The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions

The Beta Ansatz: A Tale of Two Complex Structures

Brane tilings, sometimes called dimer models, are a class of bipartite graphs on a torus which encode the gauge theory data of four-dimensional SCFTs dual to D3-branes probing toric Calabi-Yau threefolds. An efficient way of encoding this information exploits the theory of dessin d’enfants, expressing the structure in terms of a permutation triple, which is in turn related to a Belyi pair, namely a holomorphic map from a torus to a P1 with three marked points. The procedure of a-maximization, in the context of isoradial embeddings of the dimer, also associates a complex structure to the torus, determined by the R-charges in the SCFT, which can be compared with the Belyi complex structure. Algorithms for the explicit construction of the Belyi pairs are described in detail. In the case of orbifolds, these algorithms are related to the construction of covers of elliptic curves, which exploits the properties of Weierstraß elliptic functions. We present a counter example to a previous conjecture identifying the complex structure of the Belyi curve to the complex structure associated with R-charges

Measuring enteric methane emissions from individual ruminant animals in their natural environment

Ruminant livestock are an important source of meat, milk, fiber, and labor for humans. The process by which ruminants digest plant material through rumen fermentation into useful product results in the loss of energy in the form of methane gas from consumed organic matter. The animal removes the methane building up in its rumen by repeated eructations of gas through its mouth and nostrils. Ruminant livestock are a notable source of atmospheric methane, with an estimated 17% of global enteric methane emissions from livestock. Historically, enteric methane was seen as an inefficiency in production and wasted dietary energy. This is still the case, but now methane is seen more as a pollutant and potent greenhouse gas. The gold standard method for measuring methane production from individual animals is a respiration chamber, which is used for metabolic studies. This approach to quantifying individual animal emissions has been used in research for over 100 years; however, it is not suitable for monitoring large numbers of animals in their natural environment on commercial farms. In recent years, several more mobile monitoring systems discussed here have been developed for direct measurement of enteric methane emissions from individual animals. Several factors (diet composition, rumen microbial community, and their relationship with morphology and physiology of the host animal) drive enteric methane production in ruminant populations. A reliable method for monitoring individual animal emissions in large populations would allow (1) genetic selection for low emitters, (2) benchmarking of farms, and (3) more accurate national inventory accounting

Introduction of organised mammography screening in tyrol: results of a one-year pilot phase

Background: Efficiency and efficacy of organised mammography screening programs have been proven in large randomised trials. But every local implementation of mammography screening has to check whether the well established quality standards are met. Therefore it was the aim of this study to analyse the most common quality indices after introducing organised mammography screening in Tyrol, Austria, in a smooth transition from the existing system of opportunistic screening. Methods: In June 2007, the system of opportunistic mammography screening in Tyrol was changed to an organised system by introducing a personal invitation system, a training program, a quality assurance program and by setting up a screening database. All procedures are noted in a written protocol. Most EU recommendations for organised mammography screening were followed, except double reading. All women living in Tyrol and covered by social insurance are now invited for a mammography, in age group 40-59 annually and in age group 60-69 biannually. Screening mammography is offered mainly by radiologists in private practice. We report on the results of the first year of piloting organised mammography screening in two counties in Tyrol. Results: 56,432 women were invited. Estimated participation rate was 34.5% at one year of follow-up (and 55.5% at the second year of follow-up); 3.4% of screened women were recalled for further assessment or intermediate screening within six months. Per 1000 mammograms nine biopsies were performed and four breast cancer cases detected (N = 68). Of invasive breast cancer cases 34.4% were ≤ 10 mm in size and 65.6% were node-negative. In total, six interval cancer cases were detected during one year of follow-up; this is 19% of the background incidence rate. Conclusions: In the Tyrolean breast cancer screening program, a smooth transition from a spontaneous to an organised mammography screening system was achieved in a short time and with minimal additional resources. One year after introduction of the screening program, most of the quality indicators recommended by the European guidelines had been reached. However, it will be necessary to introduce double reading, to change the rule for BI-RADS 3, and to concentrate on actions toward improving the participation rate

Massive Abelian Gauge Symmetries and Fluxes in F-theory

F-theory compactified on a Calabi-Yau fourfold naturally describes non-Abelian gauge symmetries through the singularity structure of the elliptic fibration. In contrast Abelian symmetries are more difficult to study because of their inherently global nature. We argue that in general F-theory compactifications there are massive Abelian symmetries, such as the uplift of the Abelian part of the U(N) gauge group on D7-branes, that arise from non-Kahler resolutions of the dual M-theory setup. The four-dimensional F-theory vacuum with vanishing expectation values for the gauge fields corresponds to the Calabi-Yau limit. We propose that fluxes that are turned on along these U(1)s are uplifted to non-harmonic four-form fluxes. We derive the effective four-dimensional gauged supergravity resulting from F-theory compactifications in the presence of the Abelian gauge factors including the effects of possible fluxes on the gauging, tadpoles and matter spectrum.Comment: 49 page

Biodiversity Loss and the Taxonomic Bottleneck: Emerging Biodiversity Science

Human domination of the Earth has resulted in dramatic changes to global and local patterns of biodiversity. Biodiversity is critical to human sustainability because it drives the ecosystem services that provide the core of our life-support system. As we, the human species, are the primary factor leading to the decline in biodiversity, we need detailed information about the biodiversity and species composition of specific locations in order to understand how different species contribute to ecosystem services and how humans can sustainably conserve and manage biodiversity. Taxonomy and ecology, two fundamental sciences that generate the knowledge about biodiversity, are associated with a number of limitations that prevent them from providing the information needed to fully understand the relevance of biodiversity in its entirety for human sustainability: (1) biodiversity conservation strategies that tend to be overly focused on research and policy on a global scale with little impact on local biodiversity; (2) the small knowledge base of extant global biodiversity; (3) a lack of much-needed site-specific data on the species composition of communities in human-dominated landscapes, which hinders ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation; (4) biodiversity studies with a lack of taxonomic precision; (5) a lack of taxonomic expertise and trained taxonomists; (6) a taxonomic bottleneck in biodiversity inventory and assessment; and (7) neglect of taxonomic resources and a lack of taxonomic service infrastructure for biodiversity science. These limitations are directly related to contemporary trends in research, conservation strategies, environmental stewardship, environmental education, sustainable development, and local site-specific conservation. Today’s biological knowledge is built on the known global biodiversity, which represents barely 20% of what is currently extant (commonly accepted estimate of 10 million species) on planet Earth. Much remains unexplored and unknown, particularly in hotspots regions of Africa, South Eastern Asia, and South and Central America, including many developing or underdeveloped countries, where localized biodiversity is scarcely studied or described. ‘‘Backyard biodiversity’’, defined as local biodiversity near human habitation, refers to the natural resources and capital for ecosystem services at the grassroots level, which urgently needs to be explored, documented, and conserved as it is the backbone of sustainable economic development in these countries. Beginning with early identification and documentation of local flora and fauna, taxonomy has documented global biodiversity and natural history based on the collection of ‘‘backyard biodiversity’’ specimens worldwide. However, this branch of science suffered a continuous decline in the latter half of the twentieth century, and has now reached a point of potential demise. At present there are very few professional taxonomists and trained local parataxonomists worldwide, while the need for, and demands on, taxonomic services by conservation and resource management communities are rapidly increasing. Systematic collections, the material basis of biodiversity information, have been neglected and abandoned, particularly at institutions of higher learning. Considering the rapid increase in the human population and urbanization, human sustainability requires new conceptual and practical approaches to refocusing and energizing the study of the biodiversity that is the core of natural resources for sustainable development and biotic capital for sustaining our life-support system. In this paper we aim to document and extrapolate the essence of biodiversity, discuss the state and nature of taxonomic demise, the trends of recent biodiversity studies, and suggest reasonable approaches to a biodiversity science to facilitate the expansion of global biodiversity knowledge and to create useful data on backyard biodiversity worldwide towards human sustainability

An Open Access Database of Genome-wide Association Results

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is growing rapidly leading to the discovery and replication of many new disease loci. Combining results from multiple GWAS datasets may potentially strengthen previous conclusions and suggest new disease loci, pathways or pleiotropic genes. However, no database or centralized resource currently exists that contains anywhere near the full scope of GWAS results.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We collected available results from 118 GWAS articles into a database of 56,411 significant SNP-phenotype associations and accompanying information, making this database freely available here. In doing so, we met and describe here a number of challenges to creating an open access database of GWAS results. Through preliminary analyses and characterization of available GWAS, we demonstrate the potential to gain new insights by querying a database across GWAS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using a genomic bin-based density analysis to search for highly associated regions of the genome, positive control loci (e.g., MHC loci) were detected with high sensitivity. Likewise, an analysis of highly repeated SNPs across GWAS identified replicated loci (e.g., <it>APOE</it>, <it>LPL</it>). At the same time we identified novel, highly suggestive loci for a variety of traits that did not meet genome-wide significant thresholds in prior analyses, in some cases with strong support from the primary medical genetics literature (<it>SLC16A7, CSMD1, OAS1</it>), suggesting these genes merit further study. Additional adjustment for linkage disequilibrium within most regions with a high density of GWAS associations did not materially alter our findings. Having a centralized database with standardized gene annotation also allowed us to examine the representation of functional gene categories (gene ontologies) containing one or more associations among top GWAS results. Genes relating to cell adhesion functions were highly over-represented among significant associations (p < 4.6 × 10^-14), a finding which was not perturbed by a sensitivity analysis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We provide access to a full gene-annotated GWAS database which could be used for further querying, analyses or integration with other genomic information. We make a number of general observations. Of reported associated SNPs, 40% lie within the boundaries of a RefSeq gene and 68% are within 60 kb of one, indicating a bias toward gene-centricity in the findings. We found considerable heterogeneity in information available from GWAS suggesting the wider community could benefit from standardization and centralization of results reporting.</p

End of life care interventions for people with dementia in care homes : addressing uncertainty within a framework for service delivery and evaluation

© 2015 Goodman et al. Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise statedMethods: The data from three studies on EoL care in care homes: (i) EVIDEM EoL , (ii) EPOCH , and (iii) TTT EoL were used to inform the development of the framework. All used mixed method designs and two had an intervention designed to improve how care home staff provided end of life care. The EVIDEM EoL and EPOCH studies tracked the care of older people in care homes over a period of 12 months. The TTT study collected resource use data of care home residents for three months, and surveyed decedents' notes for ten months, Results: Across the three studies, 29 care homes, 528 residents, 205 care home staff, and 44 visiting health care professionals participated. Analysis of showed that end of life interventions for people with dementia were characterised by uncertainty in three key areas; what treatment is the 'right' treatment, who should do what and when, and in which setting EoL care should be delivered and by whom? These uncertainties are conceptualised as Treatment uncertainty, Relational uncertainty and Service uncertainty. This paper proposes an emergent framework to inform the development and evaluation of EoL care interventions in care homes. Conclusion: For people with dementia living and dying in care homes, EoL interventions need to provide strategies that can accommodate or "hold" the inevitable and often unresolvable uncertainties of providing and receiving care in these settingsPeer reviewe

QTLs for oil yield components in an elite oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cross

Increased modern farming of superior types of the oil palm, Elaeis guineensis Jacq., which has naturally efficient oil biosynthesis, has made it the world’s foremost edible oil crop. Breeding improvement is, however, circumscribed by time and costs associated with the tree’s long reproductive cycle, large size and 10–15 years of field testing. Marker-assisted breeding has considerable potential for improving this crop. Towards this, quantitative trait loci (QTL) linked to oil yield component traits were mapped in a high-yield population. In total, 164 QTLs associated with 21 oil yield component traits were discovered, with cumulative QTL effects increasing in tandem with the number of QTL markers and matching the QT+ alleles for each trait. The QTLs confirmed all traits to be polygenic, with many genes of individual small effects on independent loci, but epistatic interactions are not ruled out. Furthermore, several QTLs maybe pleiotropic as suggested by QTL clustering of inter-related traits on almost all linkage groups. Certain regions of the chromosomes seem richer in the genes affecting a particular yield component trait and likely encompass pleiotropic, epistatic and heterotic effects. A large proportion of the identified additive effects from QTLs may actually arise from genic interactions between loci. Comparisons with previous mapping studies show that most of the QTLs were for similar traits and shared similar marker intervals on the same linkage groups. Practical applications for such QTLs in marker-assisted breeding will require seeking them out in different genetic backgrounds and environments

Multiple and Multidimensional life transitions in the context of life-limiting health conditions:Longitudinal study focussing on perspectives of Young Adults, Families and Professionals

Background: There is a dearth of literature that investigates life transitions of young adults (YAs) with life-limiting conditions, families and professionals. The scant literature that is available has methodological limitations, including not listening to the voice of YAs, collecting data retrospectively, at one time point, from one group’s perspective and single case studies. The aim of this study was to address the gaps found in our literature review and provide a clearer understanding of the multiple and multi-dimensional life transitions experienced by YAs and significant others, over a period of time. Methods: This qualitative study used a longitudinal design and data were collected using semi-structured interviews over a 6-month period at 3 time points. Participants included 12 YAs with life-limiting conditions and their nominated significant others (10 family members and 11 professionals). Data were analysed using a thematic analysis approach. Results: Life transitions of YA and significant others are complex; they experience multiple and multi-dimensional transitions across several domains. The findings challenge the notion that all life transitions are triggered by health transitions of YAs, and has highlighted environmental factors (attitudinal and systemic) that can be changed to facilitate smoother transitions in various aspects of their lives. Conclusions: This study makes a unique and significant contribution to literature. It provides evidence and rich narratives for policy makers and service providers to change policies and practices that are in line with the needs of YAs with life-limiting conditions as they transition to adulthood. Families and professionals have specific training needs that have not yet been met fully