Estimating the economic benefits of wind energy projects using NREL's JEDI model with Monte Carlo simulation: Coconino and Navajo County, Arizona: Working paper series--06-04

Abstract

A process was developed to evaluate the county-level economic benefits from constructing and operating a wind energy project. Specifically, an economic input/output analysis was used in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation to determine the economic impacts. Two northern-Arizona counties, Coconino County and Navajo County, were analyzed to demonstrate the process. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Jobs, Economic Development, and Impacts (JEDI) model is used to estimate the economic benefits generated by both the construction phase and the operations and maintenance (O&M) phase of a wind energy project. As there is uncertainty in some of the required input parameters, Monte Carlo simulation allows the input parameters to be entered as a range. The results of the JEDI model with Monte Carlo simulation analysis produce a distribution for: Jobs during construction; Jobs during the O&M phase; Earnings during the construction phase; Annual Earnings during the O&M phase; Economic activity during the construction phase; Annual Economic Activity during the O&M phase. In addition to these results, a sensitivity analysis was performed and indicated that the input parameters of construction cost, annual operating cost, local share percentage for construction, and local share percentage for high-voltage substation/interconnection affect the results from the JEDI model most significantly and effort should be spent carefully estimating these input parameters