The role of demographic change in explaining the growth of Australia's older migrant population living with dementia, 2016–2051

Objective: To examine the demographic drivers contributing to the future growth in the population of older migrants in Australia living with dementia. Methods: Using birthplace-specific cohort-component projection models, we projected the number of older migrants living with dementia. ABS data on births, deaths, migration and birthplace were used, alongside Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) estimates of dementia prevalence with birthplace dementia weights calculated from administrative data. Results: The number of older migrants living with dementia is projected to increase from about 134,423 in 2016 to 378,724 by 2051. Increases in populations with dementia varied considerably, from a slight decrease for those born in Southern & Eastern Europe to over 600% increases amongst the South-East Asia, Southern & Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa-born populations. Conclusions: Cohort flow is the primary driver increasing the number of older migrants living with dementia. This growth is largely inevitable because the cohorts are already living in Australia as part of the migrant population, but currently at ages below 60 years. Implications for public health: High relative growth and shifting birthplace composition in the number of migrants living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health care access and workforce needs to support migrant families, carers and their communities

Practical recommendations for the evaluation of improvement initiatives

Abstract A lack of clear guidance for funders, evaluators and improvers on what to include in evaluation proposals can lead to evaluation designs that do not answer the questions stakeholders want to know. These evaluation designs may not match the iterative nature of improvement and may be imposed onto an initiative in a way that is impractical from the perspective of improvers and the communities with whom they work. Consequently, the results of evaluations are often controversial, and attribution remains poorly understood. Improvement initiatives are iterative, adaptive and context-specific. Evaluation approaches and designs must align with these features, specifically in their ability to consider complexity, to evolve as the initiative adapts over time and to understand the interaction with local context. Improvement initiatives often identify broadly defined change concepts and provide tools for care teams to tailor these in more detail to local conditions. Correspondingly, recommendations for evaluation are best provided as broad guidance, to be tailored to the specifics of the initiative. In this paper, we provide practical guidance and recommendations that funders and evaluators can use when developing an evaluation plan for improvement initiatives that seeks to: identify the questions stakeholders want to address; develop the initial program theory of the initiative; identify high-priority areas to measure progress over time; describe the context the initiative will be applied within; and identify experimental or observational designs that will address attribution

Practical recommendations for the evaluation of improvement initiatives

Abstract A lack of clear guidance for funders, evaluators and improvers on what to include in evaluation proposals can lead to evaluation designs that do not answer the questions stakeholders want to know. These evaluation designs may not match the iterative nature of improvement and may be imposed onto an initiative in a way that is impractical from the perspective of improvers and the communities with whom they work. Consequently, the results of evaluations are often controversial, and attribution remains poorly understood. Improvement initiatives are iterative, adaptive and context-specific. Evaluation approaches and designs must align with these features, specifically in their ability to consider complexity, to evolve as the initiative adapts over time and to understand the interaction with local context. Improvement initiatives often identify broadly defined change concepts and provide tools for care teams to tailor these in more detail to local conditions. Correspondingly, recommendations for evaluation are best provided as broad guidance, to be tailored to the specifics of the initiative. In this paper, we provide practical guidance and recommendations that funders and evaluators can use when developing an evaluation plan for improvement initiatives that seeks to: identify the questions stakeholders want to address; develop the initial program theory of the initiative; identify high-priority areas to measure progress over time; describe the context the initiative will be applied within; and identify experimental or observational designs that will address attribution

Let's CHAT (community health approaches to) dementia in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities: protocol for a stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: Documented rates of dementia and cognitive impairment not dementia (CIND) in older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples is 3–5 times higher than the rest of the population, and current evidence suggests this condition is under-diagnosed and under-managed in a clinical primary care setting. This study aims to implement and evaluate a culturally responsive best practice model of care to optimise the detection and management of people with cognitive impairment and/or dementia, and to improve the quality of life of carers and older Aboriginal and Torres Islander Peoples with cognitive impairment. Methods/design: The prospective study will use a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial design working with 12 Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services (ACCHSs) across four states of Australia. Utilising a co-design approach, health system adaptations will be implemented including (i) development of a best practice guide for cognitive impairment and dementia in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities (ii) education programs for health professionals supported by local champions and (iii) development of decision support systems for local medical software. In addition, the study will utilise a knowledge translation framework, the Integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (iPARIHS) Framework, to promote long-term sustainable practice change. Process evaluation will also be undertaken to measure the quality, fidelity and contextual influences on the outcomes of the implementation. The primary outcome measures will be rates of documentation of dementia and CIND, and evidence of improved management of dementia and CIND among older Indigenous peoples attending Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander primary care services through health system changes. The secondary outcomes will be improvements to the quality of life of older Indigenous peoples with dementia and CIND, as well as that of their carers and families. Discussion: The Let’s CHAT Dementia project will co-design, implement and evaluate a culturally responsive best practice model of care embedded within current Indigenous primary health care. The best practice model of care has the potential to optimise the timely detection (especially in the early stages) and improve the ongoing management of people with dementia or cognitive impairmentKate Bradley, Robyn Smith, Jo-anne Hughson, David Atkinson, Dawn Bessarab, Leon Flicker ... et al

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Experimental Evidence for Reduced Rodent Diversity Causing Increased Hantavirus Prevalence

Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases have become a major global environmental problem with important public health, economic, and political consequences. The etiologic agents of most emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, and anthropogenic environmental changes that affect wildlife communities are increasingly implicated in disease emergence and spread. Although increased disease incidence has been correlated with biodiversity loss for several zoonoses, experimental tests in these systems are lacking. We manipulated small-mammal biodiversity by removing non-reservoir species in replicated field plots in Panama, where zoonotic hantaviruses are endemic. Both infection prevalence of hantaviruses in wild reservoir (rodent) populations and reservoir population density increased where small-mammal species diversity was reduced. Regardless of other variables that affect the prevalence of directly transmitted infections in natural communities, high biodiversity is important in reducing transmission of zoonotic pathogens among wildlife hosts. Our results have wide applications in both conservation biology and infectious disease management

Stress induced polarization of immune-neuroendocrine phenotypes in Gallus gallus

Immune-neuroendocrine phenotypes (INPs) stand for population subgroups differing in immune-neuroendocrine interactions. While mammalian INPs have been characterized thoroughly in rats and humans, avian INPs were only recently described in Coturnix coturnix (quail). To assess the scope of this biological phenomenon, herein we characterized INPs in Gallus gallus (a domestic hen strain submitted to a very long history of strong selective breeding pressure) and evaluated whether a social chronic stress challenge modulates the individuals’ interplay affecting the INP subsets and distribution. Evaluating plasmatic basal corticosterone, interferon-γ and interleukin-4 concentrations, innate/acquired leukocyte ratio, PHA-P skin-swelling and induced antibody responses, two opposite INP profiles were found: LEWIS-like (15% of the population) and FISCHER-like (16%) hens. After chronic stress, an increment of about 12% in each polarized INP frequency was found at expenses of a reduction in the number of birds with intermediate responses. Results show that polarized INPs are also a phenomenon occurring in hens. The observed inter-individual variation suggest that, even after a considerable selection process, the population is still well prepared to deal with a variety of immune-neuroendocrine challenges. Stress promoted disruptive effects, leading to a more balanced INPs distribution, which represents a new substrate for challenging situations.Fil: Nazar, Franco Nicolas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Estevez, Inma. Centro de Investigación. Neiker - Tecnalia; EspañaFil: Correa, Silvia Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunología; ArgentinaFil: Marin, Raul Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentin

Increased Avian Diversity Is Associated with Lower Incidence of Human West Nile Infection: Observation of the Dilution Effect

Recent infectious disease models illustrate a suite of mechanisms that can result in lower incidence of disease in areas of higher disease host diversity–the ‘dilution effect’. These models are particularly applicable to human zoonoses, which are infectious diseases of wildlife that spill over into human populations. As many recent emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, the mechanisms that underlie the ‘dilution effect’ are potentially widely applicable and could contribute greatly to our understanding of a suite of diseases. The dilution effect has largely been observed in the context of Lyme disease and the predictions of the underlying models have rarely been examined for other infectious diseases on a broad geographic scale. Here, we explored whether the dilution effect can be observed in the relationship between the incidence of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection and bird (host) diversity in the eastern US. We constructed a novel geospatial contrasts analysis that compares the small differences in avian diversity of neighboring US counties (where one county reported human cases of WNV and the other reported no cases) with associated between-county differences in human disease. We also controlled for confounding factors of climate, regional variation in mosquito vector type, urbanization, and human socioeconomic factors that are all likely to affect human disease incidence. We found there is lower incidence of human WNV in eastern US counties that have greater avian (viral host) diversity. This pattern exists when examining diversity-disease relationships both before WNV reached the US (in 1998) and once the epidemic was underway (in 2002). The robust disease-diversity relationships confirm that the dilution effect can be observed in another emerging infectious disease and illustrate an important ecosystem service provided by biodiversity, further supporting the growing view that protecting biodiversity should be considered in public health and safety plans

Fine-Scale Phylogeographic Structure of Borrelia lusitaniae Revealed by Multilocus Sequence Typing

Borrelia lusitaniae is an Old World species of the Lyme borreliosis (LB) group of tick-borne spirochetes and prevails mainly in countries around the Mediterranean Basin. Lizards of the family Lacertidae have been identified as reservoir hosts of B. lusitaniae. These reptiles are highly structured geographically, indicating limited migration. In order to examine whether host geographic structure shapes the evolution and epidemiology of B. lusitaniae, we analyzed the phylogeographic population structure of this tick-borne bacterium using a recently developed multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme based on chromosomal housekeeping genes. A total of 2,099 questing nymphal and adult Ixodes ricinus ticks were collected in two climatically different regions of Portugal, being ∼130 km apart. All ticks were screened for spirochetes by direct PCR. Attempts to isolate strains yielded 16 cultures of B. lusitaniae in total. Uncontaminated cultures as well as infected ticks were included in this study. The results using MLST show that the regional B. lusitaniae populations constitute genetically distinct populations. In contrast, no clear phylogeographic signals were detected in sequences of the commonly used molecular markers ospA and ospC. The pronounced population structure of B. lusitaniae over a short geographic distance as captured by MLST of the housekeeping genes suggests that the migration rates of B. lusitaniae are rather low, most likely because the distribution of mediterranean lizard populations is highly parapatric. The study underlines the importance of vertebrate hosts in the geographic spread of tick-borne microparasites

Modelling Transmission of Vector-Borne Pathogens Shows Complex Dynamics When Vector Feeding Sites Are Limited

The relationship between species richness and the prevalence of vector-borne disease has been widely studied with a range of outcomes. Increasing the number of host species for a pathogen may decrease infection prevalence (dilution effect), increase it (amplification), or have no effect. We derive a general model, and a specific implementation, which show that when the number of vector feeding sites on each host is limiting, the effects on pathogen dynamics of host population size are more complex than previously thought. The model examines vector-borne disease in the presence of different host species that are either competent or incompetent (i.e. that cannot transmit the pathogen to vectors) as reservoirs for the pathogen. With a single host species present, the basic reproduction ratio R0 is a non-monotonic function of the population size of host individuals (H), i.e. a value exists that maximises R0. Surprisingly, if a reduction in host population size may actually increase R0. Extending this model to a two-host species system, incompetent individuals from the second host species can alter the value of which may reverse the effect on pathogen prevalence of host population reduction. We argue that when vector-feeding sites on hosts are limiting, the net effect of increasing host diversity might not be correctly predicted using simple frequency-dependent epidemiological models