The state of the upper mantle beneath Southern Africa

We present a new upper mantle seismic model for southern Africa based on the fitting of a large (3622 waveforms) multi-mode surface wave data set with propagation paths significantly shorter (≤ 6000 km) than those in globally-derived surface wave models. The seismic lithosphere beneath the cratonic region of southern Africa in this model is about 175 ± 25 km thick, consistent with other recent surface wave models, but significantly thinner than indicated by teleseismic body-wave tomography. We determine the in situ geotherm from kimberlite nodules from beneath the same region and find the thermal lithosphere model that best fits the nodule data has a mechanical boundary layer thickness of 186 km and a thermal lithosphere thickness of 204 km, in very good agreement with the seismic measurement. The shear wave velocity determined from analyzes of the kimberlite nodule compositions agree with the seismic shear wave velocity to a depth of not, vert, similar150 km. However, the shear wave velocity decrease at the base of the lid seen in the seismic model does not correspond to a change in mineralogy. Recent experimental studies of the shear wave velocity in olivine as a function of temperature and period of oscillation demonstrate that this wave speed decrease can result from grain boundary relaxation at high temperatures at the period of seismic waves. This decrease in velocity occurs where the mantle temperature is close to the melting temperature (within not, vert, similar100 °C)

Frequency-dependent Lg attenuation in the Indian Platform

We use seismograms from regional earthquakes recorded on digital seismographs in peninsular India to determine the frequency-dependent Q of Lg for the Indian platform. We measure Lg attenuation by determining the decay of spectral amplitudes with distance. The available data suggest some spatial variation in attenuation but a much denser ray-path coverage would be required to validate such observations. We, therefore, combine all the measurements of overlapping regions that span both the shield and intervening terranes to obtain an average value of attenuation for the Indian platform: Lg–Q = 665 ± 10 with the frequency exponent n = 0.67 ± 0.03. This average value of Lg attenuation for the Indian platform is similar to the average for other stable regions of the globe

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its aftershocks: implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (M-w 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a similar to 150 km long and similar to 70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the main-shock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The main-shock initiated similar to 80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards along similar to 117 degrees. azimuth for a duration of similar to 70 s, with varying rupture velocity on a heterogeneous fault surface. The main-shock has been modelled using four subevents, propagating from west-to-east. The first subevent (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of similar to 3.5 km s(-1) on a similar to 6 degrees N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second subevent (20-35 s) ruptured a similar to 18 degrees. Wdipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km s(-1) to 2.5 km s(-1), as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third subevent (35-50 s) ruptured a similar to 7 degrees. N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth subevent (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the main-shock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the main-shock resulted in the largest aftershock (M-w 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the main-shock rupture. Source mechanisms of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the main-shock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.Peer reviewe

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its aftershocks: implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake on 2015 April 25 initiated ∼80 km northwest of the capital city of Katmandu and ruptured ∼150 km of the frictionally locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) beneath the central Nepal Himalaya (Avouac et al. 2015). The earthquake resulted in ∼4 m of average slip of the Himalayan Mountains over the Indian Plate in the SSW direction (Mitra et al. 2015). The main-shock fault spanned between the meisoseismal zone of the 1505 (Mw > 8.5) earthquake to its west (Kumar et al. 2006) and the rupture zone of the 1934 (Mw 8.2–8.4) Nepal earthquake to its east (Bilham & Wallace 2005; Sapkota et al. 2013). The last known great earthquake in this region of Nepal occurred in 1833 (M ∼7.5) (Ambraseys & Douglas 2004) and has a significant overlap with the rupture area of the Gorkha main-shock (Adhikari et al. 2015). The main-shock was followed by a series of moderate-to-strong aftershocks, the largest one (Mw 7.3) occurred 18 d after the main-shock, on 2015 May 12 (Fig. 1). Albeit the loss of life and property inflicted by this damaging earthquake and its aftershocks, it has provided an unprecedented opportunity to study the source properties of Himalayan mega-thrust earthquake and its relationship to the geometry of the MHT, which, so far, is poorly understood

Rossby wave breaking, the upper level jet, and serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in western Europe

Winter 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterized by recurrent clustering of extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic jet and was also associated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. The occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is further studied in 36 years of the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Clustering at 55°N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong eddy-driven jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)°N has a dominance of RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northward (southward). A positive correlation was found between clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships

Complex shallow mantle beneath the Dharwar craton inferred from Rayleigh wave inversion Geophysical Journal International

The 3-D shear velocity structure beneath South India's Dharwar Craton determined from fundamental mode Rayleigh waves phase velocities reveals the existence of anomalously high velocity materials in the depth range of 50–100 km. Tomographic analysis of seismograms recorded on a network of 35 broad-band seismographs shows the uppermost mantle shear wave speeds to be as high as 4.9 km s–1 in the northwestern Dharwar Craton, decreasing both towards the south and the east. Below ∼100 km, the shear wave speed beneath the Dharwar Craton is close to the global average shear wave speed at these depths. Limitations of usable Rayleigh phase periods, however, have restricted the analysis to depths of 120 km, precluding the delineation of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary in this region. However, pressure–temperature analysis of xenoliths in the region suggests a lithospheric thickness of at least ∼185 km during the mid-Proterozoic period. The investigations were motivated by a search for seismic indicators in the shallow mantle beneath the distinctly different parts of the Dharwar Craton otherwise distinguished by their lithologies, ages and crustal structure. Since the ages of cratonic crust and of the associated mantle lithosphere around the globe have been found to be broadly similar and their compositions bimodal in time, any distinguishing features of the various parts of the Dharwar shallow mantle could thus shed light on the craton formation process responsible for stabilizing the craton during the Meso- and Neo-Archean

The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data

Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less intense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high resolution climate model with the aim to determine how important clustering is for windstorm related losses. The role of windstorm clustering is investigated using a quantifiable metric (storm severity index, SSI) that is based on near surface meteorological variables (10-metre wind speed) and is a good proxy for losses. The SSI is used to convert a wind footprint into losses for individual windstorms or seasons. 918 years of a present-day ensemble of coupled climate model simulations from the High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) are compared to ERA-Interim re-analysis. HiGEM is able to successfully reproduce the wintertime North Atlantic/European circulation, and represent the large-scale circulation associated with the serial clustering of European windstorms. We use two measures to identify any changes in the contribution of clustering to the seasonal windstorm loss as a function of return period. Above a return period of 3 years, the accumulated seasonal loss from HiGEM is up to 20% larger than the accumulated seasonal loss from a set of random resamples of the HiGEM data. Seasonal losses are increased by 10-20% relative to randomised seasonal losses at a return period of 200 years. The contribution of the single largest event in a season to the accumulated seasonal loss does not change with return period, generally ranging between 25-50%. Given the realistic dynamical representation of cyclone clustering in HiGEM, and comparable statistics to ERA-Interim, we conclude that our estimation of clustering and its dependence on the return period will be useful for informing the development of risk models for European windstorms, particularly for longer return periods

School-based curriculum development in Scotland: Curriculum policy and enactment

Recent worldwide trends in curriculum policy have re-emphasised the role of teachers in school-based curriculum development. Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence is typical of these trends, stressing that teachers are agents of change. This paper draws upon empirical data to explore school-based curriculum development in response to Curriculum for Excellence. We focus on two case studies – secondary schools within a single Scottish local education authority. In the paper we argue that the nature and extent of innovation in schools is dependent upon teachers being able to make sense of often complex and confusing curriculum policy, including the articulation of a clear vision about what such policy means for education within each school

Identifying phase synchronization clusters in spatially extended dynamical systems

We investigate two recently proposed multivariate time series analysis techniques that aim at detecting phase synchronization clusters in spatially extended, nonstationary systems with regard to field applications. The starting point of both techniques is a matrix whose entries are the mean phase coherence values measured between pairs of time series. The first method is a mean field approach which allows to define the strength of participation of a subsystem in a single synchronization cluster. The second method is based on an eigenvalue decomposition from which a participation index is derived that characterizes the degree of involvement of a subsystem within multiple synchronization clusters. Simulating multiple clusters within a lattice of coupled Lorenz oscillators we explore the limitations and pitfalls of both methods and demonstrate (a) that the mean field approach is relatively robust even in configurations where the single cluster assumption is not entirely fulfilled, and (b) that the eigenvalue decomposition approach correctly identifies the simulated clusters even for low coupling strengths. Using the eigenvalue decomposition approach we studied spatiotemporal synchronization clusters in long-lasting multichannel EEG recordings from epilepsy patients and obtained results that fully confirm findings from well established neurophysiological examination techniques. Multivariate time series analysis methods such as synchronization cluster analysis that account for nonlinearities in the data are expected to provide complementary information which allows to gain deeper insights into the collective dynamics of spatially extended complex systems