Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Linking Demand with Supply for Tropical Forage Genetic Resources to Reach Impact at Scale

Over the last decades a wealth of information on tropical forage genetic resources has been collated and is accessible to users ranging from farmers, development practitioners and researchers to decision makers and academia, e.g. through online tools such as Tropical Forages: An interactive selection tool (www.tropicalforages.info). However, while genetic diversity is being conserved by international gene banks, adoption of improved tropical forages is still far from reaching its full potential. Major bottlenecks in our view include lack of awareness of available forage genetic resources, confirmation of adaptation in a wide range of bio-physical, socio-economic, political and cultural contexts and functionality of financing, extension and seed supply systems. This paper discusses the potential for adoption of tropical forages in the context of new opportunities by market driven innovation, and presents early successes using as examples improved Urochloa spp., Megathyrsus maximus and other grass and legume germplasm, while describing possible pathways to go to scale with small and medium size livestock producers. We use examples of approaches from the tropical Americas, tropical Africa and tropical Asia, including partnerships with the private sector in diverse market environments (e.g. Africa and Latin America) and network approaches (Asia)

Seed systems smallholder farmers use

Seed can be an important entry point for promoting productivity, nutrition and resilience among smallholder farmers. While investments have primarily focused on strengthening the formal sector, this article documents the degree to which the informal sector remains the core for seed acquisition, especially in Africa. Conclusions drawn from a uniquely comprehensive data set, 9660 observations across six countries and covering 40 crops, show that farmers access 90.2 % of their seed from informal systems with 50.9 % of that deriving from local markets. Further, 55 % of seed is paid for by cash, indicating that smallholders are already making important investments in this arena. Targeted interventions are proposed for rendering formal and informal seed sector more smallholder-responsive and for scaling up positive impacts

Climate-informed priorities for One CGIAR Regional Integrated Initiatives

This report summarizes a rapid assessment of climate-related challenges to food-, land- and water- systems across the six CGIAR regions. Based on the evidence, priority geographies and systems are proposed which provide a starting point for the Regional Initiatives design process. It then assesses the readiness of the Two Degree Initiative (2DI) regional challenges for their fit to the challenges, and potential to form the basis for developing the first batch of Regional Integrated Initiatives

GMOs: Non-Health Issues

The controversy over genetically modified [GM] organisms is often framed in terms of possible hazards for human health. Articles in a previous volume of this *Encyclopedia* give a general overview of GM crops [@Mulvaney2014] and specifically examine human health [@Nordgard2014] and labeling [@Bruton2014] issues surrounding GM organisms. This article explores several other aspects of the controversy: environmental concerns, political and legal disputes, and the aim of "feeding the world" and promoting food security. Rather than discussing abstract, hypothetical GM organisms, this article explores the consequences of the GM organisms that have actually been deployed in the particular contexts that they have been deployed, on the belief that there is little point in discussing GM organisms in an idealized or context-independent way

Agricultural Investments and Hunger in Africa Modelling Potential Contributions to SDG 2 - Zero Hunger

We use IFPRI’s IMPACT framework of linked biophysical and structural economic models to examine developments in global agricultural production systems, climate change, and food security. Building on related work on how increased investment in agricultural research, resource management, and infrastructure can address the challenges of meeting future food demand, we explore the costs and implications of these investments for reducing hunger in Africa by 2030. This analysis is coupled with a new investment estimation model, based on the perpetual inventory methodology (PIM), which allows for a better assessment of the costs of achieving projected agricultural improvements. We find that climate change will continue to slow projected reductions in hunger in the coming decades—increasing the number of people at risk of hunger in 2030 by 16 million in Africa compared to a scenario without climate change. Investments to increase agricultural productivity can offset the adverse impacts of climate change and help reduce the share of people at risk of hunger in 2030 to five percent or less in Northern, Western, and Southern Africa, but the share is projected to remain at ten percent or more in Eastern and Central Africa. Investments in Africa to achieve these results are estimated to cost about 15 billion USD per year between 2015 and 2030, as part of a larger package of investments costing around 52 billion USD in developing countries