An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Four-Parameter white blood cell differential counting based on light scattering measurements

Measurement of the depolarized orthogonal light scattering in flow cytometry enables one to discriminate human eosinephilic granulocytes from neutrophilic granulocytes. We use this method to perform a four-parameter differential white blood cell analysis. \ud A simple flow cytometer was built equipped with a 5-mW helium neon laser that measures simultaneously four light scattering parameters. Lymphocytes, monocytes, and granulocytes were identified by simultaneously measuring the light scattering intensity at angles between 1.0° and 2.6° and angles between 3.0° and 11.0°. Eosinophilic granulocytes were distinguished from neutrophilic granulocytes by simultaneous measurement of the orthogonal and depolarized orthogonal light scattering. \ud Comparison of a white blood cell differentiation of 45 donors obtained by the Technicon H-6000 and our instrument revealed good correlations. The correlation coefficients (r2) found were: 0.99 for lymphocytes, 0.76 for monocytes, 0.99 for neutrophilic granulocytes, and 0.98 for eosinophilic granulocytes. The results demonstrate that reliable white blood cell differentiation of the four most clinically relevant leukocytes can be obtained by measurement of light scattering properties of unstained leukocytes

The application of GIS based decision-tree models for generating the spatial distribution of hydromorphic organic landscapes in relation to digital terrain data

Accurate information about organic/mineral soil occurrence is a prerequisite for many land resources management applications (including climate change mitigation). This paper aims at investigating the potential of using geomorphometrical analysis and decision tree modeling to predict the geographic distribution of hydromorphic organic landscapes in unsampled area in Denmark. Nine primary (elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, tangent curvature, flow direction, flow accumulation, and specific catchment area) and one secondary (steady-state topographic wetness index) topographic parameters were generated from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) acquired using airborne LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) systems. They were used along with existing digital data collected from other sources (soil type, geological substrate and landscape type) to explain organic/mineral field measurements in hydromorphic landscapes of the Danish area chosen. A large number of tree-based classification models (186) were developed using (1) all of the parameters, (2) the primary DEM-derived topographic (morphological/hydrological) parameters only, (3) selected pairs of parameters and (4) excluding each parameter one at a time from the potential pool of predictor parameters. The best classification tree model (with the lowest misclassification error and the smallest number of terminal nodes and predictor parameters) combined the steady-state topographic wetness index and soil type, and explained 68% of the variability in organic/mineral field measurements. The overall accuracy of the predictive organic/inorganic landscapes' map produced (at 1:50 000 cartographic scale) using the best tree was estimated to be ca. 75%. The proposed classification-tree model is relatively simple, quick, realistic and practical, and it can be applied to other areas, thereby providing a tool to facilitate the implementation of pedological/hydrological plans for conservation and sustainable management. It is particularly useful when information about soil properties from conventional field surveys is limited

The paradox of being a woman teacher

In this article I follow genealogical lines of analysis in an attempt to map the different discourses and practices that interweave women’s position in education today. I have theorised education as a nexus of created paradoxical spaces, where the female self has attempted to surpass closed boundaries and to question the dichotomy of the feminised private and/or the masculine public. I have also considered the importance of time restrictions upon women’s lives and have paid attention to the multifarious ways these lives are highly structured by specific space/time regulations. The genealogical cartography I have drawn, depicts various positions, where the female self has created parodic unities and temporary coalitions. Finally in tracing exit points that education has offered women, I have considered some of the implications of feminist theories for the subversion of the various dilemmas and dichotomies the female subject has lived through

Estimating the economic benefits of wind energy projects using NREL's JEDI model with Monte Carlo simulation: Coconino and Navajo County, Arizona: Working paper series--06-04

A process was developed to evaluate the county-level economic benefits from constructing and operating a wind energy project. Specifically, an economic input/output analysis was used in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation to determine the economic impacts. Two northern-Arizona counties, Coconino County and Navajo County, were analyzed to demonstrate the process. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Jobs, Economic Development, and Impacts (JEDI) model is used to estimate the economic benefits generated by both the construction phase and the operations and maintenance (O&M) phase of a wind energy project. As there is uncertainty in some of the required input parameters, Monte Carlo simulation allows the input parameters to be entered as a range. The results of the JEDI model with Monte Carlo simulation analysis produce a distribution for: Jobs during construction; Jobs during the O&M phase; Earnings during the construction phase; Annual Earnings during the O&M phase; Economic activity during the construction phase; Annual Economic Activity during the O&M phase. In addition to these results, a sensitivity analysis was performed and indicated that the input parameters of construction cost, annual operating cost, local share percentage for construction, and local share percentage for high-voltage substation/interconnection affect the results from the JEDI model most significantly and effort should be spent carefully estimating these input parameters

SIGAME simulations of the [CII], [OI] and [OIII] line emission from star forming galaxies at z ~ 6

Of the almost 40 star forming galaxies at z>~5 (not counting QSOs) observed in [CII] to date, nearly half are either very faint in [CII], or not detected at all, and fall well below expectations based on locally derived relations between star formation rate (SFR) and [CII] luminosity. Combining cosmological zoom simulations of galaxies with SIGAME (SImulator of GAlaxy Millimeter/submillimeter Emission) we have modeled the multi-phased interstellar medium (ISM) and its emission in [CII], [OI] and [OIII], from 30 main sequence galaxies at z~6 with star formation rates ~3-23Msun/yr, stellar masses ~(0.7-8)x10^9Msun, and metallicities ~(0.1-0.4)xZsun. The simulations are able to reproduce the aforementioned [CII]-faintness at z>5, match two of the three existing z>~5 detections of [OIII], and are furthermore roughly consistent with the [OI] and [OIII] luminosity relations with SFR observed for local starburst galaxies. We find that the [CII] emission is dominated by the diffuse ionized gas phase and molecular clouds, which on average contribute ~66% and ~27%, respectively. The molecular gas, which constitutes only ~10% of the total gas mass is thus a more efficient emitter of [CII] than the ionized gas making up ~85% of the total gas mass. A principal component analysis shows that the [CII] luminosity correlates with the star formation activity as well as average metallicity. The low metallicities of our simulations together with their low molecular gas mass fractions can account for their [CII]-faintness, and we suggest these factors may also be responsible for the [CII]-faint normal galaxies observed at these early epochs.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa