A bounds analysis of world food futures : global agriculture through to 2050

The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper-bound (highconsumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing-in additional forestdominated lands.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-84892016-10-31hb201

Quadriceps volumes are reduced in people with patellofemoral joint osteoarthritis

Objectives: This study aimed to (1) compare the volumes of vastus medialis (VM), vastus lateralis (VL), vastus intermedius and rectus femoris and the ratio of VM/VL volumes between asymptomatic controls and patellofemoral joint osteoarthritis (PFJ OA) participants; and (2) assess the relationships between cross-sectional area (CSA) and volumes of the VM and VL in individuals with and without PFJ OA. Methods: Twenty-two participants with PFJ OA and 11 controls aged ≥40 years were recruited from the community and practitioner referrals. Muscle volumes of individual quadriceps components were measured from thigh magnetic resonance (MR) images. The CSA of the VM and lateralis were measured at 10 equally distributed levels (femoral condyles to lesser femoral trochanter). Results: PFJ OA individuals had smaller normalized VM (mean difference 0.90 cm ·kg , α = 0.011), VL (1.50 cm ·kg , α = 0.012) and rectus femoris (0.71 cm ·kg , α = 0.009) volumes than controls. No differences in the VM/VL ratio were observed. The CSA at the third level (controls) and fourth level (PFJ OA) above the femoral condyles best predicted VM volume, whereas the VL volume was best predicted by the CSA at the seventh level (controls) and sixth level (PFJ OA) above the femoral condyles. Conclusion: Reduced quadriceps muscle volume was a feature of PFJ OA. Muscle volume could be predicted from CSA measurements at specific levels in PFJ OA patients and controls

Planck early results. VIII. The all-sky early Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster sample

We present the first all-sky sample of galaxy clusters detected blindly by the Planck satellite through the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect from its six highest frequencies. This early SZ (ESZ) sample is comprised of 189 candidates, which have a high signal-to-noise ratio ranging from 6 to 29. Its high reliability (purity above 95%) is further ensured by an extensive validation process based on Planck internal quality assessments and by external cross-identification and follow-up observations. Planck provides the first measured SZ signal for about 80% of the 169 previouslyknown ESZ clusters. Planck furthermore releases 30 new cluster candidates, amongst which 20 meet the ESZ signal-to-noise selection criterion. At the submission date, twelve of the 20 ESZ candidates were confirmed as new clusters, with eleven confirmed using XMM-Newton snapshot observations, most of them with disturbed morphologies and low luminosities. The ESZ clusters are mostly at moderate redshifts (86% with z below 0.3) and span more than a decade in mass, up to the rarest and most massive clusters with masses above 1 × 1015 M

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

SARS-CoV-2 infects the human kidney and drives fibrosis in kidney organoids

Kidney failure is frequently observed during and after COVID-19, but it remains elusive whether this is a direct effect of the virus. Here, we report that SARS-CoV-2 directly infects kidney cells and is associated with increased tubule-interstitial kidney fibrosis in patient autopsy samples. To study direct effects of the virus on the kidney independent of systemic effects of COVID-19, we infected human-induced pluripotent stem-cell-derived kidney organoids with SARS-CoV-2. Single-cell RNA sequencing indicated injury and dedifferentiation of infected cells with activation of profibrotic signaling pathways. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2 infection also led to increased collagen 1 protein expression in organoids. A SARS-CoV-2 protease inhibitor was able to ameliorate the infection of kidney cells by SARS-CoV-2. Our results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 can directly infect kidney cells and induce cell injury with subsequent fibrosis. These data could explain both acute kidney injury in COVID-19 patients and the development of chronic kidney disease in long COVID

A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050

The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feed stocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper-bound (high consumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing-in additional forest dominated lands