Estimating Health Care Costs Among Fragile and Conflict Affected States: an Elastic Net-Risk Measures Approach

Fragile and conflict affected states (FCAS) are those in which the government lacks the political will and/or capacity to provide the basic functions necessary for poverty reduction, economic development, and the security of human rights of their populations.Until recent history, unfortunately, the majority of research conducted and universal health care debates have been centered around middle income and emerging economies. As a result, FCAS have been neglected from many global discussions and decisions. Due to this neglect, many FCAS do not have proper vaccinations and antibiotics. Seemingly, well estimated health care costs are a necessary stepping stone in improving the health of citizens among FCAS. Fortunately, developments in statistical learning theory combined with data obtained by the WBG and Transparency International make it possible to accurately model health care cost among FCAS. The data used in this paper consisted of 35 countries and 89 variables. Of these 89 variables, health care expenditure (HCE) was the only response variable. With 88 predictor variables, there was expected to be multicollinearity, which occurs when multiple variables share relatively large absolute correlation. Since multicollinearity is expected and the number of variables is far greater than the number of observations, this paper adopts Zou and Hastie\u27s method of regularization via elastic net (ENET). In order to accurately estimate the maximum and expected maximum HCE among FCAS, well-known risk measures, such as Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk, and related quantities were obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. This paper obtained risk measures at 95 security level

In-migrants and exclusion in east African rangelands: access, tenure and conflict

East African rangelands have a long history of population mobility linked to competition over key resources, negotiated access, and outright conflict. Both in the literature and in local discourse, in-migration is presented as leading to increased competition, driving poverty and social exclusion on the one hand, and conflict and violence on the other. Current analyses in developing countries identify economic differences, ethnic fault lines, ecological stresses and a breakdown in state provision of human and constitutional rights as factors in driving conflict. The present paper explores this interaction of in-migration and conflict with respect to Kenyan and Tanzanian pastoralist areas and populations. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, patterns of resource access and control in Kenya and Tanzania Maasailand are explored in terms of the ways land and livestock are associated with migration status, ethnicity and wealth or political class. Contrasts and similarities between the two national contexts are used to develop a better understanding of the ways these factors operate under different systems of tenure and access. The conclusion briefly considers implications of these patterns, their potential for exacerbating poverty, and policies for minimising social exclusion and conflict in East African rangelands. / Abstract in French: Les prairies d'Afrique orientale connaissent depuis longtemps une mobilité des populations, liée aux problèmes de concurrence pour les ressources clés, d'accès négocié et de conflits pures et simples. Dans la littérature comme dans le discours local, l'immigration interne est présentée comme cause de concurrence accrue, motrice de pauvreté et d'exclusion sociale d'une part, et de conflit et de violence d'autre part. Des analyses menées actuellement dans les pays en développement identifient comme facteurs moteurs de conflit des écarts économiques, des failles ethniques, des tensions écologiques et une détérioration des droits humains et constitutionnels. Cet article examine l'interaction entre immigration interne et conflit au sein des régions et populations pastorales du Kenya et de la Tanzanie. Il utilise des méthodes quantitatives et qualitatives pour étudier les modèles d'accès et de contrôle des ressources dans le pays masaï du Kenya et de la Tanzanie en termes d'association des terres et du bétail au statut d'immigration, à l'ethnicité et à la catégorie de richesse ou politique. Les contrastes et similarités entre les deux contextes nationaux servent à mieux comprendre le mode de fonctionnement de ces facteurs dans des régimes fonciers et systèmes d'accès différents. La conclusion examine brièvement les implications de ces modèles, leur capacitéà exacerber la pauvreté et les politiques de minimisation de l'exclusion sociale et des conflits dans les prairies d'Afrique orientale

Breaking down banners: analytical approaches to determining the materials of painted banners

Background: This paper investigates a range of analytical techniques to yield information about the materials and processes used in making painted banners. A textile conservator, technical art historian and paintings conservator, and materials scientist have joined forces to develop a greater understanding of the potential of analytical findings in the identification of materials. Results: Visual examination using low level magnification and microscopy proved to be a crucial starting point and for identification of areas for further analysis. High magnification microscopy of cross sections was invaluable to gather information regarding the build-up of the layers, their interaction and condition. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of ion-milled samples showed that different areas of the banner had been prepared in different ways. SEM-EDX (scanning electron microscopy energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy) confirmed the presence of the main elements of pigments. Raman enabled identification of specific pigments. Raman also provided confirmation of specific materials (such as the paint filler). Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) enabled the identification of oil and resin, confirmation of pigments and fibres. Thin layers made sampling and identification challenging. Presence of materials such as silk and lead white dominated some analysis making interpretation of other materials more difficult. Conclusions: Sample preparation had a significant bearing on the effectiveness of the analysis. Ion-milling provided high quality surface on the cross section samples that enabled material interfaces to be clearly seen. The challenges of finding effective wavelengths for analysis of samples using Raman were clearly evident in this study. Microscopy showed fibres blends, easily missed using FTIR, whereas FTIR was particularly effective in the identification of man-made fibres. While portable instrumentation may be useful, for in-depth understanding of the heterogeneous layered materials sample taking still remains crucial. Commercial makers used many typical grounds and pigments but these were used sparingly, in thin layers, in order to produce a flexible object and also perhaps to reduce costs. The textile was however of high quality, in this case silk. Unexpectedly, the preparation layers do not appear to be consistent across the banner; the reasons for this need further investigation

Local properties of patterned vegetation: quantifying endogenous and exogenous effects

Dryland ecosystems commonly exhibit periodic bands of vegetation, thought to form due to competition between individual plants for heterogeneously distributed water. In this paper, we develop a Fourier method for locally identifying the pattern wavenumber and orientation, and apply it to aerial images from a region of vegetation patterning near Fort Stockton, Texas. We find that the local pattern wavelength and orientation are typically coherent, but exhibit both rapid and gradual variation driven by changes in hillslope gradient and orientation, the potential for water accumulation, or soil type. Endogenous pattern dynamics, when simulated for spatially homogeneous topographic and vegetation conditions, predict pattern properties that are much less variable than the orientation and wavelength observed in natural systems. Our local pattern analysis, combined with ancillary datasets describing soil and topographic variation, highlights a largely unexplored correlation between soil depth, pattern coherence, vegetation cover and pattern wavelength. It also, surprisingly, suggests that downslope accumulation of water may play a role in changing vegetation pattern properties

Research on graphite reinforced glass matrix composites

A broad group of fibers and matrices were combined to create a wide range of composite properties. Primary material fabrication procedures were developed which readily permit the fabrication of flat plate and shaped composites. Composite mechanical properties were measured under a wide range of test conditions. Tensile, flexure mechanical fatigue, thermal fatigue, fracture toughness, and fatigue crack growth resistance were evaluated. Selected fiber-matrix combinations were shown to maintain their strength at up to 1300 K when tested in an inert atmosphere. Composite high temperature mechanical properties were shown to be limited primarily by the oxidation resistance of the graphite fibers. Composite thermal dimensional stability was measured and found to be excellent

Search for Contact Interactions in the Dimuon Final State at ATLAS

The Standard Model has been successful in describing many fundamental aspects of particle physics. However, there are some remaining puzzles that are not explained within the context of its present framework. We discuss the possibility to discover new physics in the ATLAS Detector via a four-fermion contact interaction, much in the same way Fermi first described Weak interactions. Using a simple ratio method on dimuon events, we can set a 95% C.L. lower limit on the effective scale Lambda = 7.5 TeV (8.7 TeV) for the constructive Left-left Isoscalar Model of quark compositeness with 100 pb^-1 (200 pb^-1) of data at sqrt{s} = 10 TeV.Comment: To be published in the proceedings of DPF-2009, Detroit, MI, July 2009, eConf C09072

Construction and Software Design for a Microcomputer Controlled pH/Ion Titrator

The construction of an automated titration device is described. The major components include an Apple II+ Microcomputer and 8-bit parallel interface. Fisher Accumet, Model 520 Digital pH/lon Meter, Gilmont Micrometer Buret of 2.5 mL capacity, Sigma stepper motor, power supply and driver to operate the buret, and a constant temperature bath of ± 0.005 °C stability. The limitations of the system are 0.001 pH/0.1 mv for the pH/ion sensing system, and 0.125 μL per step for the buret. The system as described is designed to determine equilibrium constants for metal ion-amino acid complexes. By changing the software a variety of different pH and redox titration experiments may be performed. A computer program used to operate the stepper motor driven syringe buret and record the pH from a digital pH meter is described. The program uses both Apple BASIC and assembly language. This is a closed loop operation in which the data from the pH meter is used to control the amount of reagent delivered by the buret. The results are displayed graphically as the titration proceeds. The variance of the pH readings are calculated using an assembly language subroutine and the calculations are done with zero round-off error

Simultaneous Multiwavelength Observations of Magnetic Activity in Ultracool Dwarfs. IV. The Active, Young Binary NLTT 33370 AB (=2MASS J13142039+1320011)

We present multi-epoch simultaneous radio, optical, H{\alpha}, UV, and X-ray observations of the active, young, low-mass binary NLTT 33370 AB (blended spectral type M7e). This system is remarkable for its extreme levels of magnetic activity: it is the most radio-luminous ultracool dwarf (UCD) known, and here we show that it is also one of the most X-ray luminous UCDs known. We detect the system in all bands and find a complex phenomenology of both flaring and periodic variability. Analysis of the optical light curve reveals the simultaneous presence of two periodicities, 3.7859 $\pm$ 0.0001 and 3.7130 $\pm$ 0.0002 hr. While these differ by only ~2%, studies of differential rotation in the UCD regime suggest that it cannot be responsible for the two signals. The system's radio emission consists of at least three components: rapid 100% polarized flares, bright emission modulating periodically in phase with the optical emission, and an additional periodic component that appears only in the 2013 observational campaign. We interpret the last of these as a gyrosynchrotron feature associated with large-scale magnetic fields and a cool, equatorial plasma torus. However, the persistent rapid flares at all rotational phases imply that small-scale magnetic loops are also present and reconnect nearly continuously. We present an SED of the blended system spanning more than 9 orders of magnitude in wavelength. The significant magnetism present in NLTT 33370 AB will affect its fundamental parameters, with the components' radii and temperatures potentially altered by ~+20% and ~-10%, respectively. Finally, we suggest spatially resolved observations that could clarify many aspects of this system's nature.Comment: emulateapj, 22 pages, 15 figures, ApJ in press; v2: fixes low-impact error in Figure 15; v3: now in-pres

Open cell fire-resistant foam

Candidate polyphosphazene polymers were investigated to develop a fire-resistant, thermally stable and flexible open cell foam. The copolymers were prepared in several mole ratios of the substituent side chains and a (nominal) 40:60 derivative was selected for formulation studies. Synthesis of the polymers involved solution by polymerization of hexachlorophosphazene to soluble high molecular weight poly(dichlorophosphazene), followed by derivatization of the resultant polymer in a normal fashion to give polymers in high yield and high molecular weight. Small amounts of a cure site were incorporated into the polymer for vulcanization purposes. The poly(aryloxyphosphazenes) exhibited good thermal stability and the first polymer mentioned above exhibited the best thermal behavior of all the candidate polymers studied