamics simulations as an example application of the approach. Dimensionality reduction and clustering methods are applied to instantaneous radial distributions of atomic configurations from classical molecular dynamics simulations of metallic systems over a large temperature range. Principal component analysis is used to dramatically reduce the dimensionality of the feature space across the samples using an orthogonal linear transformation that preserves the statistical variance of the data under the condition that the new feature space is linearly independent. From there, k-means clustering is used to partition the samples into solid and liquid phases through a criterion motivated by the geometry of the reduced feature space of the samples, allowing for an estimation of the melting point transition. This pattern criterion is conceptually similar to how humans interpret the data but with far greater throughput, as the shapes of the radial distributions are different for each phase and easily distinguishable by humans. The transition temperature estimates derived from this machine learning approach produce comparable results to other methods on similarly small system sizes. These results show that machine learning approaches can be applied to structural changes in physical systems

Phosphoinositide 3-kinase: a critical signalling event in pulmonary cells.

Phosphoinositide 3-kinases (PI-3Ks) are enzymes that generate lipid second messenger molecules, resulting in the activation of multiple intracellular signalling cascades. These events regulate a broad array of cellular responses including survival, activation, differentiation and proliferation and are now recognised to have a key role in a number of physiological and pathophysiological processes in the lung. PI-3Ks contribute to the pathogenesis of asthma by influencing the proliferation of airways smooth muscle and the recruitment of eosinophils, and affect the balance between the harmful and protective responses in pulmonary inflammation and infection by the modulation of granulocyte recruitment, activation and apoptosis. In addition they also seem to exert a critical influence on the malignant phenotype of small cell lung cancer. PI-3K isoforms and their downstream targets thus provide novel therapeutic targets for intervention in a broad spectrum of respiratory diseases.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Ten Years of Experience Training Non-Physician Anesthesia Providers in Haiti.

Surgery is increasingly recognized as an effective means of treating a proportion of the global burden of disease, especially in resource-limited countries. Often non-physicians, such as nurses, provide the majority of anesthesia; however, their training and formal supervision is often of low priority or even non-existent. To increase the number of safe anesthesia providers in Haiti, Médecins Sans Frontières has trained nurse anesthetists (NAs) for over 10 years. This article describes the challenges, outcomes, and future directions of this training program. From 1998 to 2008, 24 students graduated. Nineteen (79%) continue to work as NAs in Haiti and 5 (21%) have emigrated. In 2008, NAs were critical in providing anesthesia during a post-hurricane emergency where they performed 330 procedures. Mortality was 0.3% and not associated with lack of anesthesiologist supervision. The completion rate of this training program was high and the majority of graduates continue to work as nurse anesthetists in Haiti. Successful training requires a setting with a sufficient volume and diversity of operations, appropriate anesthesia equipment, a structured and comprehensive training program, and recognition of the training program by the national ministry of health and relevant professional bodies. Preliminary outcomes support findings elsewhere that NAs can be a safe and effective alternative where anesthesiologists are scarce. Training non-physician anesthetists is a feasible and important way to scale up surgical services resource limited settings

Liver-Targeting of Interferon-Alpha with Tissue-Specific Domain Antibodies

PMCID: PMC3581439This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Emplacement of inflated Pāhoehoe flows in the Naude’s Nek Pass, Lesotho remnant, Karoo continental flood basalt province: use of flow-lobe tumuli in understanding flood basalt emplacement

Physical volcanological features are presented for a 710-m-thick section, of the Naude’s Nek Pass, within the lower part of the Lesotho remnant of the Karoo Large Igneous Province. The section consists of inflated pāhoehoe lava with thin, impersistent sedimentary interbeds towards the base. There are seven discreet packages of compound and hummocky pāhoehoe lobes containing flow-lobe tumuli, making up approximately 50% of the section. Approximately 45% of the sequence consists of 14 sheet lobes, between 10 and 52-m-thick. The majority of the sheet lobes are in two packages indicating prolonged periods of lava supply capable of producing thick sheet lobes. The other sheet lobes are as individual lobes or pairs, within compound flows, suggesting brief increases in lava supply rate. We suggest, contrary to current belief, that there is no evidence that compound flows are proximal to source and sheet lobes (simple flows) are distal to source and we propose that the presence of flow-lobe tumuli in compound flows could be an indicator that a flow is distal to source. We use detailed, previously published, studies of the Thakurvadi Formation (Deccan Traps) as an example. We show that the length of a lobe and therefore the sections that are ‘medial or distal to source’ are specific to each individual lobe and are dependent on the lava supply of each eruptive event, and as such flow lobe tumuli can be used as an indicator of relative distance from source

Cytotoxic Mediators in Paradoxical HIV-Tuberculosis Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome

Tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) frequently complicates combined antiretroviral therapy and antituberculosis therapy in HIV-1–coinfected tuberculosis patients. The immunopathological mechanisms underlying TB-IRIS are incompletely defined, and improved understanding is required to derive new treatments and to reduce associated morbidity and mortality. We performed longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses of human PBMCs from paradoxical TB-IRIS patients and non-IRIS controls (HIV-TB–coinfected patients commencing antiretroviral therapy who did not develop TB-IRIS). Freshly isolated PBMC stimulated with heat-killed Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv (hkH37Rv) were used for IFN-γ ELISPOT and RNA extraction. Stored RNA was used for microarray and RT-PCR, whereas corresponding stored culture supernatants were used for ELISA. Stored PBMC were used for perforin and granzyme B ELISPOT and flow cytometry. There were significantly increased IFN-γ responses to hkH37Rv in TB-IRIS, compared with non-IRIS PBMC (p = 0.035). Microarray analysis of hkH37Rv-stimulated PBMC indicated that perforin 1 was the most significantly upregulated gene, with granzyme B among the top five (log(2) fold difference 3.587 and 2.828, respectively), in TB-IRIS. Downstream experiments using RT-PCR, ELISA, and ELISPOT confirmed the increased expression and secretion of perforin and granzyme B. Moreover, granzyme B secretion reduced in PBMC from TB-IRIS patients during corticosteroid treatment. Invariant NKT cell (CD3(+)Vα24(+)) proportions were higher in TB-IRIS patients (p = 0.004) and were a source of perforin. Our data implicate the granule exocytosis pathway in TB-IRIS pathophysiology. Further understanding of the immunopathogenesis of this condition will facilitate development of specific diagnostic and improved therapeutic options

Motivations and barriers to prosthesis users participation in physical activity, exercise and sport : a review of the literature

The UK will host the Paralympics in 2012 and the Commonwealth Games in 2014 showcasing the talents of elite athletes and aiming to inspire the population to become involved. However, low levels of physical activity (PA) are prevalent: only 40% of men and 28% of women meet the minimum UK recommendations. The limb absent population is no exception. To determine if people with limb amputations are participating in physical activity and sport; whether post-amputation activity levels match pre-amputation levels; and if there are motivations and barriers to participation. Study design: Literature review Five reviewers systematically search of peer reviewed and gray literature in seven bibliographic databases and the Cochrane Library. Results: Following rigorous elimination, 12 articles were finally included in the review and critically appraised. Four themes were identified: components, rehabilitation outcomes, body image and motivations and barriers to participation. People with limb absence are not participating in PA conducive to health benefits, and only a minority participate in exercise and sports. Participation following amputation does not mirror that of pre-amputation levels, and more barriers than motivations exist to adopting and maintaining a physically active lifestyle. This literature review aims to inform those involved in rehabilitation and ongoing care of those with limb absence about what motivates or precludes their participation in physical activity, exercise and sport. Such knowledge could be applied to improving health and well being in this population