Human biomarkers: can they help us to develop a new tuberculosis vaccine?

The most effective intervention for the control of infectious disease is vaccination. The BCG vaccine, the only licensed vaccine for the prevention of tuberculosis (TB) disease, is only partially effective and a new vaccine is urgently needed. Biomarkers can aid the development of new TB vaccines through discovery of immune mechanisms, early assessment of vaccine immunogenicity or vaccine take and identification of those at greatest risk of disease progression for recruitment into smaller, targeted efficacy trials. The ultimate goal, however, remains a biomarker of TB vaccine efficacy that can be used as a surrogate for a TB disease end point and there remains an urgent need for further research in this area

Boundary-crossing identities for diffusions having the time-inversion property

We review and study a one-parameter family of functional transformations, denoted by (S (β)) β∈ℝ, which, in the case β<0, provides a path realization of bridges associated to the family of diffusion processes enjoying the time-inversion property. This family includes Brownian motions, Bessel processes with a positive dimension and their conservative h-transforms. By means of these transformations, we derive an explicit and simple expression which relates the law of the boundary-crossing times for these diffusions over a given function f to those over the image of f by the mapping S (β), for some fixed β∈ℝ. We give some new examples of boundary-crossing problems for the Brownian motion and the family of Bessel processes. We also provide, in the Brownian case, an interpretation of the results obtained by the standard method of images and establish connections between the exact asymptotics for large time of the densities corresponding to various curves of each family

Tuberculosis screening of travelers to higher-incidence countries: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract Background Travelers to countries with high tuberculosis incidence can acquire infection during travel. We sought to compare four screening interventions for travelers from low-incidence countries, who visit countries with varying tuberculosis incidence. Methods Decision analysis model: We considered hypothetical cohorts of 1,000 travelers, 21 years old, visiting Mexico, the Dominican Republic, or Haiti for three months. Travelers departed from and returned to the United States or Canada; they were born in the United States, Canada, or the destination countries. The time horizon was 20 years, with 3% annual discounting of future costs and outcomes. The analysis was conducted from the health care system perspective. Screening involved tuberculin skin testing (post-travel in three strategies, with baseline pre-travel tests in two), or chest radiography post-travel (one strategy). Returning travelers with tuberculin conversion (one strategy) or other evidence of latent tuberculosis (three strategies) were offered treatment. The main outcome was cost (in 2005 US dollars) per tuberculosis case prevented. Results For all travelers, a single post-trip tuberculin test was most cost-effective. The associated cost estimate per case prevented ranged from $21,406 for Haitian-born travelers to Haiti, to$161,196 for US-born travelers to Mexico. In all sensitivity analyses, the single post-trip tuberculin test remained most cost-effective. For US-born travelers to Haiti, this strategy was associated with cost savings for trips over 22 months. Screening was more cost-effective with increasing trip duration and infection risk, and less so with poorer treatment adherence. Conclusion A single post-trip tuberculin skin test was the most cost-effective strategy considered, for travelers from the United States or Canada. The analysis did not evaluate the use of interferon-gamma release assays, which would be most relevant for travelers who received BCG vaccination after infancy, as in many European countries. Screening decisions should reflect duration of travel, tuberculosis incidence, and commitment to treat latent infection.</p

Poor concordance between interferon-γ release assays and tuberculin skin tests in diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection among HIV-infected individuals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A new generation of diagnostic tests, the interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs), have been developed for the detection of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Limited data are available on their use in HIV-infected persons.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was carried out at 2 HIV clinics in Atlanta to assess the utility of two IGRA tests (T-SPOT.TB [TSPOT] and QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube [QFT-3G]) compared to the tuberculin skin test (TST).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>336 HIV-infected persons were enrolled. Median CD4 count was 335 cells/μl and median HIV viral load was 400 copies/ml. Overall, 27 patients (8.0%) had at least 1 positive diagnostic test for LTBI: 7 (2.1%) had a positive TST; 9 (2.7%) a positive QFT-3G; and 14 (4.2%) a positive TSPOT. Agreement between the 3 diagnostic tests was poor: TST and TSPOT, [κ = 0.16, 95% CI (-0.06, 0.39)], TST and QFT-3G [κ = 0.23, 95% CI (-0.05, 0.51)], QFT-3G and TSPOT [κ = 0.06, 95% CI (-0.1, 0.2)]. An indeterminate test result occurred among 6 (1.8%) of QFT-3G and 47 (14%) of TSPOT tests. In multivariate analysis, patients with a CD4 ≤ 200 cells/μl were significantly more likely to have an indeterminate result [OR = 3.6, 95% CI (1.9, 6.8)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found a low prevalence of LTBI and poor concordance between all 3 diagnostic tests. Indeterminate test results were more likely at CD4 counts ≤ 200 cells/μl. Additional studies among HIV-infected populations with a high prevalence of TB are needed to further assess the utility of IGRAs in this patient population.</p

The Tuberculin Skin Test versus QuantiFERON TB Gold® in Predicting Tuberculosis Disease in an Adolescent Cohort Study in South Africa

Setting: This study was conducted in a high tuberculosis (TB) burden area in Worcester, South Africa, with a notified all TB incidence rate of 1,400/100,000. Main Objective: To compare the predictive value of a baseline tuberculin skin test (TST) with that of the QuantiFERON TB Gold (In-tube) assay (QFT) for subsequent microbiologically confirmed TB disease among adolescents. Methods: Adolescents aged 12-18 years were recruited from high schools in the study area. At baseline, blood was drawn for QFT and a TST administered. Participants were followed up for up to 3.8 years for incident TB disease (median 2.4 years). Results: After exclusions, 5244 (82.4%) of 6,363 adolescents enrolled, were analysed. The TB incidence rate was 0.60 cases per 100 person years (pyrs) (95% CI 0.43-0.82) for baseline TST positive (>= 5 mm) participants and 0.64 cases per 100 pyrs (95% CI 0.45-0.87) for baseline QFT positive participants. TB incidence rates were 0.22 per 100 pyrs (0.11-0.39) and 0.22 per 100 pyrs (0.12-0.38) among those with a negative baseline TST and QFT respectively. Sensitivity for incident TB disease was 76.9% for TST and 75.0% for QFT (p = 0.81). Positive predictive value was 1.4% for TST and 1.5% for QFT. Conclusion: Positive TST and QFT tests were moderately sensitive predictors of progression to microbiologically confirmed TB disease. There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of these tests for TB disease amongst adolescents in this high burden setting. Therefore, these findings do not support use of QFT in preference to TST to predict the risk of TB disease in this study populatio

Evidence for waning of latency in a cohort study of tuberculosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To investigate how the risk of active tuberculosis disease is influenced by time since original infection and to determine whether the risk of reactivation of tuberculosis increases or decreases with age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cohort analysis of data for the separate ten year birth cohorts of 1876-1885 to 1959-1968 obtained from Statistics Norway and the National Tuberculosis Registry. These data were used to calculate the rates and the changes in the rates of bacillary (or active) tuberculosis. Data on bacillary tuberculosis for adult (20+) age groups were obtained from the National Tuberculosis Registry and Statistics Norway from 1946 to 1974. Most cases during this period arose due to reactivation of remote infection. Participants in this part of the analysis were all reported active tuberculosis cases in Norway from 1946 to 1974 as recorded in the National Tuberculosis Registry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Tuberculosis decreased at a relatively steady rate when following individual birth cohorts, but with a tendency of slower decline as time passed since infection. A mean estimate of this rate of decline was 57% in a 10 year period.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The risk of reactivation of latent tuberculosis decreases with age. This decline may reflect the rate at which latent tuberculosis is eliminated from a population with minimal transmission of tubercle bacilli. A model for risk of developing active tuberculosis as a function of time since infection shows that the rate at which tuberculosis can be eliminated from a society can be quite substantial if new infections are effectively prevented. The findings clearly indicate that preventative measures against transmission of tuberculosis will be the most effective. These results also suggest that the total population harbouring live tubercle bacilli and consequently the future projection for increased incidence of tuberculosis in the world is probably overestimated.</p

Impact of DOTS expansion on tuberculosis related outcomes and costs in Haiti

BACKGROUND: Implementation of the World Health Organization's DOTS strategy (Directly Observed Treatment Short-course therapy) can result in significant reduction in tuberculosis incidence. We estimated potential costs and benefits of DOTS expansion in Haiti from the government, and societal perspectives. METHODS: Using decision analysis incorporating multiple Markov processes (Markov modelling), we compared expected tuberculosis morbidity, mortality and costs in Haiti with DOTS expansion to reach all of the country, and achieve WHO benchmarks, or if the current situation did not change. Probabilities of tuberculosis related outcomes were derived from the published literature. Government health expenditures, patient and family costs were measured in direct surveys in Haiti and expressed in 2003 US$. RESULTS: Starting in 2003, DOTS expansion in Haiti is anticipated to cost$4.2 million and result in 63,080 fewer tuberculosis cases, 53,120 fewer tuberculosis deaths, and net societal savings of $131 million, over 20 years. Current government spending for tuberculosis is high, relative to the per capita income, and would be only slightly lower with DOTS. Societal savings would begin within 4 years, and would be substantial in all scenarios considered, including higher HIV seroprevalence or drug resistance, unchanged incidence following DOTS expansion, or doubling of initial and ongoing costs for DOTS expansion. CONCLUSION: A modest investment for DOTS expansion in Haiti would provide considerable humanitarian benefit by reducing tuberculosis-related morbidity, mortality and costs for patients and their families. These benefits, together with projected minimal Haitian government savings, argue strongly for donor support for DOTS expansion

Incidence of tuberculosis and the predictive value of ELISPOT and Mantoux tests in Gambian case contacts.

BACKGROUND: Studies of Tuberculosis (TB) case contacts are increasingly being utilised for understanding the relationship between M. tuberculosis and the human host and for assessing new interventions and diagnostic tests. We aimed to identify the incidence rate of new TB cases among TB contacts and to relate this to their initial Mantoux and ELISPOT test results. METHODS AND FINDINGS: After initial Mantoux and ELISPOT tests and exclusion of co-prevalent TB cases, we followed 2348 household contacts of sputum smear positive TB cases. We visited them at 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and 24 months, and investigated those with symptoms consistent with TB. Those who were diagnosed separately at a government clinic had a chest x-ray. Twenty six contacts were diagnosed with definite TB over 4312 person years of follow-up (Incidence rate 603/100,000 person years; 95% Confidence Interval, 370-830). Nine index and secondary case pairs had cultured isolates available for genotyping. Of these, 6 pairs were concordant and 3 were discordant. 2.5% of non-progressors were HIV positive compared to 12% of progressors (HR 6.2; 95% CI 1.7-22.5; p = 0.010). 25 secondary cases had initial Mantoux results, 14 (56%) were positive ; 21 had initial ELISPOT results, 11 (52%) were positive; 15 (71%) of 21 tested were positive by one or the other test. Of the 6 contacts who had concordant isolates with their respective index case, 4 (67%) were Mantoux positive at recruitment, 3 (50%) were ELISPOT positive; 5 (83%) were positive by one or other of the two tests. ELISPOT positive contacts, and those with discordant results, had a similar rate of progression to those who were Mantoux positive. Those negative on either or both tests had the lowest rate of progression. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of TB disease in Gambian TB case contacts, after screening for co-prevalent cases, was 603/100,000 person years. Since initial ELISPOT test and Mantoux tests were each positive in only just over half of cases, but 71% were positive by one or other test, positivity by either might be the best indication for preventive treatment. These data do not support the replacement of the Mantoux test by an ELISPOT test in The Gambia or similar settings